It's the Auburn Realist: Ole Miss Preview......Government Shutdown Edition! I woke up this morning and realized that I had not done my (nearly) weekly habit of previewing this game. A lot of that has something to do with the fact that I am not on my lunch break at work. And that's because I am currently furloughed. The bigger problem is that I don't really have a computer at home.
So, I had to dig this old crusty lap top out of the closet. It's easily from 2005. It doesn't connect to wireless. It's battery is dead. And the DVD drive is busted out of it. But it works... Ok, so the baby is asleep. Griffin is watching the tube. Aubree is at school. And I have the house cleaned up. So let's get to it while the laundry is still drying.
Auburn is coming off of a bye week. Much needed too. Judging by the reports on AL.com, there are a ton of impact players coming back from injury and all signs point to play time. Ole Miss is coming off of a loss at Alabama. And while the media (And every Bama fan I know) labeled this as a dominating performance, I suggest we take a quick step back and use our brain.
Let's talk Ole Miss for a second. In typical Ole Miss fashion, they are starting another polarizing QB in Bo Wallace. He seems to be another QB in a lines going back to Jevon Snead in whom you don't know what to expect from game to game. The kid ha talent, we call have seen it. But he can melt down in impressive fashion. While I have been critical of Freeze in the past, I was especially amazed on his play calling on Saturday against the Tide. TAKE THE POINTS, FREEZE! Honestly. You never leave points on the field against a number 1 team. You especially don't leave points on the field against a team that is having offensive issues. Furthermore, a QB draw on the 1? Wow. Anyway, Ole Miss has some play makers in Moncreif and Treadwell. But, Moncreif never seems to show up in a tight game. THat may not be his fault. And Treadwell is a redshirt freshman that benefited early in the year from being widely unknown and matched up with the 2nd or 3rd best DB on opposing teams. I don't think that will happen against Auburn. Their D is decent. And I don't even consider it because of Nkemdiche The Younger. They were a solid group last year. But, again, they don't have the depth yet to provide anything more than terrific spot play. Then there is the aforementioned play calling from Freeze. There is no doubt that he is good when he is good. When he has opposing defenses on their heels, he knows how to stick the knife in deeper. The problem is adjustments and clutch calls against decent opponents. And before you talk about all the great things he has done, let us recall that they were still 7-7 last year. Ok, that's more than I normally say about opposing teams, so let's move on to the points that matter.
Defense There was a ton of news that has come out in the last 2 days regarding returning players from injuries. That's never a bad thing. Jones is back from a foot injury. Davis is back from an ankle. Perhaps the most interesting bit of news was the Eguae's move to DT. That seemed to stem from Sanders' return to full speed, Blackson's inability to crash the pocket, and the rapid development of Adam's as a 3rd and long pass rusher. The secondary, despite the rash of injuries and slim depth, has played well with players that were backups in the preseason. It's easy to think that their play will be even better with the return of "starters". But, don't expect the starting line up to change drastically from what we saw against LSU. Being the Tempo man who understands pace and rhythm, Malzhan knows when to ride a hot hand, example: Therezie. LSU exposed what we (if you have been reading these previews) already knew about the Auburn defense. It's soft in the middle and the MLB play is lacking. If the offensive line can stall the D-Line or get a push, and another offensive player can engage the MLB, you can break off long runs on the inside. Time after time against LSU, Copeland was either (to steal a line from AUFamily forums) giving Holland a free ride to Arkansas or at least tying him up, the RB was in the secondary before anyone knew it was a run play.
In the words of Hubart Farnsworth: "Great News Everybody!" Scott isn't a between the tackles runner and Johnson has at least made an attempt to shore up this issue. The move of Eguae inside may be the answer. One thing is certain, Blackson and Co were having zero net effect on the game, and were in fact, the weakness of this defense. Honestly, it couldn't get worse. If he can make any impact what so ever, the Rebs are in for a long day. Now, start the Holland bashing. He must practice fantastic because his game play in a physical run game is pitiful. And while we said that Scott wasn't an inside threat, Wallace is. He is a 6'4" wrecking ball, very similar to what we saw with Prescott in the MSU game. This COULD be trouble. But, again, if the DTs can get a push (which they haven't done YET), it will be ok. I expect the passing game to be nil for Ole Miss. While the D-Line may not get to him, he has proven that he would rather run than sit in the pocket and wait for a receiver to break loose. I don't expect Scott to have much impact in the run game. I do expect him to have some impact catching the ball out of the backfield, similar...but not to the extent of....last year. I see him getting 50 yards on the ground and 50 yards in the air. He will get most of those recieving yards on one impact play. Treadwell will catch a fair amount of slants and underneath routes, but the DBs from Auburn have shown that they can make solid tackles, though I can see them botching an early slant for a TD. Possibly a short yardage or down-and-goal play where they go for the ball and miss. The only real damage I see is from the feet of Wallace. With the inability of the D-Line to collapse the pocket, Wallace will run early and often right at the MLB. While this will provide impressive stats at the end of the game, it won't win the game. The key for Auburn's defense is to disrupt Freeze's script. He has a progression of plays he calls when he has the ball moving. And if you can force him out of that script, he falters. Just as he did against Alabama. He will learn from some of his mistakes and kick field goals, though. But Malzhan won't.
Offense Ole Miss has played terrific in spots for the last two years. They even had a couple of great complete games last year. This D is just as good, but it still doesn't have the depth. Auburn, on the other hand, is going to hit stride Saturday. If the LSU game taught us anything, it's that this offense can score on anybody, and do so consistently. While the 1st quarter was as ugly as I have seen in the modern era, the rest of the game was fairly impressive. Honestly, Auburn is 3 plays from winning that game. Granted, that's the difference in a loss or win for ANY team, so I am not making excuses for them. But, luck is luck...even when it's a dropped punt, a fumbled hand off, what have you. I don't know if Marshall will ever loose that deer in the head lights look this year. Everyone is thinking the same thing. He seems to get over anxious or nervous in key plays. It's so easy to say "oh, he will settle down." After all, the same was said after his first start. Then his first SEC game. Now it's being said about his first game against a big time opponent. What will we say after this week? It's his first hangover game? No. I don't expect him to get over his nervous tendencies. I do expect him to elevate all aspects of his game otherwise. Will he miss open receivers? Yes. Will he fumble the ball? Statistics say yes. The question is....will he have that play and get his act together for the rest of the game? I believe he does, and does so well.
Folks, I truly believe this is when the Tigers hit stride offensively. That doesn't mean they will become unbeatable. Far from it. I still think they loose to A&M and UGA. But I think they show that they have more than flash in the pan plays and start playing complete games. It's taught for me really to predict exactly what we will see because I think there are favorable match ups all over the field. I know a lot of people are expecting fireworks from both sides, but I think we will only be seeing it from one side. I think Mason has another big game. Ole Miss is susceptible to the run up the middle and Mason is one of the best 1 cut and go runners out there. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 150 yards and 2 TDs.
CAP has really struggled the last few weeks and I think a lot of that just has to do with the amount of touches he has gotten. I don't think this is the game where he gets rolling and I only see him getting 5 -7 touches. Grant is poised to have another 5 touch 100 yard game, but most of it will come on 1 play, as usual. However, with his injuries, I don't really think he will see the field. Instead, I expect him to sit it out, have a good tune up game next week to get ready for A&M.
I expect Marshall to have a good game. 250 passing and a couple of TDs and 50 yards rushing and another TD. The offensive line is going to give him enough time to settle in after the first 2 drives and really conduct the offense. We will see the game manager Marshall who will learn to be patient. He will get loose once or twice, just for kicks. Defensively, Wallace will give the interior of the defense fits early on and will continue to pile up useless yards on the ground.
The Line This game has always had some sort of hype, for good and for bad. I expect Freeze's first and second possession script to go well and he will pile up 10 points in the first quarter. I expect Auburn to fall behind with inadequate play. But, the adjustments will be made halfway through the 2nd Quarter and the route will be on. Auburn wins 31-13
Thursday, October 3, 2013
Friday, September 27, 2013
Book Review: World War Z
I read this book for the first time way back when it first came out in 2006. It was sitting on the "new" shelf at Barnes & Nobles and it caught my eye, which is usually how I shop for books.
The book was labeled as "satire" but the back cover made the book seem right up my alley, so I bought it.
I read this entire book in one day. I know many people who review literature say that....but in this case...I really mean it. I read it cover-to-cover in one work day.
It has now become a major movie that millions have seen. I imagine a lot of people went out and saw this movie and then bought the novel.
