Monday, August 29, 2016

Fishing Report for Wheeler 8/25/16

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After our solid outing the previous saturday on Wheeler, I was super stoked to be able to put a solid pattern to work. Brad and I had learned a whole lot and I was ready to double down on the pattern on a Friday night.

You can read about our tournament in the following link

Alas, it seems that anytime you dangle a fishing trip like a carrot in order to get you through the week, it is destined to disappoint. Maybe that's just me. But, the only thing that kept me motivated was the thought that I was on fish and I could wack 'em Friday night out of First Creek. 

Josh and I would be fishing together. Not only was there a check on the line for that tournament, but also an opportunity to close the gap between ourselves and the gentleman who is in first. With only the Classic remaining, it was imperative that we cash a check. Chances were, our opponet would. Which is why he is currently a full tournament's winnings in front. 

Our game plan was to work grass lines for about 30 minutes while the sun was still up and hot. We figured we would throw frogs and flip from 6-7PM before heading to our real patterns.

That pattern would be throwing Pop-Rs in shallow cuts on the main river for smallmouth. 

But, about time we fired the big motor up to make the lengthy run to the main channel, a very nasty storm blew up. We waited it out in a slip in the marina. The storm cleared and darkness settled on us, completely eliminating the bite that we hoped to cash in upon. 

With those shallow cuts having so many logs, we didn't want to risk getting thrown in the water or worse by hitting them. We moved to main river points, instead. 

Initially, I began fishing the 10 foot contour line, but as I trolled us, I stumbled upon a mound of fish in 14 feet. They were holding onto a rock pile adjacent to a bait ball. It was very obvious that this was exactly what I was looking for. I made a comment to Josh and backed us off into 25 feet before tossing a C-rig with a PTL 6" Gator onto the ledge.

A fish snagged the bait and I hoisted aboard our first bite of the evening. Josh boated a second fish just seconds later on the rock pile. 

Yes. This is what we needed.

And then, nothing. 

We fished the ledge hard, but we could not get the fish to bite. I trolled us around, trying to relocate the rock pile, but the fish had moved off of it. 

We moved to the next point, this time side scanning and graphing instead of fishing. Nothing.

We managed to have one other bite that was from a bass around 12:45, this time on a PTL 5" Sick Stick, but it was soo short. 

Weigh in was as expected. There were two limits weighed in. The winning bag was 8 pounds. Third took just two fish, both bigger than the two we had. 

The most frustrating part is that our AOY opponet also zero'd in terms of a check. Meaning, we had the exact opportunity we needed to make up ground going into the Classic. 

Our inability cost Josh more than I, as he was statistically eliminated from winning AOY. In order for me to win, I have to win the Classic with Big Fish while my opponet must not cash a check of any kind. That seems highly unlikely, though it is possible, as I did it just two years ago. But, my luck ain't that good.

That good news is, the Big Fish of the Year is only 4.8 and Big Smallie of the year is 3.1, both beatable. Both of those are checks I could cash, regardless. 

I wish I could say what we did wrong, but I think the weather was the primary factor and it didn't matter WHAT you did. That's my story. 

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Week One of 2016 SEC Picks

The Auburn Realist: Overview
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We are less than two weeks from the start of college football! And, by that, I mean the Tennessee vs App State and South Carolina vs Vandy games on Thursday night. That also means it is time for me to inundate you all with my fantasy advice and less-than-professional handicapping advice. No worries, though, since you are getting it all ffoooooo fffreeeeee.

But, in case you wondering if there is a relationship between the cost of my picks and their monetary Turns out, I went 22-17 last year in the SEC against the spread. And that isn't cherry picking games, yall. That was four or five premier games a week. A 56.4% rate is what Vegas considers "printing your own money." So, take that all you touters who sell your picks.

Typically I pick only the top four picks, but since this weekend is massive, I will pick all the games of note. 

