Fishing Report for Wheeler Lake/Ditto Landing 7/6/2017

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Everybody has seen the movie Happy Gilmore, correct?

As I loaded my stuff into my car around 8:45 last night, a scene from that movie popped into my head, stemming from a conversation that Josh and I had. 

There is a scene where Happy's golf coach, Chubbs, takes him to a mini-golf establishment to get better at putting. Happy, as you may know, could drive the ball 400 yards, but couldn't putt. Gilmore throws a fit and says "This is embarrassing, I am a professional golfer!"

And, of course, he proceeds to struggled to the point of futility. 

Fishing Ditto landing has become my mini-golf course. The stretch of river from 65 to Guntersville dam has been the clown that spits Happy's ball back at him, even after he FINALLY figures things out.

See, I feel the most confident fishing for 15+ plus pounds on huge bodies of water against a big club of fishermen. But put me up against 7-10 boats of local fishermen on a small body of water with even smaller fish, and I freakin' struggle. 

Don't really understand 'cause catching limits and winning checks in this tournament was never an issue until the last few years. I know we are INFINITELY better fishermen. Anyway, yall have heard this story before so I won't reiterate the same shtick. 

Two tournaments ago, there was good current. We went to the dam, caught two nice fish. Couldn't catch any more. Last week,  the water was high, so we went flipping. We caught two good fish doing that before relapsing into some junk fishing holes. But, we found fish. Just didn't have enough time. Go read that report here:

Fishing Report for Wheeler/Ditto Landing 6/22/2017

This week, same story. Good current. High water. We decided to do a combination of what had worked. In other words, hit a lot of eddys created by current breaks, start at the dam, and work back fairly quickly to cover water.

First spots, both on each side of the river within 300 yards of the dam were busts, though I did catch one measuring spot and one short spot on a Spro Little John DD. 

After scratching our heads a bit, we moved down to the painted bluffs, for no other reason than we suck and we should probably avoid doing anything we would normally do. Fishing bluffs facing into the current qualified. 

Wouldn't you know it, the fish started biting. 

Just one problem: they were all tiny spots. 

We caught five or so within 5 minutes on a combination of cranks such as the Spro Little John DD, the Hookset medium diver, and a Norman. All had a slight hint of Chartreuse. 

After finishing the stretch, we had to make a decision: spend some time there and hope to get some bigger ones to bite or to move on. 

Considering our experience has been that a collection of babies like that typically yields more babies, we moved on.

Would we have found bigger ones? We will never know. But outside of a few more short fish caught on a PowerTeam Lures 7" Tickler and a Pea Head, we caught just one more measuring fish: a nice keeper with about 2 minutes to go, right outside of Ditto Landing. 

I didn't stick around to see what won, but it was the best bags I've seen weighed in at Ditto this year, including some nice 5-pounders. 

I keep telling myself that getting my rear kicked is good for me. I mean, I know it is. Any time you can take a nice dose of humility, it's a good thing. I just thing I've had my fill.

Oh, and I almost forgot. I caught my first Saugar last night! Too bad I was kinda mad and threw it back.....

A Look at Last Year's CFF Scores in Predicting Value for This Year

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While it isn't quite time to start breaking down some individual position rankings, I think it is the right time to discuss some trends from last season and how it should affect your preparation going forward. First things first: last year wasn't a banner year in terms of fantasy football for me. Now, I did make the playoffs of every league I played in, but I only cashed a check in one of those leagues. To be fair, of course, I was in only three money leagues and was second in the biggest of those leagues. 

Anyway, that's enough about me. 

Two weeks ago, we began our preparation talking about teammate double ups. You can check out some of the very best double ups and some great sleepers for this year by reading the post below.

College Fantasy Football's Best Teammate Double-Ups for 2017

Today I want to discuss a few things and I really hope to get your feedback. 

Because I don't believe in downloading people's rankings (or buying them), I began to build spreadsheets (just like last year) based upon the statistics of returning players. From there, I will begin to rank. Until then, let's take a look at some trends.

First, let's define our scoring system used last year: 

The positions were QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE, FLEX, K, DST. 

1 point for every 20 passing yards, 4 points for a passing touchdown, -3 for any turnover.

1 point for every 10 passing yards, 6 points for a rushing or receiving touchdown. Return yards and touchdowns were scored as rushing yards. 

3 points for a field-goal, 1 point for an extra point.

For the DST, you began with 30 points and lost 5 points per touchdown but gained 3 points for a turnover and 6 for a defensive touchdown.

