I know all of you were waiting on me to put on some lists on sleepers, best picks, etc. Turns out, CFF is pretty small and even this seemingly small blog gets a lot of readers and I didn't feel like divulging many secrets.
How selfish of me, right?
Yeah, yeah. But I have a lot of money on the line. I'm playing in six money leagues right now with many of them having steep buy-ins. So, forgive me for selfishness.
Anyways, the first round of drafts are in the books and I thought I would talk a little about them, especially just the Power Five.
The first note that I have for everyone is that most leagues are going to a two QB system. This isn't new. The NFL fantasy world is also going to this en-mass. I think the main reason is that, as we have discussed earlier, there are about five elite QBs and their production is so overwhelming that it is almost impossible to make up the difference with elite players at other positions. With a two QB league, you can make up the ground as their are about 100 QBs that score between 20-25 points per game.
Still, beating an elite QB is possible and, to be honest, isn't that difficult. Yes, I understand that your chances against Lamar Jackson, week to week, was a nearly impossible task. But we are talking about winning a league, not winning a week. If you drafted smart and didn't fall for the mediocre QB in first and second round because everyone else did it mentality, you did well. Honestly, I finished 2nd in our 20-team league and I didn't draft a QB until the 7th round, but I digress.
It's no surprise that Lamar Jackson holds serve as the consensus number one Average Draft Position player in all of CFF. Everything points to him being that player, but I couldn't help but be wary of him, not that I had top pick in any draft, anyway. Was he the best fantasy player last year? Yep. Up until when people needed him the most: the playoffs. Luckily, most owners didn't have to burn first round picks on him last year. They did this year. Can you afford to struggle in week 12? Couple that with the history that literally every player like him has: trying to become something he isn't for the NFL draft. And, he lost some very, very valuable pieces around him. With Jackson, you are one hit away from flushing a season and that is a risk I couldn't take, but I understand.
Right behind him may be the biggest reach in all of CFF: Nick Fitzgerald. He sports a 2.74 ADP that is essentially all speculation and it is 100% due to the player ahead of him. Lamar Jackson. Look, I see what Fitz did last season. But, he caught the vast majority of teams by surprise after State started the year with a loss to South Alabama. He has to go on the road to UGA and Auburn in back to back weeks and that's after hosting LSU. People were just afraid of having him slip through the cracks and took him early. I get it. But, you could have waited on a very, very similar QB much later in the draft.
You know, like Jalen Hurts. Hurts ADP is 20 points behind Fitzgerald. I can understand why Hurts is at 20, just not why Fitz is that much higher. I get that Fitz had a lot more rushing yards and rushing TDs, but that is something that cannot be counted on, year to year. In addition, Bama is as stable as ever, despite losing Lane Kiffin and Bama has better weapons surrounding Hurts. Will that give Fitz an advantage when it comes to rushing yards? Maybe. And that's the risk you take, but a whole round isn't worth the risk to me.
Shea Patterson is another interesting reach. Though he played in only a few games (and played well), he is sitting as a back end first round or early second round pick. Considering the situation in Oxford, I just can't understand the move, other than assuming the Rebels are going to be playing from behind a lot. But, they are going to be playing behind to a lot of very good teams who aren't going to let him get a bunch of garbage time scores. In fact, the Rebels are more likely to pull the young star before letting him get killed. He is their future. Patterson is sitting at a ADP of 23, just under Hurts. Who would you rather have?
Plenty of people are putting their faith in offensive systems. It's interesting that Luke Falk is a known commodity in an Air Raid system (ADP of 7.5) and Nic Shimonek at Texas Tech is not, but the two are separated by about a round and only six places in terms of the position. Shimonek was drafted as a top-tier QB across the land without having done a thing yet.
No QB fell more in the draft that Kansas State's Jesse Ertz. Despite being a top rushing threat (1,000 yards and 12 TDs last season despite modest passing yards), Ertz slipped and slipped again during drafts. It appears that people saw the red flag by his name and turned a blind eye. Surprise, it was a separated shoulder and the senior is going to be ready to go. This is a guy who is projected for an average of 26 PPG but was drafted alongside guys a full touchdown less. He has a ADP of 137 and is a great risk adverse QB, thanks to solid rushing numbers.
Nobody seems to be willing to bite on transfers Blake Barnett or Malik Zaire. I can't say I blame them on that. 100% of leagues are taking a chance on Auburn's own Jarrett Stidham, your's truly included. Stidham sports an ADP around 114, not bad for a guy who hasn't proven anything. The former air raid QB from Baylor is just as likely to be the perfect mix for Auburn's run heavy offense as he is to be a footnote. He's a great flyer. He is not a 4th round pick. But, hey, I have an excuse. I'm a homer.
Best value? There are some guys much higher that you might have gotten for a good deal, but Austin Allen was a guy that you could literally leave until the 10th round and stock up on skill positions. Allen has been super solid at Arkansas. He isn't a game buster, but in leagues where you can have six or so RBs playing at the same time, it is much better to stock up on those guys and wait for a guy like Allen. Is he going to light up the top of the SEC? Probably not. But he is a 250-2TD guy all day long. His ADP is in the 200s. Just think about that.
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Football. Show all posts
Thursday, August 10, 2017
Thursday, July 13, 2017
Forgotten Fantasy Gems: QB Transfers
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Follow my Fish of 2017
Out of sight, out of mind, right? So, we covered some of the most impact college fantasy football players returning from injury. You can read that post by clicking the link below.