Thursday September 1st

South Carolina at Vandy
South Carolina opened as a four point favorite in Nashville but the consensus line is now Vandy -3.5 with an over-under of 42.5. To get there, the 'Dores are projected to win 25-18. Vandy scored 25 or more points just twice last year, once in a win and one in a blowout loss to UT. The line scares me, though I would take the under on the points.  As far as the spread, new coach Muschamp hasn't fielded a competent offense yet and Vandy was quietly one of the very best defenses in the country. The Commodores will be better on offense and will hand the ball of to Ralph Webb early and often. The Gamecocks were 109th against the run in 2015. Take Vandy to cover

Appalachian State at Tennessee
The great orange hype trains starts against App State, the giant killer. It's been a long time since the opening day victory against Michigan. App State isn't an out of division team anymore. Now they play with the big boys. UT is a 23.5 point favorite with an over-under at 57.5 points. Before you go throwing down money, consider a few things first. App State was 10-2 last year with their two losses coming to Arkansas State (a Sun Belt foe) and the Clemson Tigers. And, before you think they are some gimmicky offense with no offense, you better educated yourself. App State ranked 48th in all of FBS in total offense while sitting at 30th in total offense. They held Clemson to three points in the first quarter, seven in the third, and three in the fourth. A 28 point second quarter killed them, but consider that App State tossed three picks in the quarter, one for a pick-six. 

Meanwhile, UT was 110th in total defense and 50th in total offense. Sure, UT's schedule is a far sight harder, but it bears knowing. In addition, the bulk of the Mountaineers production in QB Taylor Lamb and RB Marcus Cox are back. I am taking the over on points and Appalachian State to beat the cover

Saturday September 3rd

Clemson at Auburn
The line has held steady at Clemson -8 and an over-under of 59 points before dropping a point to -7. Dating back to 2008, Clemson is 2-2 against SEC teams in openers, having beaten Auburn and UGA, but having lost the return game to UGA while being dismantled by Alabama in 2008 in Swinney's first game as a head coach. Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn has never lost an opening game at Auburn, though he hasn't fared well elsewhere with teams the like of Clemson (Arkansas vs USC, Arkansas State vs Oregon). Though Clemson has one of, if not the best, offense in college football, it also has a completely retooled defense that returns only three starters. Meanwhile, Auburn's offense and defense were dreadful last year. However, the chances of Gus Malzahn reaching new lows after his worst college offense ever are slim to none, even if he doesn't have a true returning skill position player of note. 

The thing is, Auburn has seen the length and breadth of the Clemson defense against Alabama which makes Clemson totally exploitable. No such film exists on Auburn, who will field a completely different offense in 2016. In addition, the Auburn defense looks poised to have an incredible year while the Clemson D will take a step back from a defense that was really just "meh", checking in at 44th overall. This game is a terrific game to throw caution into the win and rack up some big bucks, but as a responsible better, I have to take Clemson and the points, though I would take the under in a surprisingly low scoring game. 

Georgia vs North Carolina
UGA is a very slim 2.5 point favorite in a very good matchup. The over-under sits at 54.5 points. What's the status on Nick Chubb and Sony Michel? Will true freshman Jacob Eason start? No one really knows. UGA's defense ranked 9th nationally in 2015, but a lot has changed, including the defensive coordinator. That can't be said for the other team. North Carolina's defense The defense gave up a ton of yards (100th), but ranked 35th in points allowed, which is saying something in the ACC. 

Questions remain for USC on if Mitch Trubisky can replace Marquise Williams. Williams was both electrifying and mystifying. He was as likely to run for a 50 yard TD, throw a 70 yard bomb, or gift the opposing defense a TD. However, Elijah Hood is back after a nearly 1,500 yard season where he averaged 6.7 yards per carry. Much of that was due to William's ability to pull the ball, which Trubisky won't do. What he will do is pick defenses apart. In his limited duty, he was nearly flawless, albeit in mop-up duty. Still, UNC is primed for a big-time upset. I am taking UNC and the over on points

LSU at Wisconsin
A few years ago, this would have been the premier game of the day. LSU is still LSU, but the Badgers are a far cry from where they were. LSU is a 9.5 point favorite and the over-under sits at 44.5. Wisconsin's lone chance at staying in this game would be a Dave Aranda defense, but he will be on the other side of the field. The only question will be, will Leo Fournette stay in the game after half? Just kidding. Even if he is pulled, his back up, Guise, is just as capable. I am taking LSU, the points, and the under on the points