Here is a brief description of the novel taken from Amazon
The Zombie War came unthinkably close to eradicating humanity. Max Brooks, driven by the urgency of preserving the acid-etched first-hand experiences of the survivors from those apocalyptic years, traveled across the United States of America and throughout the world, from decimated cities that once teemed with upwards of thirty million souls to the most remote and inhospitable areas of the planet. He recorded the testimony of men, women, and sometimes children who came face-to-face with the living, or at least the undead, hell of that dreadful time. World War Z is the result. Never before have we had access to a document that so powerfully conveys the depth of fear and horror, and also the ineradicable spirit of resistance, that gripped human society through the plague years.
Ranging from the now infamous village of New Dachang in the United Federation of China, where the epidemiological trail began with the twelve-year-old Patient Zero, to the unnamed northern forests where untold numbers sought a terrible and temporary refuge in the cold, to the United States of Southern Africa, where the Redeker Plan provided hope for humanity at an unspeakable price, to the west-of-the-Rockies redoubt where the North American tide finally started to turn, this invaluable chronicle reflects the full scope and duration of the Zombie War.
Most of all, the book captures with haunting immediacy the human dimension of this epochal event. Facing the often raw and vivid nature of these personal accounts requires a degree of courage on the part of the reader, but the effort is invaluable because, as Mr. Brooks says in his introduction, “By excluding the human factor, aren’t we risking the kind of personal detachment from history that may, heaven forbid, lead us one day to repeat it? And in the end, isn’t the human factor the only true difference between us and the enemy we now refer to as ‘the living dead’?”
What I like about this book
I pretty much liked everything about this book. Probably the thing that stands out is, despite devoting only a few pages to each "survivor", he develops characters extremely well. Now, it helps that he uses wide ranging nationalities and races, but even in the cases of Americans, he diversifies them so that each account is very different and unique while still maintaining a common theme. This is a unique writing style that makes it very hard to skip anything because of monotony. You have to slow down and reread many sections so that you can understand the difference between the characters and their particular situation.
Fundamentally, the thing I most liked was the thought provoking that this book caused in me. While I have always liked literature and movies in this particular genre, this is the first time that I started to question myself. Much of that is derived from the above point and comparing myself to these people he describes. Would I be "Ready"? Would I understand when the "end" started? Would I have the sense enough to make a move? And, the thought that I really learned from this book: Would I make a move BEFORE everyone else?
A large difference between this novel and other similar works is the additional humanity of "survival of a family" rather than "survival of yourself." It's one of the first works that has stressed how infinitely more difficult it is to prepare yourself AND your family instead of thinking only of yourself.
This novel paints a terrific picture of how the average person doesn't have the wherewithal to know when there is a serious problem, doesn't have the guts to trust their instincts, doesn't the most basic of skills to survive, and doesn't know how far to take things in the worst of situations.
What I don't like about this movie
There isn't anything I dislike about the book itself. What I don't like about it was that it was turned into a watered down movie that, while entertaining, really had ZERO to do with the book. It would have been a perfect opportunity to educate people who generally don't read. Now, I realize that people didn't go see this movie to be educated but to be entertained. But as someone who read the book years ago, this movie came off as a a simple attempt to make a few dollars off of a brand name. The movie could have easily been called anything else and no one would have had any idea that it was derived from this novel.
Why You should buy this book
While it is wildly entertaining, it is also incredibly empowering. It may not give you any additional tools to survive a catastrophe, but it may cause you to realize just how unprepared you are for one, which is infinitely more important. Even as a person who has grown up camping, hunting, fishing, and even prepping, this work still provoked me to reexamine myself. Particularly, that survival isn't just fending for myself, it's fending for my whole family and how that dynamic situations is much harder and much more important.
This book is entertaining and thought provoking while also being very easy to read. I give it 4.5 Stars.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Product Review for Taurus 85PFS .38 Special Composite Frame Revolver
While shopping, I noticed that these Taurus revolvers were on sale for an affordable $329 dollars. I read a few reviews on the spot and decided to purchase it.
Here is what Taurus has to say about their product:
The Protector Polymer in .38 Special +P blends a unique design with modern updates that weighs in at a scant 18.2 ounces. This smart little number draws quickly with a full spur hammer. Just like its cousins it’s a best buy in its size now in a cool new set-up
| Model: 85PFS | |
| Finish: Blue | |
| Status: Discontinued | |
| Caliber: .38 SPL +P RATED | |
| Grips: Rubber | |
| UPC: 7-25327-61068-7 | |
| Capacity: 5 | |
| Weight: 18.2 oz | |
| Barrel Length: 2.5" | |
| Height: 4.4" | |
| Frame: Small | |
| Width: 1.3" | |
| Action: DA/SA | |
| Front Sight: Fixed w/fiber optic (red) | |
| Safety: Taurus Security System,Transfer Bar | |
| Trigger Type: Smooth | |
| Order #: 2-850021PFS | |
| MSRP: $299.00 | |
| Rear Sight:
Fixed Initial Thoughts Initially, I was very concerned with how what the pistol's behavior would be when shooting. Specifically, with it being a composite frame, I was concerned it would be brutal on recoil and vibration. Additionally, I was concerned with the accuracy of such a short barrel. When playing with it, I noticed that the cylinder was fairly stiff and that it prevented free spinning. You could also not play cowboy by slapping the cylinder in and out of the frame. Lastly, while the grips are very comfortable, I have worried about their longevity. But, I have owned my .357 for 2 years and it hasn't had any problems. So far, the .38 hasn't had any problems. But, I LOVED the low weight. I loved the single/double action. After Further Review Shooting this gun was extremely surprising and I am happy to report I am completely satisfied with the guns performance. It is easy to shoot and it doesn't beat the shooter. The composite frame and light weight don't effect the behavior. Additionally, accuracy doesn't seem to be negatively impacted by the short barrel and the shooter has the benefit of having excellent sites on this gun from the factor. The double action works great. Pros
Cons
Originally I bought this gun to stick in my wife's purse and never see again. But, on the 4th of July, I pulled it out and shot it. It was a ton of fun and now it has made it's way into the range bag any time I head out to shoot. It's hard to beat for the price. My only regret is that I wish I would have bought the .357 instead.
|
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Things Fallout 3 Taught Me About Surviving EOTWAWKI Part 1
I have never been much of a video game player. My mom never let me sit around and play video games as a child. While I did go through a Halo phase while in college, the only real game addiction I ever had was to Fallout 3.
Fallout 3 is a roll playing game/first person shooter that takes place in the year 2277, over 200 years after the great war. You play a self-styled character who has escaped The Vault and you find yourself in an extremely hostile world of which you are completely unprepared for. How the game goes is now on you. For more information on this awesome game, check out the Fallout Wiki.
I don't know how many hours I logged in this game, and while there is an "official" end of the game, you can play this game forever. There are a finite amount of missions and side quests, but the game is never truly over. I know at one point that I had 40 hours logged and I had completed about a 5 missions. Anyways, while it's just a game and all 100% fictional, there are some very important things to learn from this game on dealing with the post-apocalyptic world. This is on in fun, now....so...let's hear some of yours!
Fallout 3 is a roll playing game/first person shooter that takes place in the year 2277, over 200 years after the great war. You play a self-styled character who has escaped The Vault and you find yourself in an extremely hostile world of which you are completely unprepared for. How the game goes is now on you. For more information on this awesome game, check out the Fallout Wiki.
I don't know how many hours I logged in this game, and while there is an "official" end of the game, you can play this game forever. There are a finite amount of missions and side quests, but the game is never truly over. I know at one point that I had 40 hours logged and I had completed about a 5 missions. Anyways, while it's just a game and all 100% fictional, there are some very important things to learn from this game on dealing with the post-apocalyptic world. This is on in fun, now....so...let's hear some of yours!
- There is a reason it's called The Wasteland. Traipsing through the bush is a way to find new places, discover caches of weapons and riches untold, but there is a reason why no one lives out here. Additionally, when you randomly come across corpses, there is usually a reason. Go ahead and loot the corpse, but it may be best to find another way. It's awfully easy to fall in a deep hole. Or stumble across a pack of ravenous animals. Or worse.
- Radiation is a bad thing, but it isn't what people commonly think of it. Radiation doesn't just cold-cock you. It kills you slowly. And, surprisingly, the body can deal with a lot of it over time. If you are forced to either take a little radiation that MIGHT hurt you or skirt a radiated zone through an area populated with miscreants who will surely hurt you, maybe you should suck it up.