Now, it's time to move on to the most impact fantasy transfers. Just like injuries, many of these are guys that have had to sit out a year after a promising start elsewhere, or possibly just didn't get a chance to capitalize at their previous destination.
Obviously, QBs dominate most lists, and for good reason. If your plan was to wait until late in the draft for a QB anyway, waiting until possibly free agency is even better (see Davis Webb from Texas Tech to Cal last season).
With that said, QB transfers have a list of their own simply because of the value of the position. I am well aware that there are a lot of these guys and it's easy to extrapolate limited success to big-time numbers. So, take your time and follow the logic.
Breakout Players
Will Grier (West Virginia)- Grier was doing really, really well at Florida before a PED suspension. He is my number one transfer because he has demonstrated superior ability at the SEC level. Now he is with West Virginia and Dana Holgorsen. In terms of systems I trust year in and year out, Holgorsen is up there. His offense has been incredible with elite talent like Geno Smith and very good with just average talent like Clint Trickett and Skyler Howard. Grier is at least between those two levels. The professionals have him slated as a mid-6th round pick but many people may not think about him.
Damian Williams (Texas State)- This highly touted recruit has been behind two very, very good players at Mississippi State before transferring to Texas State. In his appearances over the course of three years, Williams was over 60% completion ratio, but it is his rushing ability that is going to be of interest. He ran for almost 300 yards in his short career and averaged better than 5 yards per carry in 2016. Texas State wants a dual-thread guy and former QB Tyler Jones looked to be that guy. However, after running for 1,000 yards and 16 TDs in 2014 and 2015, he posted just 30 yards and 5 TDs while averaging 0.3 YPC. His passing yards declined for two straight years as well. Williams could be the guy that Jones should have been.
Kyle Allen (Houston)- This is one of my more speculative picks. Tom Herman and Greg Ward, Jr are gone and Major Applewhite steps in. Make no mistake, this will be a down year for Houston. Allen is not the pure athlete that Ward was and Applewhite is no Tom Herman. However, the AAC isn't the SEC and by a wide margin. We saw fellow former Texas A&M Kenny Hill have success at TCU and Allen is probably a better passer. He has a 33:14 TD/INT ratio which should greatly improve agaist the AAC defenses. Now, will his receivers be as talented? No. But, he should still pile up the numbers. Still, Allen's spring performance leaves something to be desired and the presence of Duke Catalon at RB may change the focus of the offense.
Thomas Sirk (ECU)- When healthy, Sirk was fantasy gold, especially early on in daily leagues. His ability to run the ball gave him an immediate 2:1 edge in fantasy points. He rushed for 1,000 yards and 16 TDs in his first two years. His passing wasn't too shabby either, posting 2,600-16-8 stat line in 2015. 5 of those INTs came in the last four games he played, but he passed for 190+ yards in 9 of his games. ECU has had tremendous success on offense in the past and second year coach Scott Montgomery furthered that mark last season with 467 yards per game. However, the team just couldn't get it in the endzone with two different QBs posting a 24:12 TD/INT ratio. RB James Summers led the Pirates and now he is with the Cardinals. This is the perfect mixture for Sirk, if only he can stay healthy.
De'Andre Johnson (FAU)- Another speculative pick, here. He never saw the field at FSU after punching a woman at a bar. At EMCC, he went for over 2600-26 in the air and 800-5 on the ground. It's not as much about Johnson's ability or what he did at Last Chance U nearly as much as it is for respect for Lane Kiffin and Kendall Briles. I just don't see how this could go wrong.
Risky Transfers
Any Alabama Transfer- Blake Barnett, David Cornwell
Max Browne (Pitt)- If OC Canada hadn't moved to LSU, Browne would be on this list
Anu Soloman (Baylor)- Couldn't do it at Arizona. Baylor isn't what it was
Shane Morris (Central Michigan)- Just too much risk here
Tanner Lee (Nebraska)- Sure, he was decent at Tulsa, but Tulsa was playing from behind a lot. Lee isn't what Tommy Armstrong was, and that isn't saying too terribly much.
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
Forgotten Fantasy Gems: Players Returning From Injury
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Follow my Fish of 2017
You say the same thing every year: "I wish I would have dug deeper."
What happens in every league, every year, is that after five rounds, people really start struggling, and for good reason. With the turnover in fantasy football, it's awfully hard to dig deeper than the first 100 or so players because the stats just aren't there from the previous year. Are they going to assume a larger role? Is this what should be expected of them? Or could their stats diminish?
As you are looking at last year's trends, it becomes almost impossible to decided who will take the next step and who won't. Far too often, players use late round picks on flyers, few of which ever pan out.
What if I told you that sometimes there are gems that have given you all the data you need, it just may not have shown up last year? Maybe they missed the entire year due to an off-season injury? In some cases, they may have been off to a hot start before a mid-season injury ended their production, stranding them in the noise? Let's take a look at some.
Marcell Ateman (Jr) WR Oklahoma State- There may not be a better offense in college football than Oklahoma State. QB Mason Rudolph is a Top 10 QB and will go in the first or second round. Fellow receiver James Washington is a later first or early second rounder and may have more value. Ateman missed all of last season after posting a 45-760-5 season in 2015. Defenses will key on Washington, making Ateman (6ft 4in) a very, very good WR2/3 pick that you may get as a free agent.