Ok, so it was fairly standard. Here is what you really came to see. In our 20 team league, the average winning score was 152. Simple enough. Now, obviously, there are some blowouts. There are some freak low and high scoring weeks. Obviously, there are also some really good and bad teams that skew numbers. Right? 

Not so. In fact, if you took the top 8 teams (only those who made the playoffs), you find that the average winning total was still 152. 

How does this affect your draft preparation? Well, let's take a look. 

I crunched the numbers for all returning players from last season (I needed to do that anyway and I felt that using only this year's players would help more than it hurt). 

The PPG average for the top 50 QBs is 20 

The PPG average for the top 100 RBs (PPR) is 13

The PPG average for the top 300 WRs (PPR) is 12

The PPG average for the top 30 TEs (PPR) is 11

The PPG average for the top 20 Ks is 9

The PPG average for the top 20 DSTs is 25

Ok. so I know that last one has thrown you a bit. Again, consider that I am only using data for returning players, meaning that about a third of last year's elite players are gone at each position. But, I will make an argument (in another post) at why it doesn't matter. 

If you add all of that up, you come up with an average of 140 PPG. That's not woefully behind the 152 point average, but it's basically playing a position down each and every week. While a great player (a Lamar Jackson) can make up a lot of ground, not everyone is so fortunate. This comes down to point differential per position, something we discussed in depth last year. Click the link below and read about it.

Assessing Value to Position for Your 2016 Fantasy College Football Draft

So, you need to find 12 points more than your opponet each week. Most people's first thought is that a great QB is the easiest way to get over the hump. The issue is, there are typically five QBs who beat the standard deviation per year. In terms of returning QBs, there are are just two: Lamar Jackson and Quinton Flowers. Both of these beat the 5.8 Standard Deviation between the other top QBs. 

In other words, they are the only two who don't have a value-based ranking (where you can decide to draft or not draft based upon value of other positions). Is your luck that good? Well, unfortunately, if you are in an odd spot in the draft, you are just out of luck. 

The Standard Deviation at RB is a paltry 3.5. So, while there there isn't a great amount of point differential from one to the next, there is a plethora of running backs over the average. This means that there is inherent value in taking three above average RBs over a QB, especially the elites, provided you can get one. However, there around 3-5 of these guys.  But, used together, 3 (assuming the use of FLEX) such RBs can make up 10.5 points. 

The same can be said with receivers. While the position scores a modest 12 PPG (based on the top 300, of course), the top 30 score over 20 points per game. With a Standard Deviation of 4.6 points, there is a drastic step from one to the next, especially at the top. There are around ten WRs out there that will beat the Standard Deviation, making them a priority. Taking 3 of these players equates to almost 14 points per week.

Tight end has a deviation of just 2.8, meaning that there is virtually no way to make up a major point differential. There are only two TEs per year that typically beat the model, though it is worth mentioning that they, alone, can make up the point differential. There is obviously a ton of risk with using the TE to make up points. 

In summation, there are a couple of ways to ensure that you can draft a team capable of hitting 150+ points each week, even if you don't get a premier QB. Even with an average QB, understanding the standard deviation and average scores of each position can help you find that winning formula. 

Fishing Report for Wheeler/1st Creek 7/3/17

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The 4th of July holiday started early for state workers, who were given Monday off. Many of us .gov folks thought we would get half of the 3rd off. In preparation for that, I brought Big Booty Judy to work, hoping for an afternoon fishing trip with my wife. 

Well, we didn't get half a day. Instead, we were given 59 minutes. I guess any little bit is more than I'd have otherwise. So, we met up at State Park. As I waited for my wife to arrive, I took the boat off the trailer, discovered that my two inflatable life jackets had deployed (yet again). So, Pro Tip: Don't let them get wet nor store them in a damp storage bin. 

So, yeah, started off around $100 in the hole. I dropped the trolling motor and went to fish some nearby grass because, well, I am a froggin' freak. I discovered that my front Humminbird transducer cord was cut and it would short out. That's cool. 

What took the cake was when my wife showed up....and so did the weather. Neither of us had cell service, so we couldn't gauge the weather. I put the boat back on the trailer and we took her car to the State Park lodge to steal....err...borrow some wifi. 

The storm rolled out, so we went back to it. However, I didn't want to go too far as another round of weather looked to be moving in. We stopped by the golf course where I fished the grass, the point, and then the ledge running from the golf course to towards the main river. 

The rain showed back up, but it fired some schoolers up. I managed to catch a couple, but we couldn't get them to hit anything other than a Strike King popping bait. The rain was quite refreshing, however. 