- When in a populated area, never show your cards. Specifically, if you are armed, don't announce it by openly carrying. It's almost always better to have people underestimate you. Furthermore, some people may see you as a direct threat and may open fire on you for no reason other than they really like what you have. And, they typically do it behind your back.
- Rocket launchers in an enclosed environment are always a bad idea. So are hand grenades and Molotov cocktails. Just avoid incendiary devices inside at all times. Too many bad things can happen too quickly.
- Just because there was no one on your path heading one way doesn't mean there won't be one on the way back. And when you are tracking someone, never forget that someone may be tracking you...or hoping you are following.
- Travel light whenever possible. Believe it or not, there is only so much weapons and ammo that you can carry. If you find something extremely important that you want to take with you, it's better not to have to decide whether to drop the missile launcher or the sniper rifle just to have a free hand. Furthermore, the more you carry, the more clumsy and slow you are. If you are overburdened with armor, an assault rifle, and rocket launcher, and 50 pounds of other supplies, its hard to move quietly or quickly.
- Gauge confrontations very carefully. If you really want to ambush someone, make sure you do an adequate job scouting. Sometimes it's better just to make a note and keep on walking. Anything nice won't be yours for the taking without a fight. And, like my grandfather always said...for every 1 that you see are 4 that you don't.
- Know when to run. Believe it or not, sometimes you will stumble into situations that you don't want to shoot out of. Sometimes the tables can get turned on an otherwise good looking situations and even really bad shots can get a lucky one in every once in awhile. Your first instinct in any unplanned encounter should be to run.
- Always have a planned exit strategy if things go to pot. You never want to run through an area you have never been through before. It's hard to pay much attention while you are running fill-tilt. You may not pay any attention to all the trip wires set up to the landmines of someone's booby trap.
- Never take people at face value and always consider what would happen if they get a better deal elsewhere. People get desperate. People are also selfish and greedy. You always have to assume that if there is something you want from someone, someone else will want it to. And, they may pay more.
- Weapon maintenance is extremely important. Take care of your own weapons. Never pick up a weapon off the ground and expect it to save your life. It may simply not fire at all or it just might blow up in your face entirely.
- Always be aware of your surroundings, especially when entering a conflict. Know where to fight from and where to run to. You may have thought it out and have a great ambush spot with hard cover and great angles. You may not have considered that your hard cover is a car filled with gas. Maybe your opponent does and rolls a grenade under it. Or maybe he just gets a lucky shot in and blows the gas tank. You may have picked out a great water tower to pick people off with your sniper rifle. But what happens if they figure out where you are and surround the bottom of the ladder? That could make for a long few days.
- It's amazing what you can learn if you sit still and listen. This applies for everything from a crowded bar to the wilderness. Just sit still and listen. The world will tell you all you need to know. It's truly sad how free people are with information.
- Even in the EOTWAWKI, people will always want a way out through drugs. Things can get bad, but you will only make them worse by partaking. People on drugs are willing to do anything to feel better. Sometimes you can use this to your advantage. When you come across drugs, they provide an easy means of making some cash or procuring a favor from an addict. Conversely, always be aware of addicts. Never trust them or turn your back on them.
- It really is a small world. Realize that how you deal with 1 person can drastically change your outlook in life. You never know when you are dealing with someone's great great uncle's cousin's best friend. Months or years after an encounter with someone, don't be surprised when someone you never met before sits down across from you while pointing a gun at your face. When in doubt, treat people cautiously and professionally if you don't know them. And remember, as we said before, you may be a straight shooter, but that doesn't mean everyone else isn't a lying cheater, deadbeat, or desperate individual.
- Never take on a job until you know the whole story and both sides of it. The well dressed, hospitable person that approached you to take a job eliminating some grubby deadbeat farmer may seem like the good guy and the job may seem to be on the up and up. Or maybe he is making you do his dirty work so that he can profit off the deaths of innocent people. Make sure you address all the angles. You may be working for the wrong guy. Furthermore, any time you take a secret mission of great importance, specifically to off someone, realize that you are probably the next one on the list.
- People in woe and want will almost always turn to a cooky religion to explain their plight. Many times they will idolize random things. So don't be surprised when you walk into a town where the people worship an unexploded nuclear weapon. And while you might not align with their beliefs, respect them. It may just be an object to you. It may be worth killing over for them.
There are a ton of other fun facts I learned from Fallout 3, though many of you will question the validity of dealing with rad-scorpions and mutants. So, I decided to stick with more....useful...tidbits of knowledge I learned from Fallout. Again, these are all in fun an I don't expect you to truly be mystified by any of it.
The Auburn Realist: The LSU Review
Sometimes it's nice to be wrong. I know a lot of people were hoping I would be wrong about this game, at least the score anyway.
Alas, it wasn't to be. While I really would love to have seen Auburn win this game and I would happily accept being wrong, it just wasn't in the cards. The upside is, I was essentially correct on most every point from my LSU Preview Predictions. Good for at least one person...eh? Maybe. Unless you read about what I thought this loss would do for the team....
First off, we all saw the Auburn vs LSU usual fanfare about the fire game and the earthquake game. So, 1:1 to start off the night. Considering some of my other predictions,like the Mississippi Game Review, I will take being right whenever I can get it!
Offense
We read all week about taking the chains off of the offense and letting Marshall do his thing. I voiced my concern that I didn't expect there to be any functional difference to the offense this week as opposed to previous weeks aside from maybe letting him scramble and having a few more designed runs. I expected to see at least 2 deep balls get thrown and at least 1 of them to get caught, though I didn't really expect it to be for a TD. Correct on both accounts. Marshall threw the deep ball early but couldn't seem to connect in the first half. At times it was downright painful to see him throw the ball. Down by 21 coming out of the locker room, he continued to throw it deep and connected on several including a 52 yarder to Coates who is rapidly becoming his favorite deep receiver. But, like I said in the preview, LSU isn't a team that gets beat by a few long throws like most teams. The rain certainly hurt Marshall, who couldn't make the ball do anything right as long as the rain was coming down. At times the ball came out of his hands and nobody knew where it would go. The passes ranged from wildly inaccurate to dead-on perfect at times, specifically, the 52 yards to Coates. Marshall made a post game comment about his small hands. Having throwing a lot of football in my life, I can tell you that having small hands and throwing in the rain do not mix. His rushing wasn't earth-shattering, and while it certainly helped, it was game breaking. He was kept out of the endzone, which really is all that matters for the LSU defense. His long run of the night was 15 yards and he averaged only 3.3 yards. In all, Marshall had a pedestrian day with 0 TDs and 2 picks while throwing for 224 yards.His running, as stated, was ok though he added a fumble very early that really set the tone for the evening.
As I expected, Mason had a terrific game. The weakness of this LSU team is against the run, believe it or not. Mason averaged over 5 yards per carry with a long of 17. 132 total rushing yards and 2 TDs for the Junior in what may be his best single game so far. The middle of the LSU defense is weak against a dynamic RB.
As per the prediction, CAP and Grant were essentially non-factors although CAP did have a TD, which I really shouldn't downplay, I guess.
I wasn't on par with Marcus Davis who only had 2 catches.
Instead, Coates stepped up with 139 yards of receiving and the 52 yard bomb. That would have been nice to have gone to the house, though. I won't deny that I am pleased with his development. But, it still seems like if it isn't drops, it's badly thrown balls. Then again, I said it in the prediction...statistics say that they can't all be bad. He made good on what he could this week.
Defense
I have talked to at least 20 people about this game. I listened to what they said before I gave any synopsis. What did 100% of them say? "That guy at middle linebacker KILLED you." I was at a party Saturday night with fans from across the nation. What's absolutely PATHETIC to me is that they all know who Jake Holland is. And not because he is a stellar player, either. The guy must practice FANTASTIC during the week because he doesn't play worth anything during the game. The fullback, Copeland, absolutely abused him in the first quarter on two different plays. The 49 yarder was painful to watch because Holland stepped right in front of the block and never even extended an arm to make a play. Like we said in previous weeks...you have to get off the blocks. Don't believe me? Check out the vid.
Hill's 49 yarder
Or the 11 yarder after the fumbled punt? Yep. Copeland OWNED him in the hole. I mean, Holland was taken 5 yards out of the box.
Hill's 11 yarder
Did he do anything good? Yeah. He made a sack....and he struggled to get Mettenburger down on it.