Florida State vs Ole Miss (neutral field)
It's amazing that the line slipped just one point with Deondre Francios, the freshman, being named QB. Still, Free Shoes U is favored by 4.5 and the over-under is 57.5 points. Ole Miss has to rebuild their defense after losing Nkemdiche. But, you know, he wasn't exactly an every down or even an every game player. Chad Kelly is, perhaps, the best QB in the country. While he did lose a lot of talent in reliable Treadwell, he does get Washington State transfer Stringfellow and tight end Evan Engram back to go along with two of the other leading WRs. The issue will be up front. Can Ole Miss retool that line and let Kelly throw? 

This game is already picked tight, but I just can't see going against Ole Miss. I will take Ole Miss in the upset and the under on the points

UCLA vs Texas A&M
I caution against betting on TAMU, regardless of what the lines are. You simply don't know which team is going to show up. Right now, TAMU is a 2.5 point favorite with an over-under of 56.5. UCLA lost their lead back Paul Perkins to the NFL and that is a bigger loss than people think, especially for how it helped freshman phenom Josh Rosen last season. I don't think he is that good and I do think TAMU's defensive backfield is. After all, they were one of the leaders in college football in pass yards allowed. The Aggie defense will get better under John Chavis. The question is, will the Aggie defense return to form? One thing we know is, Sumlin's team is pretty dang good in openers, having covered in their two marque matchups. I am taking TAMU and the over on the points

Alabama vs USC (Neutral Site)
Now the game you all want to hear about. Alabama is currently a 10.5 point favorite and the over-under is 54 points. Now, this seems like a severe trap game. Alabama is now flirting with starting a dual threat freshman QB and will have a new defensive coordinator for the first time in forever. 

It's hard to go against Saban and the Tide in openers considering how they have been dominate in these openers. USC is just another in a long line of big names without the ability to back it up. To me, the lynchpin to your bet will be if Hurts is named QB. If he is, I would caution against playing Bama. USC does have a lot of talent and could really make Bama pay for sloppy play, which they have showed in these openers. Conversely, a safe start at QB means Bama will cover. At this point, we have to assume one of the older QBs will start, so I will take Bama and the points and the under

Monday, August 22, 2016

Fishing Report for Wheeler 8/19/16

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Many people have asked "are you not fishing?"  It's true that I haven't posted any fishing reports in, well, a month. But, it's for a good reason. No, it isn't because I haven't been fishing. I kinda wish I had that excuse. Truth is, I have been fishing just as much as normal, but I haven't been catching anything. 

Now, it's also true that I have been on Wheeler, which, as the FLW stated, is the stingiest lake on the Tennessee River. But, I also had two tough trips on Wilson that I did report. 

Starting with that trip, there has been a very, very dry period. I fished some Ditto wildcats and was essentially blanked for a few weeks (truth be told, I DID catch fish, but didn't weight in a measuring limit the entire time). Then, I decided to prefish for a few wildcats. That didn't help, either. Not only did I get blanked while prefishing, I got blanked during the tournaments. Over the last month, I have averaged catching around three fish a trip and that includes short fish. 

So, you can imagine just how much I looked forward to this passed weekend's tournament out of Ingall's on Wheeler. Our Calcutta pot (for a fish over six pounds) stands at over $1,000 and I have to back pay for any tournament I skip, so Brad and I figured we were in it to win it, even if we didn't think there was any chance there would be a six pound fish caught. 

Prefishing started the Friday, a week and a day before the tournament. Josh and our friend Anthony fished the Decatur area for several hours, but didn't have a sniff. That next day, Brad and a friend were able to get several hours in fishing out of First Creek. In the four hour trip, they caught 15 fish including a 4.5 and 3.5 smallmouth. The three best fish would have gone around 9 pounds, which we figured would be perfect. 