Chris Warren (So) RB Texas- Gone is Foreman and his 2,000 yard, 15 TD campaign from 2016. In comes Warren who, before injury, had 366 yards and 3 TDs while averaging 6 yards per carry in the first four games before missing the entire rest of the 2016 season. He still ended the year as Texas' second leading rusher. Warren is 6-2, 250 pounds. The Longhorns need to protect Shane Buechele, who has run a lot in his career already. Swoopes and Beuchele combined for 9 rushing TDs. Expect Warren to get that work, especially in the red zone.
D.K. Metcalf (RFr) WR Ole Miss-The 6-4 monster that was D.K. Metcalf didn't get a lot of work in the two games he was well enough in which to play, but he made the most of them. He caught just two passes in two games, but both were in the redzone and both were TDs. Gone, now, is the Rebel's other redzone man, Evan Engram as well as several talented other WRs (Stringfellow/Adeboyejo). Truly, only A.J Brown and Van Jetfferson are threats to soak up targets. You won't have to burn anything on this guy, but he may have the most upside of any one not drafted.
KaVontae Turpin (So) WR TCU- Turpin could not stay on the field in 2016 and never played more than three consecutive games. In the meantime, he posted a 30-295-1 line that wouldn't warrant a second look. However, when he was healthy in 2015, he posted a 75-944-9 line while adding another 116 yards on the ground. TCU would seem to spread the ball around with six WRs with 20 more more catches, but Turpin was a focal point when healthy having six or more catches in half of his games while also adding at least one rush in five games. The 5-9 speedster takes mostly short passes, so keep that in mind.
A.J Oullette (Jr) RB Ohio- This isn't the first time this exact conversation has been had. As a freshman, Oullette went 785-7 on the ground and added 21-133-3 receiving. He has spent the last two years injured though his 2015 686-6 line wasn't terrible, he wasn't right for the middle of the season. Ohio may not be a great program, they do play a soft schedule. Purdue is the largest hurdle they face, so just think about that. Oullette is a great late round stash that could be a solid RB2 and certainly a FLEX in PPR leagues. He ended the year with eight straight games with a reception.
Make sure to check back for more Fantasy College Football articles! Here is last week's.
Make sure to check back for more Fantasy College Football articles! Here is last week's.
A Look at Last Year's CFF Scores in Predicting Value for This Year
Thursday, July 6, 2017
A Look at Last Year's CFF Scores in Predicting Value for This Year
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Check out my Fish of 2014
Follow my Fish of 2015
While it isn't quite time to start breaking down some individual position rankings, I think it is the right time to discuss some trends from last season and how it should affect your preparation going forward. First things first: last year wasn't a banner year in terms of fantasy football for me. Now, I did make the playoffs of every league I played in, but I only cashed a check in one of those leagues. To be fair, of course, I was in only three money leagues and was second in the biggest of those leagues.
Anyway, that's enough about me.
Two weeks ago, we began our preparation talking about teammate double ups. You can check out some of the very best double ups and some great sleepers for this year by reading the post below.
Today I want to discuss a few things and I really hope to get your feedback.
Because I don't believe in downloading people's rankings (or buying them), I began to build spreadsheets (just like last year) based upon the statistics of returning players. From there, I will begin to rank. Until then, let's take a look at some trends.
First, let's define our scoring system used last year:
The positions were QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE, FLEX, K, DST.
1 point for every 20 passing yards, 4 points for a passing touchdown, -3 for any turnover.
1 point for every 10 passing yards, 6 points for a rushing or receiving touchdown. Return yards and touchdowns were scored as rushing yards.
3 points for a field-goal, 1 point for an extra point.
For the DST, you began with 30 points and lost 5 points per touchdown but gained 3 points for a turnover and 6 for a defensive touchdown.
Ok, so it was fairly standard. Here is what you really came to see. In our 20 team league, the average winning score was 152. Simple enough. Now, obviously, there are some blowouts. There are some freak low and high scoring weeks. Obviously, there are also some really good and bad teams that skew numbers. Right?
Not so. In fact, if you took the top 8 teams (only those who made the playoffs), you find that the average winning total was still 152.
How does this affect your draft preparation? Well, let's take a look.
I crunched the numbers for all returning players from last season (I needed to do that anyway and I felt that using only this year's players would help more than it hurt).
The PPG average for the top 50 QBs is 20
The PPG average for the top 100 RBs (PPR) is 13
The PPG average for the top 300 WRs (PPR) is 12
The PPG average for the top 30 TEs (PPR) is 11
The PPG average for the top 20 Ks is 9
The PPG average for the top 20 DSTs is 25
Ok. so I know that last one has thrown you a bit. Again, consider that I am only using data for returning players, meaning that about a third of last year's elite players are gone at each position. But, I will make an argument (in another post) at why it doesn't matter.
If you add all of that up, you come up with an average of 140 PPG. That's not woefully behind the 152 point average, but it's basically playing a position down each and every week. While a great player (a Lamar Jackson) can make up a lot of ground, not everyone is so fortunate. This comes down to point differential per position, something we discussed in depth last year. Click the link below and read about it.
Assessing Value to Position for Your 2016 Fantasy College Football Draft
So, you need to find 12 points more than your opponet each week. Most people's first thought is that a great QB is the easiest way to get over the hump. The issue is, there are typically five QBs who beat the standard deviation per year. In terms of returning QBs, there are are just two: Lamar Jackson and Quinton Flowers. Both of these beat the 5.8 Standard Deviation between the other top QBs.
In other words, they are the only two who don't have a value-based ranking (where you can decide to draft or not draft based upon value of other positions). Is your luck that good? Well, unfortunately, if you are in an odd spot in the draft, you are just out of luck.