The rest of the game on defense? Surprisingly pretty good. I mean, after the first quarter, Hill around had 2 TDs and a ton of yardage. While he did have a career night, a 4th down fumble and a fumbled punt really helped him out. Auburn did manage to nab an INT at the hands of Whitehead. They recorded a couple of sacks, and a fumble. They held a smokin' hot Mettenburger to a season low 229 yards in the air and only 1 passing TD when he had been on fire against other reams.
The Line
I predicted that each team would hit a field goal and the score would be 24-17. Neither team attempted a FG and LSU had the benefit of two early turnovers converted to TDs that turned the tide early. It's been a long time since Auburn has committed such a grievous mistake as dropping a punt on the goal line, and as good as I did with this game, I didn't see that happening. Nor did I see putting the ball on the dirt on a 4th and 1. Honestly though, I was much more upset at running a read-option on 4th down than the fumble. I still believe that was the absolute wrong call to make. Simplicity and quickness are what I would have called myself. To be honest, I would have punted it and wouldn't have thought twice about it.
In fact, what's up with 5 4th down attempts, anyway? Hmm.....
Auburn killed themselves with their turnovers, but I had already set myself up with a Silver Lining. I said that this would be a learning experience for this team and that a loss would be the best thing to help the team grow. I hold firm in that. The first quarter aside, this team went nose-to-nose in almost every stat category. They converted 3rd downs, though not enough. They held on to the ball. They played pretty good defense. Most importantly, this team didn't give up. The LSU fans were streaming out at half. I admit that I was already outside throwing Frisbee after the 1st quarter before my wife roped me back in for the 3rd quarter. Last years team would have been on the bus at halftime. This team came out and scored 21 points. And was inches from converting an onside kick that might have meant a world's amount of difference. I think Marshall sees that he has a team that won't quit on him. He sees playmakers that are deadly when he is patient with them. Most importantly, he sees that he alone can self-destruct a game when he tries to make things happen himself. I believe he will be nearly lights out for the rest of the season.
Defensively, this unit gets better and better...except that they have a gaping hole in the middle. If they can keep people from running right at the middle, they can be a force in every game. But, opposing coaches aren't in the bushiness of letting weaknesses go untested, are they?
While off on the score, I feel like I was nearly spot on with everything else. A Solid A for this weeks grade.
Alas, it wasn't to be. While I really would love to have seen Auburn win this game and I would happily accept being wrong, it just wasn't in the cards. The upside is, I was essentially correct on most every point from my LSU Preview Predictions. Good for at least one person...eh? Maybe. Unless you read about what I thought this loss would do for the team....
First off, we all saw the Auburn vs LSU usual fanfare about the fire game and the earthquake game. So, 1:1 to start off the night. Considering some of my other predictions,like the Mississippi Game Review, I will take being right whenever I can get it!
Offense
We read all week about taking the chains off of the offense and letting Marshall do his thing. I voiced my concern that I didn't expect there to be any functional difference to the offense this week as opposed to previous weeks aside from maybe letting him scramble and having a few more designed runs. I expected to see at least 2 deep balls get thrown and at least 1 of them to get caught, though I didn't really expect it to be for a TD. Correct on both accounts. Marshall threw the deep ball early but couldn't seem to connect in the first half. At times it was downright painful to see him throw the ball. Down by 21 coming out of the locker room, he continued to throw it deep and connected on several including a 52 yarder to Coates who is rapidly becoming his favorite deep receiver. But, like I said in the preview, LSU isn't a team that gets beat by a few long throws like most teams. The rain certainly hurt Marshall, who couldn't make the ball do anything right as long as the rain was coming down. At times the ball came out of his hands and nobody knew where it would go. The passes ranged from wildly inaccurate to dead-on perfect at times, specifically, the 52 yards to Coates. Marshall made a post game comment about his small hands. Having throwing a lot of football in my life, I can tell you that having small hands and throwing in the rain do not mix. His rushing wasn't earth-shattering, and while it certainly helped, it was game breaking. He was kept out of the endzone, which really is all that matters for the LSU defense. His long run of the night was 15 yards and he averaged only 3.3 yards. In all, Marshall had a pedestrian day with 0 TDs and 2 picks while throwing for 224 yards.His running, as stated, was ok though he added a fumble very early that really set the tone for the evening.
As I expected, Mason had a terrific game. The weakness of this LSU team is against the run, believe it or not. Mason averaged over 5 yards per carry with a long of 17. 132 total rushing yards and 2 TDs for the Junior in what may be his best single game so far. The middle of the LSU defense is weak against a dynamic RB.
As per the prediction, CAP and Grant were essentially non-factors although CAP did have a TD, which I really shouldn't downplay, I guess.
I wasn't on par with Marcus Davis who only had 2 catches.
Instead, Coates stepped up with 139 yards of receiving and the 52 yard bomb. That would have been nice to have gone to the house, though. I won't deny that I am pleased with his development. But, it still seems like if it isn't drops, it's badly thrown balls. Then again, I said it in the prediction...statistics say that they can't all be bad. He made good on what he could this week.
Defense
I have talked to at least 20 people about this game. I listened to what they said before I gave any synopsis. What did 100% of them say? "That guy at middle linebacker KILLED you." I was at a party Saturday night with fans from across the nation. What's absolutely PATHETIC to me is that they all know who Jake Holland is. And not because he is a stellar player, either. The guy must practice FANTASTIC during the week because he doesn't play worth anything during the game. The fullback, Copeland, absolutely abused him in the first quarter on two different plays. The 49 yarder was painful to watch because Holland stepped right in front of the block and never even extended an arm to make a play. Like we said in previous weeks...you have to get off the blocks. Don't believe me? Check out the vid.
Hill's 49 yarder
Or the 11 yarder after the fumbled punt? Yep. Copeland OWNED him in the hole. I mean, Holland was taken 5 yards out of the box.
Hill's 11 yarder
Did he do anything good? Yeah. He made a sack....and he struggled to get Mettenburger down on it.
The rest of the game on defense? Surprisingly pretty good. I mean, after the first quarter, Hill around had 2 TDs and a ton of yardage. While he did have a career night, a 4th down fumble and a fumbled punt really helped him out. Auburn did manage to nab an INT at the hands of Whitehead. They recorded a couple of sacks, and a fumble. They held a smokin' hot Mettenburger to a season low 229 yards in the air and only 1 passing TD when he had been on fire against other reams.
The Line
I predicted that each team would hit a field goal and the score would be 24-17. Neither team attempted a FG and LSU had the benefit of two early turnovers converted to TDs that turned the tide early. It's been a long time since Auburn has committed such a grievous mistake as dropping a punt on the goal line, and as good as I did with this game, I didn't see that happening. Nor did I see putting the ball on the dirt on a 4th and 1. Honestly though, I was much more upset at running a read-option on 4th down than the fumble. I still believe that was the absolute wrong call to make. Simplicity and quickness are what I would have called myself. To be honest, I would have punted it and wouldn't have thought twice about it.
In fact, what's up with 5 4th down attempts, anyway? Hmm.....
Auburn killed themselves with their turnovers, but I had already set myself up with a Silver Lining. I said that this would be a learning experience for this team and that a loss would be the best thing to help the team grow. I hold firm in that. The first quarter aside, this team went nose-to-nose in almost every stat category. They converted 3rd downs, though not enough. They held on to the ball. They played pretty good defense. Most importantly, this team didn't give up. The LSU fans were streaming out at half. I admit that I was already outside throwing Frisbee after the 1st quarter before my wife roped me back in for the 3rd quarter. Last years team would have been on the bus at halftime. This team came out and scored 21 points. And was inches from converting an onside kick that might have meant a world's amount of difference. I think Marshall sees that he has a team that won't quit on him. He sees playmakers that are deadly when he is patient with them. Most importantly, he sees that he alone can self-destruct a game when he tries to make things happen himself. I believe he will be nearly lights out for the rest of the season.
Defensively, this unit gets better and better...except that they have a gaping hole in the middle. If they can keep people from running right at the middle, they can be a force in every game. But, opposing coaches aren't in the bushiness of letting weaknesses go untested, are they?
While off on the score, I feel like I was nearly spot on with everything else. A Solid A for this weeks grade.
Friday, September 20, 2013
Basic Mechanics Skills and Knowing Vehicular Limitations Part 1
Follow me on Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter!
Basic mechanical knowledge and skills are something that any person who hopes to be successful in the EOTWAWKI must have. I am not speaking just about vehicles, but vehicles are an excellent avenue to learn them. I can only talk with authority on my own past, but I know that the wealth of much of my knowledge comes from my extensive background in working on cars.