The following Tuesday, I fished for two hours after work, concentrating on shallow grass lines in the Decatur area. Though I did manage to catch a couple of fish, none of them were over two pounds. All of the fish I caught were on a Spro frog. But, between my and Josh's trips. I was fairly certain that Decatur would not provide the winning fish, even if 90% of the club stayed in the Decatur area. 

The day before the tournament, Brad and I put in at First Creek. We decided to completely ignore the one spot he had found success, which was a main river point where the fish had been actively schooling. We decided to test the same pattern (if you can call chasing schoolers with top water a pattern). 

Not only were there never more than one active fish busting shad on the surface, but that active fish could not have been less interested in our collection of top water baits. We caught exactly one fish.

Not very encouraging, to say the least. Yet, we had a decision to make. Where did we feel like we had the best chance to catch a winning sack? Wheeler has been tough on absolutely everyone. There just haven't been any fish caught. My feeling was that most of the club would stay within 2 miles of Ingall's simply because they didn't want to spend the gas money.  Instead, they would almost certainly junk fish and hope for the best. 

Not that I was against fishing Decatur, because Josh and I have had a ton of success flipping grass line in Decatur. But, it would only take one other boat to fish the same area and the spot would be dead. Add in the fact that both Josh and I had tested the same area within the week and the prospects weren't very good.

What has been good to Brad and I have been smallies around 1st Creek. You can read about some of those trips by clicking the link below.

Fishing Report for Wheeler 4/23/16

Fishing Report for Wheeler Lake 4/25/15

His last trip seemed to confirm that good smallies were living there year round. We were willing to make that trip and gamble. Turns out, only two other boats were willing to do the same thing. 

It took exactly 20 minutes to make the run to 1st Creek while doing 60 MPH. 

As we pulled up on the point, we could see active fish, but they were extremely scattered and they would not stay on the surface for more than about three seconds. We tossed a variety of baits at them including Sammys, Pop-Rs and even soft jerk baits. The fish would not touch the Sammy but would occasionally hit the Pop-R. However, they would not get hooked. It wasn't "slapping" as you might typically see. It was a hard hit, but the fish would not eat it. I assume they were headbutting the bait in order to stun it. Time after time, they would hit my Pop-R but wouldn't get hooked.

In the meantime, I would throw a PTL JP Hammershad, which is a soft jerkbait. I was throwing it on a spinning reel with 10 pound braid. I was getting hits, but for some reason, the knot kept breaking. It turns out, the wacky rig hooks I was using feature an eye that isn't completely closed. The line was fraying due to the constant back and forth motion of the jerk. 

After struggling with the top water, we picked up jigs. On both of our first cast, we caught a keeper fish. However, the fish would not touch the jig, nor worm, nor C-rig for the next four hours. We changed depths and boat positions. Nothing seemed to work. 

Though we had dedicated ourselves to fishing this one spot for the whole day, if needed, we rapidly got to the point where it was obvious the winning sack wasn't coming from there.

We began fishing some other patterns that had worked in the spring. This included shallow cuts on the main river. 

The first small cut we fished resulted in an explosion. A big fish destroyed my Pop-R. After a good fight, we netted our big fish of the day, a 3.42 largemouth. But, we were a long way from five fish still and only had two hours to figure it out.

The next set of shallow cuts resulted in nothing more than a few bream which were caught on top water. Brad continued to throw a sammy while I threw the Pop-R.

We came to the first deeper cut which was about 50 yards deep and had log jams in the back. One back-to-back-to-back casts, I had hits on the Pop-R. However, the fish continued to short strike it. That was until a smallmouth killed the bait while leaping two feet in the air. This one came to the boat. Not a giant smallmouth, but a nice keeper. At this point, Brad ditched the sammy and went to a Pop-R. He boated the fifth keeper just seconds later. 

The moves paid off as each of the next three cuts held between three and four smallmouth. Suddenly, we had gone from absolutely no pattern to a rock-solid one. We needed shallow cuts between 50 and 75 yards deep in at least 8 feet of water with submerged timber and log jams. Most importantly, we needed shade.