The Standard Deviation at RB is a paltry 3.5. So, while there there isn't a great amount of point differential from one to the next, there is a plethora of running backs over the average. This means that there is inherent value in taking three above average RBs over a QB, especially the elites, provided you can get one. However, there around 3-5 of these guys. But, used together, 3 (assuming the use of FLEX) such RBs can make up 10.5 points.
The same can be said with receivers. While the position scores a modest 12 PPG (based on the top 300, of course), the top 30 score over 20 points per game. With a Standard Deviation of 4.6 points, there is a drastic step from one to the next, especially at the top. There are around ten WRs out there that will beat the Standard Deviation, making them a priority. Taking 3 of these players equates to almost 14 points per week.
Tight end has a deviation of just 2.8, meaning that there is virtually no way to make up a major point differential. There are only two TEs per year that typically beat the model, though it is worth mentioning that they, alone, can make up the point differential. There is obviously a ton of risk with using the TE to make up points.
In summation, there are a couple of ways to ensure that you can draft a team capable of hitting 150+ points each week, even if you don't get a premier QB. Even with an average QB, understanding the standard deviation and average scores of each position can help you find that winning formula.
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
College Fantasy Football's Best Teammate Double-Ups for 2017
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Check out my Fish of 2014
Follow my Fish of 2015
It's almost time, yall. Fantasy football is about to gear up. Wait. That's not right. It's already here and if you haven't started your pre-draft work, then you are behind.
It's cool. I got you.
Up first is one of my favorite fantasy football topics: Teammate Double Ups.
What is a Teammate Double Up? It's when you draft and play a QB and a WR (or TE, RB, etc). Why would you do that? Well, there is certainly some risk involved. Obviously staking your future on teammates can backfire on you. A struggle by one is a struggle by both. But, there are undeniable upsides.
Take a look at just what one play can do for you. Let's say you had Clemson's Watson/Leggett combo, which is one of my top picks from last year. Clemson and Leggett formed perhaps the best QB/TE pair in the country. On just one play, the two hooked up for a 56 yard bomb.
Let's do some math. 56 passing yards is 2.8 points for Watson, the touchdown is 4 points for Watson. Leggett cashes in for a point for the reception, 5.6 points in receiving yards and another 6 for the TD. All together, that play is worth 19.4 points, and that's on the low end of scoring systems. In other systems, that could have been worth almost 25 points. More importantly, these two teamed up for a combined 226.4 points over the course of the season. That's solid numbers for anyone, but amazing production for a QB/TE combination.
Now, imagine the production between, say, MTSU's Stockstill and James. Try a combined 493 points. That's right. You could expect a weekly 9- 125-1 performance between the two or an astounding 38 combined points per week. Considering that it takes around 120 points (depending on your league layout) to be competitive, two players have a guaranteed third of your needed production to win week to week.
So, take a look at my picks from last year.I hit some very, very good combos. And the Stockstill/James combo is one I held back for myself.
It's 2017. Let's talk turkey.
Believe it or not, the SEC has three very legitimate combos.
Brent Stockstill/Richie James- We talked about what they did last year. It is highly unlikely they could repeat this performance of 105-1625-12. Keep in mind that the two chipped in 580 rushing yards and 4 more rushing TDs. The Blue Raiders have to break in three new offensive linemen and they do it against Vandy in week one. That isn't exactly the defense you'd want to face the first week. But, hey, it's gonna happen in Conference USA.
Drew Locke/J'Mon Moore- This is an easy one, really. Locke threw for over 250 yards in all but three contest last season including five performances of over 300 yards. In all, Locke threw for 3400 yards, though his touchdown to INT ratio wasn't great. Still, 62 passes and over 1,000 of those yards went to Moore, who put 8 of those passes into the endzone. The Tigers from Columbia have one of the easier SEC schedules and also play Missouri State, Idaho, Purdue, and UConn. Auburn and UGA are the only legitimate threats to slow down the Tigers. Most importantly, the offensive line that allowed just one sack per game is completely back.
Mason Rudolph/James Washington- This is an absolute no-brainer. 71-1380-10 on the year between the two. Soft defensive conference. The issue? These are likely early first round and early third round picks.
Jalen Hurts/Calvin Ridley- There is a lot of talk about Hurts retaining his status as the Tide's starting QB, an astounding statement to the Bama program considering this is the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. First, I am going to say that I don't believe he was THAT good as a game winning QB. But, I am willing to say that, not only will he be the Tide's starter in 2017, he will be a great fantasy QB. Calvin Ridley was a bit of a disappointment last year. I do believe in the sophomore slump, which is why I exercised SOME caution. Still, he was 72-77-7, which were solid WR2 numbers, despite having a lot of production stolen by Hurts' running and All-World OJ Howard at TE. Ridley will easily be the dominate playmaker outside of Hurts and I say that because of the crowded (and talented) backfield. Bama is stacked on the offensive line and, outside of the opener against FSU (Saban is 100% in these openers and is winning BIG, BTW), Alabama will sleep walk into November. I'm not saying these two will win you the league. I am saying these are two pieces to get you to the playoff.
Nick Fitzgerald/Donald Gray-Fitzgerald was an amazing out-of-nowhere surprise as he put up 105 rushing yards per game. When he wasn't scampering for the 3rd best QB rushing numbers, he was hitting Gray to the tune of 41-709-5. Now, I recognize those numbers aren't astounding, but bear with me. First, Fitzgerald is a run-first QB (though he will undoubtedly come along this year as a passer under Mullen). You get double the points from Fitz rushing, as it is. Mississippi State losses Fred Ross, who was Fitz's Go-To guy. Listing these guys is a projection of Fitz's rushing and Gray stepping up as a pass catcher. There are going to be games that are scary, pretty much every SEC West game and even the contest at UGA. State also losses the entire offensive line. So, let's not be too Bull-ish on these guys.