I won't claim that any of this post is going to be something that you have never read before. Heck, I am willing to bet that you heard much of this speech by a parent or grandfather the day you turned 16. I know I did. And, like almost everyone in this country, I rolled my eyes.
Before you roll your eyes, I propose that we conduct a quick experiment.
I want you to drive down your local heavily used state highway or interstate, say, the one you drive on every day to work. Within 5 miles, you will see a broken down car. Now, the reason for this breakdown can and will vary. It could be because of a catastrophic motor event or a wreck, but 90% of the time, it is there because the driver doesn't understand the basics of vehicle maintenance, the limits of the vehicle, or how to fix the vehicle in either event. Over the course of my next few topics, we will look at several of these and then explain the significance of the knowledge and it's potential uses.
Tire Maintenance
What's the most common automotive issue I see on American's roadways? Flat tires. Flat tires claim more roadside breakdowns than anything else. And not because the tire went flat, but because the owner either didn't have a spare, the spare was flat, or *most likely* can't change the tire. Of these cars you see on the side of the road, how many have a jack underneath them, or a wheel propping the car up, and were simply abandoned mid-task? How many of them are just left there because they didn't have AAA? I have seen many a fine car left alone on the interstate for hours or days at a time.
Changing a tire is perhaps the simplest task a motorist can learn. And while it IS simple, it teaches several lessons while also being a useful and money saving skill. These skills can save you valuable time and money in the every day world, while perhaps saving your life down the line. Changing a tire teaches many things including, but not limited to, the order of steps needed to complete an involved task, it teaches using a long handled tool to develop a moment to break loose lugs, balancing an unevenly weighed object, and even safety.
Now, for those of you who CAN change a flat tire, you realize that while it's an inconvenient, it isn't a big deal. For those of you who have practiced many times in your life, it is now a habit and can be easily fixed in a matter of minutes. Now, for those of you that can't....what does a flat tire cost you? Mere minutes? Or hours? Do you have to call someone to come help you? What about their time? Does it cost you money? How is your stress level when you miss something important?
Yet, many times the problem is deeper than that. I remember being 16-18 and my grandmother ALWAYS telling me that my tires looked flat and that I needed to put air in them. But I always ignored her until one day the rim cut the tire down and I had a blowout. I remember driving to Auburn one time and I had a nasty blow out because a randomly 100 degree day caused the tire pressure to increase beyond the capability of the tire. In either case, simply paying attention to the tires would have raised an alarm and I would have rectified the situation. Not to mention that it would have saved me several hundred dollars. But, I wasn't in the habit of paying attention to my vehicle, neither by checking it out whenever I thought about it OR paying attention to it's behavior on the road.
Here are many things that can tip you off to a tire issue, but all require the driver to be in tune to the vehicle:
Don't forget to check out ALL of my Last Man On Earth Studies posts!
Basic mechanical knowledge and skills are something that any person who hopes to be successful in the EOTWAWKI must have. I am not speaking just about vehicles, but vehicles are an excellent avenue to learn them. I can only talk with authority on my own past, but I know that the wealth of much of my knowledge comes from my extensive background in working on cars.
I won't claim that any of this post is going to be something that you have never read before. Heck, I am willing to bet that you heard much of this speech by a parent or grandfather the day you turned 16. I know I did. And, like almost everyone in this country, I rolled my eyes.
Before you roll your eyes, I propose that we conduct a quick experiment.
I want you to drive down your local heavily used state highway or interstate, say, the one you drive on every day to work. Within 5 miles, you will see a broken down car. Now, the reason for this breakdown can and will vary. It could be because of a catastrophic motor event or a wreck, but 90% of the time, it is there because the driver doesn't understand the basics of vehicle maintenance, the limits of the vehicle, or how to fix the vehicle in either event. Over the course of my next few topics, we will look at several of these and then explain the significance of the knowledge and it's potential uses.
Tire Maintenance
What's the most common automotive issue I see on American's roadways? Flat tires. Flat tires claim more roadside breakdowns than anything else. And not because the tire went flat, but because the owner either didn't have a spare, the spare was flat, or *most likely* can't change the tire. Of these cars you see on the side of the road, how many have a jack underneath them, or a wheel propping the car up, and were simply abandoned mid-task? How many of them are just left there because they didn't have AAA? I have seen many a fine car left alone on the interstate for hours or days at a time.
Changing a tire is perhaps the simplest task a motorist can learn. And while it IS simple, it teaches several lessons while also being a useful and money saving skill. These skills can save you valuable time and money in the every day world, while perhaps saving your life down the line. Changing a tire teaches many things including, but not limited to, the order of steps needed to complete an involved task, it teaches using a long handled tool to develop a moment to break loose lugs, balancing an unevenly weighed object, and even safety.
Now, for those of you who CAN change a flat tire, you realize that while it's an inconvenient, it isn't a big deal. For those of you who have practiced many times in your life, it is now a habit and can be easily fixed in a matter of minutes. Now, for those of you that can't....what does a flat tire cost you? Mere minutes? Or hours? Do you have to call someone to come help you? What about their time? Does it cost you money? How is your stress level when you miss something important?
Yet, many times the problem is deeper than that. I remember being 16-18 and my grandmother ALWAYS telling me that my tires looked flat and that I needed to put air in them. But I always ignored her until one day the rim cut the tire down and I had a blowout. I remember driving to Auburn one time and I had a nasty blow out because a randomly 100 degree day caused the tire pressure to increase beyond the capability of the tire. In either case, simply paying attention to the tires would have raised an alarm and I would have rectified the situation. Not to mention that it would have saved me several hundred dollars. But, I wasn't in the habit of paying attention to my vehicle, neither by checking it out whenever I thought about it OR paying attention to it's behavior on the road.
Here are many things that can tip you off to a tire issue, but all require the driver to be in tune to the vehicle:
- Uneven wear on the treads. If it's worn on the outside, the tire pressure has been too low. If it's worn in the center, the tire pressure is to high.
- Does the car pull to one side or the other while driving? This could be a misalignment or one under inflated tire, which will also cause uneven wear.
- Is there a "wobble"? If so, you could have tread separation and a blowout could be imminent.
Furthermore, great care should be taken while driving to limit the hazards to tires.
- Always avoid potholes. It may not seems deep or wide, and maybe you have run over thousands of them in your life. But it only takes the right one at the right angle and speed to cut down a tire. That's a a real bad thing to have happen at 70.
- Never run over objects on the road. IT may look like a piece of paper, but it could be a shard of metal or class ready to cut your tire. It may be a piece of plywood. Then again, it could be covered with nails.
Now, how about understanding the limitations of your tires? For example, do you know what the capabilities of a type of tire might be? Do you know if the tires on your current vehicle can be used to go off-road, if the need arises? Conversely, do you know just how long to expect a set of off-road tires to last on the street? In the case of a damaged tire, for example, a cut tire...do you know how to accurately gauge the remaining usefulness of that tire? Or know how to extend it's life by lowering tire pressure and travel speed? In the event of a flat tire, do you know just how fast you can continue to drive on it if need be? Or how to know if you have traveled as far as the physical limits of the flat tire will allow? Do you know what the danger signs of a tire are and can you gauge the severity? For example, what it means when you see the steel belts sticking out of a tire? Do you know what the effective stopping distance in your car is in all weather conditions? Specifically, do you know the conditions of your tires and how they might perform i the rain? In all cases, it requires the drive to be in tune with their vehicle, which in this age of automation and luxury, makes it easy for people to ignore all these important signs.
So, many of you are asking just how this might save your life in the EOTWAWKI. Let's talk about one of our older posts from the 5 Stages of Preparedness. Specifically, Stage 1: The Immediate. Let's say you have identified a major threat to all cities, specifically the one you live in. While it is important to always take care of your vehicle for your everyday life, it could become vital to your survival. Specifically, if you have to get out of Dodge. You will have so many other things on your mind that you don't need to be worried about if your vehicle will get you where you need to go. Getting into habits such as checking tire conditions and pressure will go a long way to ensuring that at least the tires of your vehicle will hold up. And, while you are on the go, you have to take care that you limit putting it in circumstances that it might fail you. Paying attention to driving conditions, specifically on the road, may save you minutes, hours, or even a dangerous circumstance that may claim others. For example, if EVERYONE is trying to escape a city, the roadways will undoubtedly be extremely busy. There will be wrecks. There will be objects on the road. Slowing down, paying attention, and limiting the potential for cutting down you tires may save you when it may doom others. What if it' raining? Getting out IS the priority, but knowing the effective stopping distance of your tires due to their physical condition could save you from a costly wreck.