After they stopped schooling, I went to scanning the ledge which dropped down to 22 feet or so. That's when I realized how out of date my 998 is compared to my partners' Lowrance units. Sure, I could clean up the signal a good bit, but man, auto-adjust sure is nice.....

You may recall that we had gone out a few days ago and found a nice ledge that had a lot of bass on it. We had used some techniques from Basswhacker Guide Service. You can read about that trip here. 

The weather eventually laid low for about an hour and we were able to hit the main river and fish some main river points. I really wanted my wife to hook into some smallies. 

We pulled up on one of my favorite points and I immediately caught two on the popping bait before picking up the PowerTeam Lure's pea head and 7" tickler. I have been throwing it exclusively on a 6-6 medium heavy H2O XPRESS Ethos rod. She was using a spinning rod with an Ardent C-Force spinning reel. After I had caught a couple of nice largemouth, I decided to spend more time on boat position and trying to help her. It isn't that she can't use a spinning rod or a shaky head, but she hasn't done it in 20-25 foot depths before. 

She would get lots of bites that she could feel, but couldn't set the hook. Other times, she was missing hits that she didn't even know she was having, but I was watching her rod and the line. So, I took a few minutes to explain some things and how it had led me to abandon spinning reels all together.

First, she was missing hooksets. This was a combination of several things. With the extra amount of line out, the softness of both rod and line, there was simply too much line stretch and give to set the hook properly. The only way she was going to hook into a fish was by reeling all the way down to the water and snatching straight up. Any other angle caused the rod to collapse on itself. 

However, other problems existed still. First, reeling down with a low ratio reel takes too much time, another reason I went to a bait caster with a high ratio (think 5:1 to 6.3:1). Then other times, the smallies would run right at her and catching up to them is impossible. 

Perhaps the most important lesson she learned was knowing not just what a bite feels like, but what feeling nothing means. Too many times I watched the line hop or move on her, but she never even noticed that it was a bite. I had to explain that, at any point, she quit feeling contact with the bottom, it was almost certainly a hit. 

After a few more hits and misses, she set the hook on one. Then, her last lesson of the day was how to play a good smallie on light line. Luckily, we had no trouble netting the fish. The smile on her face at catching this brown fish was worth the trip, alone.

Especially since more weather rolled in about 5 minutes later and forced us to go home early......

In our short hour of fishing, we boated a solid five pound limit around 10 pounds. Water color was slightly dingy and water temps were very high considering the amount of rain. They hovered around 85 degrees. 

Fishing Report for Wheeler/First Creek 6/30/2017

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Man, this time of year can be really, really tough. I don't mean because of the fishing, though that can be super tough, too. I'm talking about the conditions. Maybe I am getting old. Maybe I am getting soft. But I don't deal with the heat as well as I used to! 

Not only was it hot on Friday, but also 100% humidity. You know, that Bama heat. The only relief Brad and I had was due to occasional showers. Still, even that was short lived! Part of that is our own fault. Neither of us could get out early due to, well....life. Having five kids between us means that fishing frequently means that we might have to sacrifice something, such as that early morning bite or perhaps a few pounds of sweat.

But, we are still fortunate to get to fish, even though we haven't been fishing in a month. Ok, ok, that isn't EXACTLY true. Josh and I have fished two Ditto Wildcat tournaments, but I believe we've caught a grand total of five measuring fish between two trips and I can account for just one of those. 

Brad and I have a club tournament coming up in two weeks. In the past, this tournament has been super duper double tough for almost everyone, ourselves included. However, last year we did manage a second place finish, though it was due to a blazing hot weather and a stunted bite. 

We did manage a good sack of fish and salvaged a day, but the truth is we never had a true pattern going into the tournament, something we wanted to change this year. After all, anyone can luck into a bite. Last year it was us. This year it would be someone else. So, if it meant spending an extra week prefishing, so be it. 

You can read about last year's tournament by clicking the link below. 

Fishing Report for Wheeler 8/19/16

We started out in the spot we always start at, which is a collection of main river points. Typically, smallies school early and they are catchable for about 15 minutes really early before they go deep. Of course, we missed that early morning bite, but we did catch that extra hour of active deep bite. There was more bait and top water action from skip jack that I believe I have ever seen, but the bass weren't really relating to the bait, which was moving up and down the river ledge. The bass were relating to cover. 

We were able to catch a small limit (very small) on shaky heads with PowerTeam Lures 7" Ticklers, but after about five straight casts where we both had bites, the point went quiet. We moved to the next point and caught some short fish, but that also died. 