Lamar Jackson/Jaylen Smith- Like the above combo, this is less about combined production and more about piggybacking. Lamar Jackson was unstoppable...until the playoffs. That's a story for another day. Obviously Jackson was a complete threat to score points at will. Someone has to catch some of those and Smith is coming off a 27-600-6 campaign where he was the team leader (and a national leader) in yards per catch despite playing behind two NFL talents of Quick/Hikutini. Could a surprise WR step up? Sure. But this is a combo where you are going to get Jackson in the first round and you can draft Smith much, much later as a flyer that could pay big dividends. One other thing I am projecting is that the offensive line couldn't be worse and Jackson undoubtedly wants to progress as a passer for his NFL legitimacy.
Trace McSorely/Mike Gesicki/Saquon Barkley/DaeSean Hamilton- Own The Team? Maybe. It's been an interesting ride for DaeSean Hamilton. He has seen his targets drop each and every year after 82-900-2 as a freshman. His numbers were nearly cut in half in 2015 and he saw even last last season as he went 34-506-1. However, that doesn't tell the whole story. Chris Godwin exploded for the Nittany Lions with the rise of McSorely before Godwin went to Tampa Bay. Gesicki also exploded on the scene for 48-680-5 as a tight end and Barkley kicked in 28-400-4. Under it all, Hamilton's pass catching efficiency went up significantly, though he is far from an elite fantasy talent. Penn State returns four of five linemen who allowed 1.7 sacks per game. That number should be better, especially since Iowa represents the sole challenge for them until a tough four game stretch against Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State. Now, I'm not telling you to draft all Penn State players, but at least consider it. Both McSorely and Barkley are obvious targets. Gesicki is a top returning tight end and Hamilton could be a great late round flyer.
Logan Woodside/Cody Thompson/Jon'Vea Johnson-104-2,000-20 . What else do you need to know? How about three of five linemen from a unit that allowed a little over one sack per game and Miami as the only Power Five team on the schedule? The only worry is that Kareem Hunt and his 1400 yards are gone and that may cause defenses to game plan around the passing game. In the end, this was the 7th ranked offense in the country. It's fair to say these guys are must-owns, especially considering their value as a package instead of individual value.
Zach's Sneaky Picks
Will Grier/Ka'Raun White- There is nothing. Nothing. I LOVE more than a Dana Holgorsen Team Mate Double-Up. While the Mountaineers are known to choke in crunch time, they are also deadly when they are favored.West Virginia didn't score a ton of points last year (50th), but they were still 17th in total offense behind Skylar Howard. Will Grier SHOULD be eligible week one and I truly believe he will be a perfect match with Holgorsen. Grier was 1200-10-3 in his short stint at Florida before being suspended for PEDs. He also took a whooping 13 sacks in those games while adding 2 rushing TDs. He was on the cusp of being very, very good. White is entering the fall as the WR1, by default, after going 48-580-5 last year as WVU's No. 3 man. If one were smart, one could get RB Justin Crawford early and sit back for these two guys.
Baker Mayfield/Mark Andrews- Mayfield isn't going passed pick 10. Get used to that idea. While the Sooners are absolutely loaded on the offensive line, there was a mass exodus of skill positions. In fact, tight end Andrews is the leading returning receiver after a 31-490-7 year. Someone will surely step up for new head coach Lincoln Riley, but can you afford to draft them? Andrews is a solid late pick as a TE1. The two of them together will have some great success on the field. You might as well cash in.
Quinton Flowers/D'Ernest Johnson- Flowers is another one that isn't sneaking anywhere, but Johnson may. Gone is Marlon Mack and Johnson is in line to take over the lead back role, though Flowers led the team in rushing yards (1,500). Flowers is another QB who may be eyeing the NFL, making Johnson the beneficiary of a lot more touches. Johnson as a RB1 or RB2 may be a stretch, but his utility as a pass catcher make him very, very valuable FLEX play at the very least. He put up solid reception totals of 28-300-5 last season which expands his career totals to 62-750-10. He is a major threat in the passing game as it is and he added 550 yards and 8 TDs on the ground as a backup runner. The Bulls have to replace two linemen but play a joke of a schedule. They are poised to repeat as one of the very best offenses in the country.
Arion Worthman/Tim McVey- This one is a BIT of a stretch, but hear me out. Not everyone can get studs at all positions. Sometimes you have to settle. Let me give you one rock-solid way to settle. Worthman played about a third of the year last season for Air Force. He passed for 546 yards and 4 TDs while tossing 2 INTs. He also added 670 yards and 6 more TDs on the ground. Again, keep in mind that was as a part time starter. McVey is an established runner who had 708 yards and 10 TDs. The amazing thing is, he averaged a whopping 7 yards per carry despite not having a long over 40 yards. That's stunning. It means this guy is as rock solid a runner as you are going to find. He did it behind Nate Romine, who led a balanced attack and three other departed runners who had more carries. Both of these guys could have stellar years and are terrific late options. If they are used strategically, they could be excellent, especially against lesser opponents.