 The issue was that all the fish were 14.75 inch smallmouth. While larger than the two largemouth we had caught first, they were illegal to keep. We kept plugging away. Along the way, I managed to hook every log of every log jam. Of course, it didn't help that the smallies wanted the bait right at the log jams. So, it was either cast right to it and maybe get bit, maybe get hooked or not get bites. I know it got on Brad's nerves cause it got on mine. If it could be hooked, I hooked it! 

Then the sun came out and the bite completely died. 

At 1:30, we made the 20 minute run to Decatur, just barely missing a massive storm that brewed behind us. The issue was that it arrived right at weigh in. 

We weighed in a five fish limit that included two nice smallmouth for 9.35, missing first place by .98 of a pound. Our friend Brian came in third thanks to the big fish of the day, a beautiful 4.34 smallie caught early on (and not on our end of the lake!). In all, we caught around 12 bass and around 5 bluegill, perch, and sunfish. 

It was terrific to get back into the winner's circle of this club, which features some very fine fishermen. Brad and I hadn't cashed a check since the second tournament of the season, where we destroyed the fish on Wilson back in March. 

While I am proud of Brad and I for figuring it out, I am most proud that our two boat team has cashed a check in all but one of the club tournaments. That being said, with the .98 differential between us and first, I can't help but think about all the fish I missed. Were any of them huge fish? No. But at least two were decent fish that might have put us over the hump. 

But, they say that's what separates competitors. Some are happy just to be there in the spotlight. Some get in the truck thinking about what they could have done better and what they will do next time. 

Or, maybe I am incapable of just being happy. Who knows. 

We have one more club tournament before the Classic. And, well, guess what. It's on the G. However, the Calcutta rolled again meaning that the big fish of the tournament, no matter how big it is, will pay out over a grand. So, guess I better get back on Guntersville. (UGH). 

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

College Fantasy Football's Best Teammate Double-Ups for 2016

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Assessing Value to Position for Your 2016 Fantasy College Football Draft

What's a teammate double up? Pretty simple. That's when you pair your quarterback with a reciever from the same team. Obviously, this is an attempt to maximize points and it doesn't work for all QBs, nor all of their WRs. 

Here is what it does do: It takes a mid-level QB who has a favorite WR (or even just a stand-alone WR) and the combination goes from decent to very good and a very good set of players to unbeatable. That is, owning both of these players gets you paid twice for the same plays. A TD pass from the QB to that WR profits you 12 points for the TD plus yardage for one single play. I've seen 70 yard TD passes (thinking back to my Geno Smith/Tavon Austin teammate double up) score me 23.5 points on a single play. 

Of course there is risk. If the offense has a bad day, you can get yourself into a hole very quickly. But, hey, that's fantasy football. 

What are we looking for? A couple of things. The first are pass-first systems. Take Baylor (before the current mess), for instance. If you have the Baylor QB, you can use virtually any starting WR and be assured that chances are high to get at least some solid yardage. A single TD between the two can elevate your score significantly. In this case, a second tier WR that doesn't even lead his own team becomes incredibly valuable despite not having any initial value. 

What about a QB with a favorite target? Take Shane Carden and Justin Hardy. Both of these guys were worth owning on their own. Carden threw for 4,700 yards and 30 TDs. Of those, 1,500 and 10 TDs went to Hardy. The two were an unstoppable combo. 

In the case of TEs, there are only a few that are worth owning, much less drafting. But, pairing one of these TEs with a good or great QB gives you a massive score differential on your opponet. 

Let's take a look at some of this year's potential Teammate Double-Ups

Zach Terrell/Corey Davis (Western Michigan)- These two will rival any set of duos out there. In 2015, they weren't even the best set on the field. Daniel Braverman took his talents to the NFL and left Davis ready to take over the lead role. There are two sophomores on the offensive line but three upperclassmen. Outside of a week one matchup against Northwestern, the Broncos should sail through. But, keep an eye on the shift from a passing first attack to a strong game. The Broncos have some gifted backs and a lot of depth. 