The next thing we wanted to try was the grass bite in Mallard and Fox creek. You may recall that Brad and I won a tournament last time we were on Wheeler a few months ago in Mallard creek. It was kinda fluky in that I caught three of our measuring fish in three casts with 15 minutes on the clock. Still, it was post-spawn and we though maybe, just maybe, those fish still lived there. 

Fishing Report for Wheeler 4/22/2017

Alas, only a few very small fish were found and we moved even deeper into Mallard to fish the grass. Not a bite. That was also what we had found earlier this year. It was kinda weird both times because things looked so good and I had intel that told me that the bite has been solid. Guess I am doing something fundamentally wrong.

The last thing we wanted to do was put some of the intel on scanning that we received from BassWhacker Guide Service. A month ago, he did a refresher course, or maybe a sophomore level class, for us on scanning ledges. We learned a little more about what to look for and where. 

With that in mind, we found a ledge that was holding bass...or at least we THOUGHT they were bass. 

But the first two fish Brad set the hook into were NOT bass. They were drum. 

So, when he set the hook into a THIRD fish in about five casts, I didn't even bother to get the net.....

....until the three pound smallie jumped straight into the air. 

After netting this beautiful smallie, Brad put on a clinic by catching around five largemouth and a smallie. I couldn't' even get a bite. I am going to say that boat positioning was the cause, though it was no fault of Brads. TVA was pushing through some good current and the fish were stacked up such that only Brad could reach them. My bait would fall a few yards short of the ledge and the current would pull it down river.

To fix that, I picked up my AKRods Custom Cranking Rod and threw that Strike King 6XD half a mile. I was rewarded with some small largemouth. 

We decided not to grind those fish too bad in hope that they may be there in two weeks. It was a tough day with two good flurries and a long stretch between. In the end, we boated around 10 fish that would have gone around 10 pounds. 

Product Review for Ardent Flipping Reel

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As you may recall, I have been pleasantly surprised with Ardent's reels. First, I purchased a couple on a group deal about two years ago. We received a hefty discount which made it worth trying a new brand. I have tried a lot of different brands, but Shimano was the only brand that really lived up to my expectations for a baitcaster. 

Even though I bought the Ardents for the price point, they have ranked just below Shimano for quality. I liked them enough to join their prostaff this year. 

I was really excited about this new flipping reel which was designed by the king if flipping, Denny Brauer. You can go directly to Ardent's site and see the product for yourself here. 

Here is the description and the stats:

"The Apex Flipping Reel is the only reel specifically engineered for flipping. Designed by #2 all-time B.A.S.S. Elite money winner and King of Flipping Denny Brauer, its ergonomic frame shape minimizes hand discomfort and maximizes efficiency. Its total reel weight of 5.9 ounces reduces arm and shoulder fatigue, and its thin arbor spool and nose design improve flipping accuracy and eliminate the need for a level wind mechanism. The aluminum frame and carbon fiber handle provide strength with reduced weight. 11 lbs. of drag combined with 10 plus 1 ball bearings and 6.5:1 gearing deliver strong close range retrieves."

High Strength Aluminum frame
Helical Aircraft Aluminum Gear
Carbon Fiber swept back handle
EVA grip knobs on handle
11 lb. Strike Saver Drag System
10+1 High Precision Ball Bearings
Swept back forge aluminum star drag
Weight: 5.9 oz

Pros: 

True to its description, the reel IS very ergonomic. It fits fantastically into your hand and you do no get fatigue. 

The handle design gives you a lot of no-slip, high weight wrenching power. 

I really like the spool design, as it limits just how much line you have to put on the reel. That will save some money, in the end. Additionally, while this reel is the same weight as every other Ardent (a surprise, given that the goal of this reel is to limit weight), having less line on the reel will save SOME weight.

Getting rid of the level wind setup and the smaller "eye" does create a very, very smooth cast. 

It's nice just to have a dedicated flipping reel ready to go. 

Cons:

Not available left-handed. That is a major, major disappointment. As most know, a left handed reel saves valuable time and missed hits during the transfer from right to left hand with a right handed reel. This was a major oversight. 

I really don't understand going with the 6.5:1 ratio. I do understand that the lower ratio provides some durability for the gears and it allows better leverage and wrenching power, but it drastically limits retrieval speed. Retrieval speed is all important in both number of flips and getting the fish out of the cover that you are flipping. Most everyone is using as high as ratio as possible, up to 8:1. Why not just step up the quality of the gears in the reel to deal with the stress of a high ratio?