Nick Stevens/Michael Gallup- Few QBs finished the year as solid as Stevens. Despite missing the first half of the season riding the pine after being 2nd Team All-Mountain in 2015, Stevens responded in a big way. He threw at least two touchdowns in every game to end the season including an astounding NINE in the last two games of the season. So take that Fair-to-Midland 1936-19-5 stat and flush it cause that was HALF a season. Gallup finished with 76-1200-14, an elite season. Check this, though. Until Stevens entered the lineup against Boise State in week 7, Gallup had 25 total catches and just three TDs with just one game over 100 yards. Gallup erupted down the stretch with Stevens commanding the offense. 51 catches and 11 TDs later, it is fair to say the combo became elite. The lowest output for the tandem? 4-91-1. That's 28 points....on their bad day. The Rams do have to retool the offensive line a bit and they have Alabama on September 16th. Still, Mike Bobo has this program on the rise.
Thursday, October 6, 2016
Week 6 SEC Picks
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Check out my Fish of 2014
Follow my Fish of 2015
Sorry I am late, everyone! Just got back into town. Ok. So, last week wasn't my best week. Thank you Bama and Florida. That resulted in a 4-6 mark, thanks to completely missing those two games. My total mark now stands at 26-26, good for .500. We need to get back on the right track. Maybe I should spend a little more time on these picks....
Auburn at Mississippi State
Auburn is a 3.5 point road favorite and the under/over is set at 54.5. This looks to be a tight game as even the money line is -150/130. The Bulldogs do not have a competent offense, leaning on UMASS for 47 points to lift their dreadful numbers. Excluding that game, the Dogs have scored 27 points once and 20 points twice. WR Fred Ross is the only legitimate threat to Auburn, having scored four of MSU's 12 total TDs. Some care must be given to the QB Fitzgerald, the team's leading rusher. Though he is averaging seven YPC, he hasn't scored a TD. MSU's defense? The 48th ranked total defense has kept only one offense (South Carolina) under 20 points.
On the other side, Auburn could be looking at a statement game. Sure, beating LSU was a shocker, but the luster was taken off after Les Miles was fired. This Auburn team is very, very close to being a complete team. On defense, Auburn is limiting offenses to just 16 points a game and that includes some top-tier offenses. Auburn can, and will shut down Fred Ross while limiting Fitzgerald's ability to run. On offense, Auburn faces a team that limits the run but gives up 250 pass yards a game. The rushing yards allowed (150) looks good, but it's against teams that can't run the ball. This will create a false sense of security that Auburn's Pettway and Johnson will exploit. Auburn's passing game is coming along nicely. Auburn should jump out early and lean on the run game. Take Auburn to cover the spread and the under on points.
LSU at Florida
Luke Del Rio is back, and that's a welcome site for Gator fans. Appleby was averaging just 5 yards per completion is his start and that won't cut it against a very athletic LSU defense. The major issue for LSU will be containing Florida WR Antonio Callaway. Despite sketchy play at QB, Callaway has 20 catches for 371 yards and two TDs. But, it is Florida's Powell and Goolsby that are the real X-factors. LSU hasn't played a team with multiple playmakers at wideout. These two may not have the yardage on go-to guy Callaway, but they are where the TD production comes from, having added three TDs combined.
Against Tennessee, Florida struggled to contain the Vol's multiple recievers as well, having nearly three 100-yard pass catchers. However, Florida has only Dural to contain and they have just man to do it.
The difference in the game will be LSU's Guise. With limited game film to study, Florida will not be able to prepare for Guise, who tuned up Missouri last week.
LSU is a 3 point favorite with an over/under of 41. Much of that is attributed to the perceived strength of the defenses as well as the expected weather in Gainesville. Both teams are 1-4 against the spread and neither are good as underdogs. Something has to give. Take LSU to cover and the over on points.
Tennessee at Texas A&M
TAMU is a seven point favorite. Anytime you get around those numbers, you have to watch out. This typically means that the game's results is pretty well understood. TAMU is 4-1 AGT. Tennessee is 1-0 on the road. TAMU is a perfect 3-0 at home. The over/under is 58. Only half of these two team's games have gone under 58 points. The Vol's two games were against out of conference games. The Aggie' three were against UCLA, Auburn, and South Carolina. But, two of those were on the road.
We can discuss how the two team's stack up, but injuries are the real story. The Aggies may be without some combination of Myles Garrett, Ricky Seales-Jones, and Speedy Noil while the Vols will be without Jalen Hurd.
Hurd seems to be the most likely to miss and without him, the Vols will have to lean on the legs and arm of Dobbs. This is a very, very scary proposition for the Vols. I do think the Vols have the edge on pass catchers (Jennings/Malone) and Dobbs ability to run from the shotgun and buy time could be a huge hurdle for a TAMU team that hasn't faced the likes of those two WRs. Being without Garrett on the edge gives a huge lean to TAMU. But, with Sumlin not giving out the info, we have to go with what we know. ***Note: Hurd to play***
Expect UT to get the back door cover and the over on points.
Georgia at South Carolina
Another game sitting on a critical seven. This time, UGA is favored by the TD. The over/under is sitting at 40.5. Undoubtedly, the public believes that the combination of weather and UGA's run game will mean a low scoring affair with Nick Chubb back from injury. Indeed, USC has given up 97 or more yards in all but one game this year. a win against East Carolina.
South Carolina is averaging just 301 yards per game including a dreadful 197 yards in the air per game. UGa is giving up 240 yards in the air, but the crosswind expected from the hurricane will affect this. This will be a run-first game, but turnovers will create short fields, hurting USC more than UGA. UGA covers and roll with the over.