But things happen. Sometimes there are forces you can't control. What will you do then? Could you change a tire if you had to? More importantly, can you do it quickly and safely? Will it be such a habit that you can pay attention to your surroundings? What if you didn't already have a vehicle and you needed one. You find one on the side of the road, abandoned. Keys still in it. But the owner couldn't figure out how to use a jack. With 5 minutes work, you have secured potentially life saving transportation. We talked about understanding the limitations of the tire. Let's say that you know there is a potential problem developing that you have identified. You also know that stopping is not a possibility. Understanding the limitations of the tires may allow you to continue your path. While it may not be the optimum speed or method, it may be enough to put those crucial miles behind you.
What does it take to learn this skill? Just time. Luckily for you, your car manufacturer gave you all the tools you would need. I am willing to bet that there are instructions on the back of the cover panel to the secret compartment that houses the jack and the breaker bar in the trunk of your car. So, take some time on a Saturday afternoon to find out where that compartment is. Pull the cover off, grab the tools, and follow the directions. I promise that even the slowest of you will only need to change the tire 3 times before you will have it down. Even if you don't believe in the EOTWAWKI, you have to believe in saving time and money. How about keeping you from walking down an interstate late one night to find a gas station? I can't think of anything more scary for a woman than the thought of having to start walking down the street to find help.
Indirectly, there is a lot of things a person can gain from learning the basics of tire maintenance. How about the money and time that you can save from simply being in tune with your vehicle by getting in the habit of paying attention to the little things. No one likes buying tires. That's a fact. Identifying potential problems like noticing the vehicle pulling to one side can save money by having it fixed early. Maintaining the proper air pressure can maximize tire life, saving you money.Simply knowing how to change a tire can save you hours and stress. What about the things you can learn indirectly? Off the top of my head, I think about the cause and effect of air temperature and pressure. How about understanding mechanical properties and friction? If the tire is flat, the surface area increases, so the drag increases causing the car to pull to one side. How about using a breaker bar to overcome your own physical limitations of force? I know it all sounds simplistic to many of you. But I am not writing for those of you that understand. The average American knows virtually nothing about hands-on mechanical work of any kind. They have to learn it by living it. I can't think of a better way to learn than to do so while discovering a valuable skill that has definite uses in your daily life and potential use to save it.
Don't forget to read some of my other popular EOTWAWKI work!
The Auburn Realist: The LSU Preview
Don't forget to follow me on FaceBook!
I don't think 3-0 has ever felt so precarious. Or is it just me? I haven't bought in or cashed out yet, which really bothers me. My wife has bought in to this team and she is riding me because I haven't. This team is like a fledgling eagle. It has great potential, it can become the top tier Bird of Prey, but it has to manage not to fall out of the nest.
So, last week wasn't too great for me as far as calling scores and predictions. But, it was an odd game that featured a backup QB starting. Oh well, upon further review, I was on the right track. Check out my Mississippi State Review with pics!
None of it matters since it's time to travel to LSU. I can promise Ole Les doesn't care what your record is when you walk into Death Valley...the place where dreams.....ok, you know the saying.
I gotta say, I love that this game is getting some love from ESPN. It's probably the first time that a team coming off of 3-8 and being unranked has ever gotten its own commercial on the air.
One thing I can promise is: You will hear about the Fire Game. The Earthquake Game. And, my personal favorite....the 1994 INT game. But, the LSU/Auburn rivalry is deeper and more bitter than that. How about the 10-9 win in Auburn? I was there. That was amazing. Or Cecil the Diesel coming out of obscurity and running to something like 245 yards on the ground against Auburn....in a loss! The kid breaks his leg and we never heard from him again. ***Update** I was enlightened that he actually did make it to the NFL and then prison shortly after. WOW!
There have only been a few lopsided victories, and despite the lack of...well...anything last year, Auburn made it close.
But, I gotta tell ya. Initially, I didn't like this game in any form or fashion. I'll just come out and say it. I didn't think Auburn has much of a chance. Cue all the AUFamily calling me a "'Bammer" or a "Mullet" or whatever for being real. (update) But then I wrote the rest of this Preview......
Even if I put aside last year (and every other year), these teams don't even compare. Do they?
LSU continues to churn out amazing running backs who all have to share carries. There hasn't been a full time starter in a while. It seems to work for Les, who must have a heck of a Voodoo fortune teller in New Orleans who tells him what back starts when. This team has something that LSU hasn't had in years...even in the Championship years. A game WINNING QB. Yes...not a game manager and not a here today and gone tomorrow bust. Mettenberger looks like a winner. LSU is finally putting that receiver core to use after producing multiple NFL receivers who couldn't get a ball thrown to them in college. At least that's what ESPN is telling us...The defense? Well, it's LSU and Chavis is a winner. Again, so we are told.
But, hold up...who have they played? The only marketable game has been the TCU game to open up the season. Everyone seemed to be impressed with the victory. But, apparently, not too many watched that TCU team play Texas Tech the next week. They were sloppy. Penalty prone. And simply made stupid decisions time and time again. They let a Tech team playing a walk-on QB (BTW...he is the backup to ANOTHER walk-on who got hurt) beat them in a 2 minute drill! Ironically, if Tucker Tuberville were still at Texas Tech, he would be a starting QB instead of a scout teamer at Auburn.
The sportscasters made many remarks about players the coaches "couldn't get on the same page with" and "when he gets rid of that attitude"....blah blah. So, I am forced to throw out LSU's only legitimate win. So, they beat an over-hyped TCU and two high school teams. Now what?
On the flipside, Auburn has beaten what seems to be a very good WSU team, an ASU team that may very well 3-peat a conference title, and Mississippi State. I don't have any superlatives for MSU. Why? Because I am not impressed with them. I am not impressed with Mullen. While they gave Auburn everything the Tigers wanted...they always do, it wasn't enough. More importantly, it's what happens after the SEC opener that matters, and 2010 aside, MSU hasn't done much. In fact, I see them declining further. Get used to being #7 in the SEC-W.
Auburn clawed out a 2-minute drill that no one will forget...until this weekend. Was I impressed with Marshall? Yes. It was amazing to see it live. He showed what MIGHT be possible. But, the key to this game is: the "go to" receivers can't catch a cold most of the time and the RBs can't do much against 9 man fronts. The defense has improved mightily after last years class, specifically in the secondary. But, the LB play from Holland was a real set back last week. Luckily Frost came in at the half and stopped the bleeding that Prescott was wreaking on the D. The D-line has not impressed me. Again, a reoccurring theme for a position that Auburn *supposedly* puts a premium on.
Way back when, before the season started I previewed the first half of the season. I called a win for Auburn based on containing the stable of LSU RBs and forcing Mettenberger to beat them with his arm. The problem was, I didn't see him coming on so strong....even against inferior talent. I'm not so sure I can stick with my call of 35-21 in favor of AU. After watching him last year, I just shrugged and figured he was the perfect continuation to the Periloux, Jefferson, etc al line of QBs at LSU.
What can we expect from AU?
Offense
There have been several articles from the beat reporters about taking the chains off the offense. But, honestly, I don't expect anything crazy. Sure, the pace has been slow at times and we haven't seen Marshall really break loose. So, I have to make the assumption that they will let Marshall run around a bit and they MIGHT finally get the pace up. One really depends on the other, however. Pace doesn't matter if you can't move the chains and it's tough to move the chains when you play behind them. More on that later.
We have seen about 2 deep balls a game, which is what I would expect. The problem is, you MUST connect on at least 1 of them. While Bray took one to the house last week, it was a broken play. I can't count it. What I can count were the all too painful drops. While the coaches and players have beat it to death, you can't fix it in a week. Without the deep ball, it's hard to win games with this offense. You have to stretch the field. Otherwise, you have to win with the run against the 8 and 9 man fronts. And LSU is NOT the team you want to go to war in the trenches against. Right?
Perhaps. Perhaps not. Even in the loss, TCU had two players that had high per rush averages and a pair of TDs. The issue was the inability to make passes down field against the LSU defense. Turns out, that may suit Gus just fine. Zone stretch here. Jet sweep there. QB pull. Next thing you know, you have an offense that's rolling.
And that's my prediction. Everyone thinks that Auburn must throw the ball to beat LSU. While it sure would help, the run is what can win the day. LSU is softer than people think they are, based upon their reputation. I do think they have the speed from sideline to sideline to stuff the jet sweep and keep Grant in check. I do think they know what to expect when CAP gets in the game. But, like I said last week....this week is all about #21. Yep. Mason will have his day. It won't be easy. It won't be quick. But he will produce. 1 TD for Mason. He hits the 100 all-purpose yard mark.