Skylar Howard/Shelton Gibson (WVU)- I love Dana Holgerson a lot, especially early in the season. West Virginia is one of my favorite plays in the double-up game. These two hooked up for 9 TDs last year. Howard would have been an elite QB if not for the 14 INTs. That was far and away the most in the top 30 QBs. Can he cut those out in his senior season? WVU had the Big 12s leading rusher last year who decided to transfer after the season. So, the pass-first mentality will most likely be back. Additionally, the interior offensive line are all upperclassmen. Owners need to beware that WVU does have a fairly formidable schedule. While they might not win many games, you can still expect a lot of points. 

Luke Falk/Gabe Marks-Despite being in the Air-raid offense that spreads the ball around, Marks came down with over 100 balls for 15 TDs and 1,300 yards. Falk went on to post ridiculous numbers. 4,500 yards and 38 TDs on 8 INTs? Wow. This one is an easy, easy pick. 

Dane Evans/Josh Atkinson- Evans has been the poor mans lottery pick the last few years. He is dangerously close to setting new records at Tulsa. He just hasn't had the elite TD production (25) that others above him see. But, it is hard to beat his pure volume. This guy could explode this year and be the best passer in fantasy. Though Atkinson wasn't the number one guy last year, he still had 1,000 yards and 5 TDs. That isn't great production. But, he had 76 catches, which makes him valuable. However, keep in mind that just because he is the leading man back doesn't mean he is an elite threat. Many times these guys thrive with another star WR across the field. Just be careful, here. 


Tommy Armstrong Jr/Jordan Westerkamp(Nebraska)- Armstrong has a ton of value because of his running ability. His 400 yards and 4 TDs helped lift him from a mid-30s QB to a top 15. There is no way this guy throws for another 16 INTs this year. Just no way. He has a big arm. Westerkamp is a deep threat. He is rated as one of the better NFL prospects this year and I think these two have a huge year. The INTs will go down and the TD grabs will go up. 

DeShaun Watson/Jordan Leggett (Clemson)- Watson isn't going to sleep on anyone, nor is Artavious Scott. However, Leggett is one of only five or so draftable TEs. It would behove a Watson owner to take Leggett early and make sure they are teamed together. TE production is sporadic at best, but teaming these two up creates a massive point differential between you and the rest of the league at the TE position. It's kind of like this: in the 9th round, why take a flyer on a RB or a WR when you can have this guy and get 16 TDs for the price of 8? 

Greg Ward Jr.\Chance Allen (Houston) - Don't expect as big a year from the Cougars. They lost Demarcus Ayers and Kenneth Farrow, their leading reciever and rusher (outside of Ward). Obviously Ward has a lot of value by himself, but Allen will have some. As the second leading reciever, he caught 56 balls for 750 yards and 6 TDs. Is that elite production? Of course not. But he will benefit from Ward Jrs ability outside of the pocket. That's particularly important as the Cougars will have a very young line. Ward's fantasy production may drop, but the combination of these two may make up for it. 

Are there others? Absolutely. I have two or three more in mind, but I keep those to myself. 

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Best College Fantasy Receivers for 2016

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Assessing Value to Position for Your 2016 Fantasy College Football Draft

There really isn't a position quite like the WR position in college fantasy. Unlike the NFL, may WRs possess extra rolls that may see them running or even throwing the football. Additionally, no other position in fantasy is quite as unstable, year to year, than the recievers. Who knows who will repeat last year's feats? Additionally, your scoring system could make these guys worthy of first round draft picks or completely undraftable. Read more about that on:

I covered it in both of the articles listed above, but when I rank players at the WR position, I go in the opposite direction of most. 

  1. Those with any chance at playing extended duty at QB are a first priority. 
  2. Then, any that see  heavy use in the ground game.
  3.  Next, I feature those with heavy reception volume. 
  4. My next priority is yardage volume
  5. Last are those with heavy touchdown totals. 
I do this because I don't place enough value on the position to be my gamebreaker. Instead, I expect consistency out of this position. Sure, if they have a 30 point game, that's great and it most likely ends in a blow out win for me. However, players that fit into the first two positions of priority are extremely rare and typically don't emerge until after the draft. These players are also my secret weapons, so sorry, but I won't be talking about them today. 

