Thursday, July 13, 2017

Forgotten Fantasy Gems: QB Transfers

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Out of sight, out of mind, right? So, we covered some of the most impact college fantasy football players returning from injury. You can read that post by clicking the link below.

Now, it's time to move on to the most impact fantasy transfers. Just like injuries, many of these are guys that have had to sit out a year after a promising start elsewhere, or possibly just didn't get a chance to capitalize at their previous destination. 

Obviously, QBs dominate most lists, and for good reason. If your plan was to wait until late in the draft for a QB anyway, waiting until possibly free agency is even better (see Davis Webb from Texas Tech to Cal last season). 

With that said, QB transfers have a list of their own simply because of the value of the position. I am well aware that there are a lot of these guys and it's easy to extrapolate limited success to big-time numbers. So, take your time and follow the logic. 

Breakout Players

Will Grier (West Virginia)- Grier was doing really, really well at Florida before a PED suspension. He is my number one transfer because he has demonstrated superior ability at the SEC level. Now he is with West Virginia and Dana Holgorsen. In terms of systems I trust year in and year out, Holgorsen is up there. His offense has been incredible with elite talent like Geno Smith and very good with just average talent like Clint Trickett and Skyler Howard.  Grier is at least between those two levels. The professionals have him slated as a mid-6th round pick but many people may not think about him.

Damian Williams (Texas State)- This highly touted recruit has been behind two very, very good players at Mississippi State before transferring to Texas State.  In his appearances over the course of three years, Williams was over 60% completion ratio, but it is his rushing ability that is going to be of interest. He ran for almost 300 yards in his short career and averaged better than 5 yards per carry in 2016. Texas State wants a dual-thread guy and former QB Tyler Jones looked to be that guy. However, after running for 1,000 yards and 16 TDs in 2014 and 2015, he posted just 30 yards and 5 TDs while averaging 0.3 YPC. His passing yards declined for two straight years as well. Williams could be the guy that Jones should have been. 

Kyle Allen (Houston)- This is one of my more speculative picks. Tom Herman and Greg Ward, Jr are gone and Major Applewhite steps in. Make no mistake, this will be a down year for Houston. Allen is not the pure athlete that Ward was and Applewhite is no Tom Herman. However, the AAC isn't the SEC and by a wide margin. We saw fellow former Texas A&M Kenny Hill have success at TCU and Allen is probably a better passer. He has a 33:14 TD/INT ratio which should greatly improve agaist the AAC defenses. Now, will his receivers be as talented? No. But, he should still pile up the numbers. Still, Allen's spring performance leaves something to be desired and the presence of Duke Catalon at RB may change the focus of the offense. 

Thomas Sirk (ECU)- When healthy, Sirk was fantasy gold, especially early on in daily leagues. His ability to run the ball gave him an immediate 2:1 edge in fantasy points. He rushed for 1,000 yards and 16 TDs in his first two years. His passing wasn't too shabby either, posting 2,600-16-8 stat line in 2015. 5 of those INTs came in the last four games he played, but he passed for 190+ yards in 9 of his games. ECU has had tremendous success on offense in the past and second year coach Scott Montgomery furthered that mark last season with 467 yards per game. However, the team just couldn't get it in the endzone with two different QBs posting a 24:12 TD/INT ratio. RB James Summers led the Pirates and now he is with the Cardinals. This is the perfect mixture for Sirk, if only he can stay healthy. 

De'Andre Johnson (FAU)- Another speculative pick, here. He never saw the field at FSU after punching a woman at a bar. At EMCC, he went for over 2600-26 in the air and 800-5 on the ground. It's not as much about Johnson's ability or what he did at Last Chance U nearly as much as it is for respect for Lane Kiffin and Kendall Briles. I just don't see how this could go wrong. 

Risky Transfers
Any Alabama Transfer- Blake Barnett, David Cornwell
Max Browne (Pitt)- If OC Canada hadn't moved to LSU, Browne would be on this list 
Anu Soloman (Baylor)- Couldn't do it at Arizona. Baylor isn't what it was
Shane Morris (Central Michigan)- Just too much risk here
Tanner Lee (Nebraska)- Sure, he was decent at Tulsa, but Tulsa was playing from behind a lot. Lee isn't what Tommy Armstrong was, and that isn't saying too terribly much.