CAP will be limited on the ground, being used in short yardage situations. But, it WOULD be sneaky for this to be the game the Gus starts using him in the passing game. We saw his production in the A-Day game through the air and haven't seen him targeted yet. Sure would be a great play to use on a critical 3rd down.......
I do think a deep ball connection could be a game breaker, though I don't think they win or loose because of it. Last year, Auburn was in it and they never could throw the ball. They had that drop in the middle of the field that could have won the game, if we recall. But, I do expect Coates to get open. He has gotten open against EVERYONE. The difference this time is simply statistics. He can't drop them all and it's time to take one to the house. Alas, I just have no faith in it, though. Like I said, drops can't be fixed in a week.
I believe the WR who helps keep Auburn in this game is Marcus Davis. He has a nose for the ball and Marshall seems to like him as a comfort blanket. I think he sees 4 receptions and 6 targets this week. He isn't the game buster, but he gets his catches. I see 4 catches for 28 yards, but they all move the chains and it will be vitally important, though understated.
Marshall....ugh....I still feel the skies the limit for this guy, but I am very wary of expecting big things from him. I still feel he is too raw to win big games. I don't like his touch on the ball or his throwing motion. I don't like how he has made some grievous errors throwing the ball. But, In Gus We Trust, right? One of my preseason fears with this game was that Gus would take the chains off and let Marshall go. The problem I saw was, if they got down early, he would force things and it would cost them the game. We have seen it in JUCO. He had something like 25 turn overs and the line was always the same "he tried to take the game on his back." While he is surrounded with superior talent than he had at JUCO, it's still a team that isn't quite on the level as most of the SEC-W competition, so the same logic applies. He doesn't even have to give up turnovers. If he takes a deep sacks because he is scrambling, Auburn will be in trouble. This team can't play behind the chains. We all recall that the LSU game in 2010 is essentially what put Cam on the map. I contend that it's what really won his the Heisman. He couldn't be stopped and won the game himself. I DO think this is the game where we see the true value in Marshall, but I think it's also the game where he learns exactly what he is up against and how to win in the SEC-W.....by losing. He still posts good numbers, especially on the ground, but it will be the individual negative plays that make the difference, not the 100 yards he gains on the ground.
Defense
I am starting to think that we have seen the emergence of a player at MLB in Frost. He still has some growing room, but he is young and experienced no development with the last staff, which can be said for most all of the team. His play has greatly improved, as could be seen last week. Though, that was against a State team who didn't throw the ball and force him into coverage, which has been his weakness. Garrett moves to LB to shore up the position and that's good for Therezie who suddenly finds himself as the true starter. Two things to worry about: Garret couldn't break the rotation last year or the year before as a "mis-typed LB", so I am not sure what this move means. What I HOPE it means is, he had "the light come on" and now he can play in the box. The other thing is, I worry about Therezie staying hungry. I can identify with his plight, so called. His first 3 weeks have been lights-out in order to prove he belongs. Will he maintain the same level of play? I hope so. I have never seen him take a play off.
Can the D-Line emerge this week? Lots of talk about them and Johnson's attempt to elevate the production out of them. I just don't see the play improving against the best offensive line they have seen thus far. If you can't stuff the run between the tackles and you can't pressure Mettenbuger to make mistakes (which he will make), then you don't have a chance. But, if you can do ONE of these, you can stay in this game. This Auburn defense has had its run stopping games and its pass stopping games, but never both. If I had my pick, I would expect the D-Line to stuff the run, which requires little penetration, and force Mettenburger to pass. That's still a precarious situation, but it can work. I do see one sack, but it will be a coverage sack.
Now, I may have devalued the defensive backs a little to this point. But, after the WSU where they doubled last years pick count, they haven't hauled another one in. Their play has been adequate in the other two games and at times we have seen fantastic individual plays. The thing I like in this game is that Mettenburger is overly confident in his ability to make passes fit. That has worked against inferior opponents. I don't think it works against Auburn's defensive backs. I am picturing a tide-turning pick on a deep post where the deep safety makes a good read and steps in front of a streaking receiver. It's time for a defensive TD and this very well may be the game we see it.
Important Stats
Penalties. Auburn gives up 2 critical holding penalties. LSU gives up at least 1 pass interference to keep an AU receiver from getting loose. We will see 1 fake injury from LSU to slow down the pace from Auburn. Most likely, in a 2-minute drill at the end of the 1st half.
Missed field goals. Parkey misses a FG in the 3rd quarter that would help pull Auburn within a score. LSU buries one in the 4th for insurance.
The Line
Back and forth I go. I think they can win, then I think they can't. Truth is, I know they can win. Deep in my bones, I TRULY feel that losing this game will be the best thing that happens to this team. A drop by a receiver will prove how costly dropping both the deep balls in a game can hurt. Marshall will show just how high the ceiling is, but will learn that it's more important to win with a team then to take the world on your back. A games worth of brilliance isn't worth a moments error. The young D-line will find out how they stack up against the best in the SEC and will elevate all aspects their game from practice to preparation. The world will know just how good this AU secondary really is, and most importantly, a unit that has been criticized for years will understand that they can compete and win. This team, while it has all the same players, is different from last year. How? After this games last year, they folded. They gave up. This team and this coaching staff will be hungry. They will learn from this and they will win the Iron Bowl. So, I have to swap my preseason expectations.
24-17 LSU
I don't think 3-0 has ever felt so precarious. Or is it just me? I haven't bought in or cashed out yet, which really bothers me. My wife has bought in to this team and she is riding me because I haven't. This team is like a fledgling eagle. It has great potential, it can become the top tier Bird of Prey, but it has to manage not to fall out of the nest.
So, last week wasn't too great for me as far as calling scores and predictions. But, it was an odd game that featured a backup QB starting. Oh well, upon further review, I was on the right track. Check out my Mississippi State Review with pics!
None of it matters since it's time to travel to LSU. I can promise Ole Les doesn't care what your record is when you walk into Death Valley...the place where dreams.....ok, you know the saying.
I gotta say, I love that this game is getting some love from ESPN. It's probably the first time that a team coming off of 3-8 and being unranked has ever gotten its own commercial on the air.
One thing I can promise is: You will hear about the Fire Game. The Earthquake Game. And, my personal favorite....the 1994 INT game. But, the LSU/Auburn rivalry is deeper and more bitter than that. How about the 10-9 win in Auburn? I was there. That was amazing. Or Cecil the Diesel coming out of obscurity and running to something like 245 yards on the ground against Auburn....in a loss! The kid breaks his leg and we never heard from him again. ***Update** I was enlightened that he actually did make it to the NFL and then prison shortly after. WOW!
There have only been a few lopsided victories, and despite the lack of...well...anything last year, Auburn made it close.
But, I gotta tell ya. Initially, I didn't like this game in any form or fashion. I'll just come out and say it. I didn't think Auburn has much of a chance. Cue all the AUFamily calling me a "'Bammer" or a "Mullet" or whatever for being real. (update) But then I wrote the rest of this Preview......
Even if I put aside last year (and every other year), these teams don't even compare. Do they?
LSU continues to churn out amazing running backs who all have to share carries. There hasn't been a full time starter in a while. It seems to work for Les, who must have a heck of a Voodoo fortune teller in New Orleans who tells him what back starts when. This team has something that LSU hasn't had in years...even in the Championship years. A game WINNING QB. Yes...not a game manager and not a here today and gone tomorrow bust. Mettenberger looks like a winner. LSU is finally putting that receiver core to use after producing multiple NFL receivers who couldn't get a ball thrown to them in college. At least that's what ESPN is telling us...The defense? Well, it's LSU and Chavis is a winner. Again, so we are told.
But, hold up...who have they played? The only marketable game has been the TCU game to open up the season. Everyone seemed to be impressed with the victory. But, apparently, not too many watched that TCU team play Texas Tech the next week. They were sloppy. Penalty prone. And simply made stupid decisions time and time again. They let a Tech team playing a walk-on QB (BTW...he is the backup to ANOTHER walk-on who got hurt) beat them in a 2 minute drill! Ironically, if Tucker Tuberville were still at Texas Tech, he would be a starting QB instead of a scout teamer at Auburn.
The sportscasters made many remarks about players the coaches "couldn't get on the same page with" and "when he gets rid of that attitude"....blah blah. So, I am forced to throw out LSU's only legitimate win. So, they beat an over-hyped TCU and two high school teams. Now what?
