Tuesday, October 18, 2016

SEC Week 8 Picks

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So, last week's picks were so bad that I almost don't want to make this week's picks. I picked exactly one pick right out of ten. That puts me deep in the red. Last week is one of those weeks that make you understand just how good Vegas really is. Not only was last week money for Vegas, but it shows just how good they know their lines. At least half of the lines were dead on. 

Anyway. That brings the overall record to 33-37. I am under 50% for the first time this year. 

Mississippi State at Kentucky
State is a very, very slim 3 point favorite on the road with a 54 point over/under. State is really better than their record would lead you to believe. They have outgained their opponents by a wide margin, giving up 360 yards while gaining over 400 per game. Kentucky, on the other hand, gives up 430 while gaining less than 350. Kentucky is 3-3 against the spread while State is 1-5 including a 1-3 mark as the favorite. In terms of the over, the two teams have combined to play just three games over 54 points. State coasts to a victory on the road and covers the three while the two teams stay under. 

Arkansas at Auburn
9.5 points for Auburn would seem like the biggest line of the week, if it weren't for the Alabama vs TAMU game. The over/under stands at 55.5. The FPI ranks Auburn as an 87% favorite.  The Hogs are 3-4-1 ATS and Auburn is a whopping 5-1. All signs point to an easy Auburn win. Auburn will likely lean on the run game and a much improved defense. Take Auburn and the under. 

Texas A&M at Alabama
Alabama is a 17 point favorite with an over/under of 58.5 points. TAMU is 5-1 and Bama is 5-2 ATS, so something has to give. Indeed, both teams gain over 500 yards per game, but Bama's defense could be the best Saban's ever had. TAMU is a good team, but wins against Tennessee and Auburn don't show the real Aggie team. Truth be told, Tennessee isn't any good and Auburn is a much better team than they were back in week three. Take Bama to roll and the over. 

Ole Miss at LSU
LSU is a 5.5 point favorite and the over under is an astounding 60.5 points. Ole Miss is essentially out of the SEC west race now, but a loss here would destroy their season. You can't help but have the feeling that LSU is hanging to a thread as well. Will Fournette suit up? I don't believe we will see him again. The FPI had LSU as a heavy favorite, but we haven't seen the best Ole Miss can play yet. LSU is allowing just 14 points per contest.  Ole Miss springs the upset and the score is much lower. Take Ole Miss and the under.