Alabama at Arkansas
Bama is a 14 point favorite and the over/under line stands at 49. Taking out the overtime game against TCU, the Hogs have done a fair job at playing D, aside from giving up 45 to TAMU two weeks ago. Keep in mind that the Hogs laid three fumbles on the grass in that loss.
Alabama has now scored a DST TD in seven straight games. Brett Bielema has preached ball security and special teams play the last two weeks. That streak will end Saturday.
Bama is 3-2 against the spread and the Hogs are 1-1 as an underdog.
The last two games between these two teams have been terrific. Last year was 27-14 and 2014 was 14-13, both going to the Tide who have won 9 straight.
This will be where Jalen Hurts will struggle and it will be an environment that struggles will be hard to get up from. Take the Hogs to cover and the under on points.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Week 5 SEC Picks
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Check out my Fish of 2014
Follow my Fish of 2015
Another .500 week in the books which brings me to 22-20. I need a good week and this one looks like a good one to get right.
Florida at Vandy
Florida opens as a ten point favorite and the over/under is set at 40. After giving up only 14 total points in three games, Florida wilted against UT and doubled that score. Vandy has been a mixed bag. Their lone decent defensive effort was against South Carolina before USC made a critical change at QB. Ralph Webb is averaging 5 yards a carry, a respectable number. That's just slightly less than his QB's average per attempt while adding in just two TD tosses to two INTs.
Florida will bounce back big by stacking the box on Webb and forcing Schurmer to throw against the Gators terrific secondary. The 40 point over/under may be fool's gold, but you almost have to take it. Take Florida to cover and the over on points.
Texas A&M at South Carolina
USC is an 18 point dog at home with a 48 point over/under. The Gamecocks have not scored more than 20 points in any contest this year and that is against the bottom of the SEC and East Carolina. Their defense has been respectable, but it will wilt against the Aggie offense thanks to a very, very good Aggie defense that will both shorten the field and that will keep the Gamecock defense on the field far longer than they can handle. This game should be close at half, but it will be a trainwreck late.
I don't see South Carolina getting anything going against this defense who is far superior.
Take TAMU and the over.
Kentucky at Alabama
Alabama is favored by 35 point favorite with a 57.5 point over/under. What is there to really say about this game? Really the only thing that could possibly happen is for Bama to maybe look forward to next week's top 20 matchup between the Tide and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Still, Alabama has scored at least 38 points in every game this season.
Kentucky has been able to score, but has only 24 points in two SEC contests. Neither of those games were on the level of Alabama. While Ole Miss did put up 43 points, it is worth noting that the other three games thus far have been laughable, a mere 16 points scored. Take Alabama to cover and the under on points...but only because Saban wishes it.
Memphis at Ole Miss
Ole Miss opens as a 14.5 point favorite at home with a 67 point over/under. Everyone remembers this game from last year, of course. But, this game isn't in Memphis nor is Fuente still the coach. A Tennessee transfer is running the show behind center. Ole Miss is going to cover this spread and perhaps even the entire under/over by themselves. Keep in mind that Ole Miss hasn't exactly kept people out of the endzone. Take Ole Miss and the Over.
Tennessee at Georgia
UT is a 3.5 favorite with a 53 over/under. Will UT suffer an emotional hangover after ending the streak? UT beat UGA last season after Chubb went out with a first play from scrimmage injury and the Dogs haven't been the same since. Sure, this game is in Athens but Georgia's defense has been deplorable. They have allowed at least 24 points to every team they've faced, though it should be noted they have played some decent competition.
Still, UT seems to have finally found their identity. Take the Vols and the over on points.
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
SEC Week 4 Picks
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Check out my Fish of 2014
Follow my Fish of 2015
Well, this weekend certainly didn't go as I had hope. Sure, I was 5-5 in handicapping but I consider that lucky considering just how random the games seemed to go. There were some good picks and some bad ones. The Vandy vs Georgia Tech pick, for example. Started out 0-2 on that one. Ouch. The good news is, I am still 18-16 for the year, which is 53%. That's exactly where I was after week one. Tons of great games this week!
Florida at Tennessee
This game has been circled for a long, long time for UT. So much so that they really haven't bothered to show up to play, other than the second half of the Bristol Bowl.
Florida is quietly slipping into Rocky Top 3-0, having played no one of note. They've allowed just 14 points this year and shut out North Texas this past Saturday.
UT has been fortunate enough that the great experiment in letting Dobbs progress as a passer when he is clearly a runner hasn't hurt the Vols. Forcing the issue against Florida is a recipe for disaster. I do believe that UT will play its best game of the season, thus far. However, they are prone to penalties and mistakes. Let's be honest, though. Betting against the Vols has worked out well for most of the sharps. Florida will be relying on a backup QB. With a 7.5 line and a 43.5 over/under, I am going to call for Florida to cover that spread in a tight, tight game and I will take the under.
LSU at Auburn
Trying to understand either of these teams is folly. Why bet on teams that don't know what they are doing? I don't know. But, there are some things we do know: Auburn has kept the under in both of its games against good competition. Of course, that's partly because the offense has been so absolutely terrible while the defense has looked fantastic.
LSU is currently a 3.5 point favorite and that line just seems silly considering what Fournette did to Auburn last year and what the LSU team is capable of doing to anyone on a good day. The Auburn offense just looks sad.
This could be Gus' last game at Auburn and that does provide some sort of reasoning to think Auburn could win this game. But I don't buy it. Take LSU. The over/under is 46.5. Both of these defenses are very, very good. Therefore, I will take the under.
