Tuesday, October 11, 2016

SEC Week 7 Picks

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Well well! Looks like I done made up for that stinker of a week last week. I nailed some picks this go 'round including The UT vs TAMU, the Auburn vs Mississippi State, and the UGA vs South Carolina. I blanked on the Alabama vs Arkansas picks, however. All told, I hit six total picks while missing two. That brings my overall record to 32-28, which is a 53% hit rate. 

Mississippi State vs BYU
This will most likely be a Friday night stinker. BYU is favored by 7.5 points and the over/under is 56 points. The money line is awfully interesting  because of how close it is. +245 for State and -290 for BYU. BYU hasn't won or lost by more than 17 points. All three losses were by three or less. State is 1-4 against the spread and 0-2 on the road. BYU is 5-1 against the spread but 0-1 as a favorite. State is currently allowing more points than they are scoring while the opposite is marginally true for BYU. While BYU has played some very potent offenses, State has been scored on by teams that don't belong on the field with an SEC opponet. I'd take BYU to cover and the over on points. 

Ole Miss at Arkansas
Ole Miss is a 7.5 point favorite with a whopping 65.5 over/under. Both of these teams have been a grab bag. Ole Miss' vaunted landshark defense hasn't been nearly the same this year. Against decent offenses, Arkansas has hemorrhaged points. Neither team has been very good against the spread. This is Ole Miss first time on the road. The Rebels seem to be able to throw the ball up and have those big recievers come down with it. I like Ole Miss to cover, but that over/under seems like a suckers bet. Take Ole Miss and the under. 

Missouri at Florida
The line is Florida -13.5 and a 51 point over/under. 
Missouri is coming off of a bye after being thrashed by LSU. Florida ducked LSU for their own bye week. The Gators spent the last two weeks on the road and are 3-0 at home having allowed 14 total points. Missouri's success has come from Drew Locke, who has 14 TDs and 4 INTs. However, Florida's offense continues to struggle. Take Missouri and the under. 

Vandy at Georgia
This one sits on a critical 14 point line in favor of UGA. It features a low over/under of  42.5. Vandy has gotten better and better on defense, even in losses to Kentucky and Florida. UGA continues to give up gobs of points. Though Vandy has given up almost 400 yards per game, it has stiffened in the redzone. That's where UGA will get them. Take UGA to cover and the under. 

Alabama at Tennessee
Bama is a 13.5 point favorite with an over/under of 57. Sure, it's a rivalry game. Except that UT hasn't won in awhile and they have like 10 starters out. Neyland is a little bigger and louder than Fayetteville and I do suspect Alabama's Hurts to struggle at some point this year. Even if he does, I still suspect Alabama to keep rolling. Take Bama to cover and the under.