In case you missed it, there is a significant difference in value between WRs in standard vs PPR leagues and you can see the differential in the following graph. 

Let's assume that you are in a PPR league. We do that because most leagues are PPR and there isn't enough value otherwise to even really discuss players. 

Let's talk about some players.

Taywan Taylor (WKU)- Ranked first in both standard and PPR leagues, he had the benefit of playing for the most prolific QB in a while, Branden Doughty. They were easily the best Teammate Double Up on the game last season. Don't misunderstand, Taylor will still get a ton of opportunity. The Hilltoppers are picked to win the conference. But, they have a major question mark at QB. While the new QB may be good, he isn't going to be an NFL player like Doughty.  WKU have an incredibly experienced offensive line and very deep backfield. Don't be surprised if a WKU player is a top fantasy guy, but don't be surprised if it's a RB instead of Taylor. Worth drafting? Sure. But, take caution. 

Richie James (MTSU)- Staying in conference, the Blue Raiders surprised a lot of people when the incumbent starter at QB was replaced by Brent Stockstill, the freshman son of coach Rock Stockstill. Stockstill was amazing, and not just for freshman. James, a fellow freshman, made the most of that by being one of only a handful of WRs to eclipse 100+ receptions. I don't normally like sophomores after big years, but with new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin coming to town and a veteran offensive line, it seems unlikely that Stockstill and James won't have at least three-quarters of the season last year. That's still pretty dang good. I love his reception volume. 

Artavis Scott (Clemson)-No, he wasn't a top 10 or even top 20 scored. He checked in at 32nd. Yet, he posted 93 total catches for 900 yards. But, he didn't catch but six TDs, which really hurt him. Here's the thing: Deshaun Watson has to take care of himself this year with the NFL  considering him first over all. He has a VERY young offensive line with just two upperclassmen. Scott slides in as the best option on the outside. His TD count is going to go way up this year making him one of, if not the biggest, mover. 

Josh Atkinson (Tulsa)- Aside from a handful of other QBs, Tulsa has one of the most prolific guys coming back in Dane Evans. Atkinson is the best option for Evans and last year that produced 76 catches for 1,071 yards. But, again, the lack of TDs hampered his over-all value. One would be quick to select him for that kind of volume and upside as well as the value at a double up. Not so fast, though. Keevan Lucas is clearly the top target after a stellar 2014 season where he caught 100 balls for 1,200 yards in 2014 before he was out for the season after four games in 2015. Before that injury, Lucas was already on pace to destroy those 2014 numbers and be perhaps the best WR in the game. Atkinson will undoubtedly get some looks with his 6-2 size. But it is the shifty Lucas in the slot that will score the points. Don't burn a high pick on this guy, but stash him. 

Calvin Ridley (Alabama)- Though it pains me to say it, Ridley will be one of the better picks in this year's draft unless something goes wrong in a hurry. Yes, Alabama is breaking in another new QB. Yes, offensive line may be an issue. But Ridley is poised to have a 100 catch year after an 89 catch year last year. Keep in mind that Alabama is in rougher shape at RB than any time in the Saban era. Ridley is almost assured to be a 100 catch, 1,000 yards for 10 TDs this year.  He is as safe a pick as any. 

Zay Jones (ECU)- This is a hard pass for me. After being the number two option for Shane Carden's record setting 2014, Jones responded in 2015 with almost 100 catches. However, ECU could not score TDs and that killed Jones value, though he still ranked 12th in PPR. ECU is in worse shape than last year and play some decent defense. 

Quincy Adeboyejo (Ole Miss) - I wouldn't say to take him real early, but Adeboyejo has incredible upside after being one of the better daily fantasy picks. His 600 yards on 37 catches isn't anything to write home about, but the focus on Treadwell and Engram meant easy TDs catches, for which he racked up seven. He will be playing with one of the best QBs in the country and is one of two returning WR for Chad Kelly. 

Gabe Marks (Washington State), Thomas Sperbeck (Boise State)- These guys are easy picks that I didn't spend time talking about. It isn't worth the effort. Just look at their stats.