Arkansas at Texas A&M
I wasn't terribly impressed with Texas A&M Saturday night at Auburn. That doesn't mean that the Aggie defensive ends weren't impressive, because they were. However, the clinic that was put on display wasn't about TAMU's defense as much as Herb Hand and Gus Malzahn simply being unprepared and unwilling to coach against the Aggie front. Time and time again they tried to pull on offensive lineman and it didn't work. On the flip side, Auburn consistently moved the ball in the heart of the Aggie defense.
Guess what, that's exactly what Brett Bielema and Co are going to do. They will find success, but what will they do if and when they get down? This is the one team in the SEC West that the Hogs have yet to beat.
TAMU is a six point favorite at home. This game has gone to OT in the past two years. I'd take the over and Texas A&M to cover.
Georgia at Ole Miss
There isn't a team in America that has done what Ole Miss has done: give up huge first half leads. UGA has given up at least 24 points in every game this year. Ole Miss will score and won't let up in the second half. Take Ole Miss to cover the 7 and the over on the 60 point line.
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Best5Zach's Week 3 SEC Picks
Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!
Check out my Fish of 2014
Follow my Fish of 2015
Whew. That was a rough week. Thankfully, I didn't add a pick for the TCU vs Arkansas game. Although I probably would have gone the right way with it, it was wild enough that I didn't need that kind of stress in my life. Watching it was stressful enough. I went 5 and 5 this past weekend, which brings my yearly total to 13 and 11 for a combined 54%, same as it was last week, obviously.
Biggest miss of the year? Last week's Florida vs Kentucky. Now look, Florida has been really, really bad on offense and NO ONE has played Florida tougher than Kentucky since Urban Meyer left the Swamp. But, I missed both picks. Luckily, I nailed the Auburn vs Arkansas State and Tennessee got me the "over."
Vandy at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 124th is passing and 24th in rushing offense. Vandy ranks 36th in rushing defense, allowing 108 yards per game and having allowed just one rushing TD. Thing is, GT ranks that high just because of their game against Mercer this past weekend. Boston College, perhaps the best run stuffing team in the Nation, held GT to just 119 rushing yards. 68 of those came on one play. In all, the Yellowjackets averaged a paltry 2.7 yards per carry.
On the other side, Vandy showed some life on offense this past week when they got Webb off and running. He is now averaging 6.8 yards per carry. In the loss against South Carolina, he was held to 20 carries and 97 yards for an average over 5 YPC. One has to wonder what would have happened with just a few more touches.
The biggest stat is this: Georgia Tech currently has the 6th best redzone defense in the nation. Vandy is tied at first with redzone offense. Amazingly, they have scored seven TDs in nine tries. Six of those on the ground. Tech is a 6.5 point favorite at home. Vandy has been unable to prove themselves as a winner, but I do think they cover this spread. The over/under is currently 42.5. Take Vandy and the under.
Texas A&M at Auburn
Auburn showed some life on offense by rolling up more than 700 yards on offense and adding two 100-yard rushers. TAMU is currently ranked 20th in rushing defense but 95th in passing. However, they sit at 14th in the stat that matters: scoring defense. Their week one win against UCLA in overtime was offset by a horrible matchup this past weekend, however. UCLA and Auburn are very similar offenses and TAMU struggled mightily against an off performance by Josh Rosen.
Auburn's defense isn't as good as the performances on the field might suggest, but they mismatches are all on the side of the Tigers.The question will be if TAMU exploits mismatch in pass pro on Auburn's linebackers, which is where Arkansas State succeeded. However, because TAMU has no run game, Auburn will be in nickle and dime coverage for most of the game to offset it.
Auburn is a 3.5 point favorite at home. The over/under is set at 54. Take the Tigers and the points and the under.
Mississippi State at LSU
Yes, State lost to South Alabama. But, understand that South Alabama is no pushover. The Bulldogs were simply unprepared. State has a very underrated and underappreciated defensive line that has stuffed the run. They are 12th against the run while giving up gobs of yards in the air. Meanwhile. LSU has been a mess on offense. I like first time starters in non-marque games and this game definitely qualifies as one of those.
On the other side of the ball, LSU has been LSU. State continues to look for an identity. You almost have to take LSU by default because the believe is that State won't be able to do anything against LSU. However, keep in mind that QB Nick Fitzgerald didn't play much against South Alabama and completely dominated South Carolina. He did his damage by running to the tune of 195 yards. That's a school record. Limited film and a struggling LSU team is a terrific recipe.
Speaking of, Dak tuned up LSU both years that he was a starter. LSU's front continues to struggle against dual threat QBs. LSU opens as a 12.5 favorite and the over/under sits at 45. Take State to beat the spread and the over on points.
Georgia at Missouri
Talk about a bad game. This one will be almost unwatchable. Missouri isn't in the first page of defensive rankings. Why? Because their offense is offensive.
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel may not have the best yards per carry, but one has to believe all the Dawgs have to do is keep handing the ball off. It (whoever is at QB) can manage to go 50% without an INT, Georgia walks. The Dawgs are 6.5 point favorites and the over/under sits at 50.5. They cover that in a laugher. Take UGA all the way and the over. I do believe UGA dominates but I don't see that many points.
Game of the Week
Alabama at Ole Miss
As much as I could talk for days about this game, I don't have to.
Ole Miss' defense has regressed drastically. Alabama got the a** chewing it needed (though I think everyone knew what was coming with Western Kentucky). The streak stops here and Alabama walks away from Oxford with an easy win. The line is 9.5 and I believe Alabama will double that. The over under is 54.5 points Take Alabama and the points as well as the over.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)