On the flipside, Auburn has beaten what seems to be a very good WSU team, an ASU team that may very well 3-peat a conference title, and Mississippi State. I don't have any superlatives for MSU. Why? Because I am not impressed with them. I am not impressed with Mullen. While they gave Auburn everything the Tigers wanted...they always do, it wasn't enough. More importantly, it's what happens after the SEC opener that matters, and 2010 aside, MSU hasn't done much. In fact, I see them declining further. Get used to being #7 in the SEC-W.
Auburn clawed out a 2-minute drill that no one will forget...until this weekend. Was I impressed with Marshall? Yes. It was amazing to see it live. He showed what MIGHT be possible. But, the key to this game is: the "go to" receivers can't catch a cold most of the time and the RBs can't do much against 9 man fronts. The defense has improved mightily after last years class, specifically in the secondary. But, the LB play from Holland was a real set back last week. Luckily Frost came in at the half and stopped the bleeding that Prescott was wreaking on the D. The D-line has not impressed me. Again, a reoccurring theme for a position that Auburn *supposedly* puts a premium on.
Way back when, before the season started I previewed the first half of the season. I called a win for Auburn based on containing the stable of LSU RBs and forcing Mettenberger to beat them with his arm. The problem was, I didn't see him coming on so strong....even against inferior talent. I'm not so sure I can stick with my call of 35-21 in favor of AU. After watching him last year, I just shrugged and figured he was the perfect continuation to the Periloux, Jefferson, etc al line of QBs at LSU.
What can we expect from AU?
Offense
There have been several articles from the beat reporters about taking the chains off the offense. But, honestly, I don't expect anything crazy. Sure, the pace has been slow at times and we haven't seen Marshall really break loose. So, I have to make the assumption that they will let Marshall run around a bit and they MIGHT finally get the pace up. One really depends on the other, however. Pace doesn't matter if you can't move the chains and it's tough to move the chains when you play behind them. More on that later.
We have seen about 2 deep balls a game, which is what I would expect. The problem is, you MUST connect on at least 1 of them. While Bray took one to the house last week, it was a broken play. I can't count it. What I can count were the all too painful drops. While the coaches and players have beat it to death, you can't fix it in a week. Without the deep ball, it's hard to win games with this offense. You have to stretch the field. Otherwise, you have to win with the run against the 8 and 9 man fronts. And LSU is NOT the team you want to go to war in the trenches against. Right?
Perhaps. Perhaps not. Even in the loss, TCU had two players that had high per rush averages and a pair of TDs. The issue was the inability to make passes down field against the LSU defense. Turns out, that may suit Gus just fine. Zone stretch here. Jet sweep there. QB pull. Next thing you know, you have an offense that's rolling.
And that's my prediction. Everyone thinks that Auburn must throw the ball to beat LSU. While it sure would help, the run is what can win the day. LSU is softer than people think they are, based upon their reputation. I do think they have the speed from sideline to sideline to stuff the jet sweep and keep Grant in check. I do think they know what to expect when CAP gets in the game. But, like I said last week....this week is all about #21. Yep. Mason will have his day. It won't be easy. It won't be quick. But he will produce. 1 TD for Mason. He hits the 100 all-purpose yard mark.
CAP will be limited on the ground, being used in short yardage situations. But, it WOULD be sneaky for this to be the game the Gus starts using him in the passing game. We saw his production in the A-Day game through the air and haven't seen him targeted yet. Sure would be a great play to use on a critical 3rd down.......
I do think a deep ball connection could be a game breaker, though I don't think they win or loose because of it. Last year, Auburn was in it and they never could throw the ball. They had that drop in the middle of the field that could have won the game, if we recall. But, I do expect Coates to get open. He has gotten open against EVERYONE. The difference this time is simply statistics. He can't drop them all and it's time to take one to the house. Alas, I just have no faith in it, though. Like I said, drops can't be fixed in a week.
I believe the WR who helps keep Auburn in this game is Marcus Davis. He has a nose for the ball and Marshall seems to like him as a comfort blanket. I think he sees 4 receptions and 6 targets this week. He isn't the game buster, but he gets his catches. I see 4 catches for 28 yards, but they all move the chains and it will be vitally important, though understated.
Marshall....ugh....I still feel the skies the limit for this guy, but I am very wary of expecting big things from him. I still feel he is too raw to win big games. I don't like his touch on the ball or his throwing motion. I don't like how he has made some grievous errors throwing the ball. But, In Gus We Trust, right? One of my preseason fears with this game was that Gus would take the chains off and let Marshall go. The problem I saw was, if they got down early, he would force things and it would cost them the game. We have seen it in JUCO. He had something like 25 turn overs and the line was always the same "he tried to take the game on his back." While he is surrounded with superior talent than he had at JUCO, it's still a team that isn't quite on the level as most of the SEC-W competition, so the same logic applies. He doesn't even have to give up turnovers. If he takes a deep sacks because he is scrambling, Auburn will be in trouble. This team can't play behind the chains. We all recall that the LSU game in 2010 is essentially what put Cam on the map. I contend that it's what really won his the Heisman. He couldn't be stopped and won the game himself. I DO think this is the game where we see the true value in Marshall, but I think it's also the game where he learns exactly what he is up against and how to win in the SEC-W.....by losing. He still posts good numbers, especially on the ground, but it will be the individual negative plays that make the difference, not the 100 yards he gains on the ground.
Defense
I am starting to think that we have seen the emergence of a player at MLB in Frost. He still has some growing room, but he is young and experienced no development with the last staff, which can be said for most all of the team. His play has greatly improved, as could be seen last week. Though, that was against a State team who didn't throw the ball and force him into coverage, which has been his weakness. Garrett moves to LB to shore up the position and that's good for Therezie who suddenly finds himself as the true starter. Two things to worry about: Garret couldn't break the rotation last year or the year before as a "mis-typed LB", so I am not sure what this move means. What I HOPE it means is, he had "the light come on" and now he can play in the box. The other thing is, I worry about Therezie staying hungry. I can identify with his plight, so called. His first 3 weeks have been lights-out in order to prove he belongs. Will he maintain the same level of play? I hope so. I have never seen him take a play off.
Can the D-Line emerge this week? Lots of talk about them and Johnson's attempt to elevate the production out of them. I just don't see the play improving against the best offensive line they have seen thus far. If you can't stuff the run between the tackles and you can't pressure Mettenbuger to make mistakes (which he will make), then you don't have a chance. But, if you can do ONE of these, you can stay in this game. This Auburn defense has had its run stopping games and its pass stopping games, but never both. If I had my pick, I would expect the D-Line to stuff the run, which requires little penetration, and force Mettenburger to pass. That's still a precarious situation, but it can work. I do see one sack, but it will be a coverage sack.
Now, I may have devalued the defensive backs a little to this point. But, after the WSU where they doubled last years pick count, they haven't hauled another one in. Their play has been adequate in the other two games and at times we have seen fantastic individual plays. The thing I like in this game is that Mettenburger is overly confident in his ability to make passes fit. That has worked against inferior opponents. I don't think it works against Auburn's defensive backs. I am picturing a tide-turning pick on a deep post where the deep safety makes a good read and steps in front of a streaking receiver. It's time for a defensive TD and this very well may be the game we see it.
Important Stats
Penalties. Auburn gives up 2 critical holding penalties. LSU gives up at least 1 pass interference to keep an AU receiver from getting loose. We will see 1 fake injury from LSU to slow down the pace from Auburn. Most likely, in a 2-minute drill at the end of the 1st half.
Missed field goals. Parkey misses a FG in the 3rd quarter that would help pull Auburn within a score. LSU buries one in the 4th for insurance.
The Line
Back and forth I go. I think they can win, then I think they can't. Truth is, I know they can win. Deep in my bones, I TRULY feel that losing this game will be the best thing that happens to this team. A drop by a receiver will prove how costly dropping both the deep balls in a game can hurt. Marshall will show just how high the ceiling is, but will learn that it's more important to win with a team then to take the world on your back. A games worth of brilliance isn't worth a moments error. The young D-line will find out how they stack up against the best in the SEC and will elevate all aspects their game from practice to preparation. The world will know just how good this AU secondary really is, and most importantly, a unit that has been criticized for years will understand that they can compete and win. This team, while it has all the same players, is different from last year. How? After this games last year, they folded. They gave up. This team and this coaching staff will be hungry. They will learn from this and they will win the Iron Bowl. So, I have to swap my preseason expectations.
24-17 LSU
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)