Thursday, August 10, 2017

College Fantasy Football Early Trends: QBs

I know all of you were waiting on me to put on some lists on sleepers, best picks, etc. Turns out, CFF is pretty small and even this seemingly small blog gets a lot of readers and I didn't feel like divulging many secrets.

How selfish of me, right?

Yeah, yeah. But I have a lot of money on the line. I'm playing in six money leagues right now with many of them having steep buy-ins. So, forgive me for selfishness.

Anyways, the first round of drafts are in the books and I thought I would talk a little about them, especially just the Power Five.

The first note that I have for everyone is that most leagues are going to a two QB system. This isn't new. The NFL fantasy world is also going to this en-mass. I think the main reason is that, as we have discussed earlier, there are about five elite QBs and their production is so overwhelming that it is almost impossible to make up the difference with elite players at other positions. With a two QB league, you can make up the ground as their are about 100 QBs that score between 20-25 points per game.

Still, beating an elite QB is possible and, to be honest, isn't that difficult. Yes, I understand that your chances against Lamar Jackson, week to week, was a nearly impossible task. But we are talking about winning a league, not winning a week. If you drafted smart and didn't fall for the mediocre QB in first and second round because everyone else did it mentality, you did well. Honestly, I finished 2nd in our 20-team league and I didn't draft a QB until the 7th round, but I digress.

It's no surprise that Lamar Jackson holds serve as the consensus number one Average Draft Position player in all of CFF. Everything points to him being that player, but I couldn't help but be wary of him, not that I had top pick in any draft, anyway. Was he the best fantasy player last year? Yep. Up until when people needed him the most: the playoffs. Luckily, most owners didn't have to burn first round picks on him last year. They did this year. Can you afford to struggle in week 12? Couple that with the history that literally every player like him has: trying to become something he isn't for the NFL draft. And, he lost some very, very valuable pieces around him. With Jackson, you are one hit away from flushing a season and that is a risk I couldn't take, but I understand.

Right behind him may be the biggest reach in all of CFF: Nick Fitzgerald. He sports a 2.74 ADP that is essentially all speculation and it is 100% due to the player ahead of him. Lamar Jackson. Look, I see what Fitz did last season. But, he caught the vast majority of teams by surprise after State started the year with a loss to South Alabama. He has to go on the road to UGA and Auburn in back to back weeks and that's after hosting LSU. People were just afraid of having him slip through the cracks and took him early. I get it. But, you could have waited on a very, very similar QB much later in the draft.

You know, like Jalen Hurts. Hurts ADP is 20 points behind Fitzgerald. I can understand why Hurts is at 20, just not why Fitz is that much higher. I get that Fitz had a lot more rushing yards and rushing TDs, but that is something that cannot be counted on, year to year. In addition, Bama is as stable as ever, despite losing Lane Kiffin and Bama has better weapons surrounding Hurts. Will that give Fitz an advantage when it comes to rushing yards? Maybe. And that's the risk you take, but a whole round isn't worth the risk to me.

Shea Patterson is another interesting reach. Though he played in only a few games (and played well), he is sitting as a back end first round or early second round pick. Considering the situation in Oxford, I just can't understand the move, other than assuming the Rebels are going to be playing from behind a lot. But, they are going to be playing behind to a lot of very good teams who aren't going to let him get a bunch of garbage time scores. In fact, the Rebels are more likely to pull the young star before letting him get killed. He is their future. Patterson is sitting at a ADP of 23, just under Hurts. Who would you rather have?

Plenty of people are putting their faith in offensive systems. It's interesting that Luke Falk is a known commodity in an Air Raid system (ADP of 7.5) and Nic Shimonek at Texas Tech is not, but the two are separated by about a round and only six places in terms of the position. Shimonek was drafted as a top-tier QB across the land without having done a thing yet.

No QB fell more in the draft that Kansas State's Jesse Ertz. Despite being a top rushing threat (1,000 yards and 12 TDs last season despite modest passing yards), Ertz slipped and slipped again during drafts. It appears that people saw the red flag by his name and turned a blind eye. Surprise, it was a separated shoulder and the senior is going to be ready to go. This is a guy who is projected for an average of 26 PPG but was drafted alongside guys a full touchdown less. He has a ADP of 137 and is a great risk adverse QB, thanks to solid rushing numbers.

Nobody seems to be willing to bite on transfers Blake Barnett or Malik Zaire. I can't say I blame them on that. 100% of leagues are taking a chance on Auburn's own Jarrett Stidham, your's truly included. Stidham sports an ADP around 114, not bad for a guy who hasn't proven anything. The former air raid QB from Baylor is just as likely to be the perfect mix for Auburn's run heavy offense as he is to be a footnote. He's a great flyer. He is not a 4th round pick. But, hey, I have an excuse. I'm a homer.

Best value? There are some guys much higher that you might have gotten for a good deal, but Austin Allen was a guy that you could literally leave until the 10th round and stock up on skill positions. Allen has been super solid at Arkansas. He isn't a game buster, but in leagues where you can have six or so RBs playing at the same time, it is much better to stock up on those guys and wait for a guy like Allen. Is he going to light up the top of the SEC? Probably not. But he is a 250-2TD guy all day long. His ADP is in the 200s. Just think about that.