The reel gets rid of the typical level wind setup and makes way for a smaller spool and larger "eye." Yes, it saves weight (supposedly) but it sacrifices accuracy, even though it is supposed to be more accurate. Because it doesn't have a level wind system, you are forced to "tape off" the line. That is, measure out a cast length and add tape down on the spool. It prevents birds nests, of course, but also the lack of a level wind causes line to pile up. 

Conclusion

This is the first iteration and I hope it isn't the last. The approach is the right approach. Limit the mechanisms, limit the weight, make it as ergonomic as possible. But, Ardent really missed the boat on the truly important things that fishermen will look for: retrieval speed, accuracy, and a left-handed model. I wouldn't pay the MSRP of $169.99 again but I have no problem with the discounted price. Hopefully, the next iteration will fix these oversights. 

Fishing Report for Wheeler/Ditto Landing 6/22/2017

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The struggle.....continues. Man, I guess we are just out of touch with Ditto. Seems like fishing the river has gotten tougher and tougher the last few years. But, to be honest, I only fish it during the Thursday night tournaments and typically ONLY during the hot months of the year. That sure stacks the cards against. Still, back in the day when we ONLY fished the river (for the most part), fishing never seemed that hard. Heck, seemed like we cashed a check every other tournament. 

Maybe I just remember things wrong. Anyway, we had a lot of rain, as you surely know, but the river hadn't quite flooded....yet. That wouldn't happen until Friday. So, Josh and I threw our money on the barrel head (so to speak) and headed down river.

A few weeks ago, we fished the Wildcat and we decided to hit the dam since there was good current (50,000 CFS, if I recall). 

We caught a great fish on the first few casts but were unable to really add to it. We weighed in three fish for around seven pounds. It was just enough for 3rd, but 3rd didn't pay that day.

Conditions were very similar except that the water temp was bit higher than it had been. We decided we would go the opposite route. Instead of fishing current on the river, we would ease way back into Cotaco creek and flip grass. It seemed like the perfect idea, with rising water levels and all. Josh even boated a couple of decent fish flipping while I alternated between a frog and flipping. The bite never turned on and the lone bite I had on the frog came as I was watching white bass school behind me. 

With about 45 minutes to go, we decided we would try our best to fish a couple of old spots on the river channel that had been good to us, especially in high current. These included the pumphouse below Triana creek, the pumphouse by the army docks, as well as the Army/NASA barge area. 

Both of us boated multiple fish from the pump house, but none of them were over 10 inches long. Between buzzbaits, a mixture of cranks, and shakey heads, we could have caught a boat load of short fish, but that's not what we needed.

We ran up to the small pump house. In heavy current, only one fisherman can fish at a time. Josh flipped a shakey head in the eddy and immediately pulled out a solid two pounder. As he wrestled with the fish and the livewell, I made a few casts and pulled out a couple of short fish. Between the low weight shakey head, the wind, and the current, I missed a lot of bites I really shouldn't have missed.

We moved up 100 yards to the cove that houses the docks. We pulled out another keeper and many more shorts. 

In the end, we still didn't have a limit and we were 4th place...one out of the money.

Sad thing is, we weren't that far off the pace. The winning boat was a father and son pair who caught the big fish of the tournament at the docks 5 minutes before weigh in!

At least we caught some fish. Like I said, we could have caught all the 10 inchers we wanted! I joked with the guys that whatever I think we should do....perhaps we should do the opposite. Hopefully we will find out soon. 

Water was really clean in Cotaco, which was interesting. The river was flowing a solid 3 MPH with the 60,000 CFS flow and had a little stain to it. Water temps had dipped to the high 70s. 

College Fantasy Football's Best Teammate Double-Ups for 2017

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It's almost time, yall. Fantasy football is about to gear up. Wait. That's not right. It's already here and if you haven't started your pre-draft work, then you are behind. 

It's cool. I got you. 

Up first is one of my favorite fantasy football topics: Teammate Double Ups. 

What is a Teammate Double Up? It's when you draft and play a QB and a WR (or TE, RB, etc). Why would you do that? Well, there is certainly some risk involved. Obviously staking your future on teammates can backfire on you. A struggle by one is a struggle by both. But, there are undeniable upsides. 

Take a look at just what one play can do for you. Let's say you had Clemson's Watson/Leggett combo, which is one of my top picks from last year. Clemson and Leggett formed perhaps the best QB/TE pair in the country. On just one play, the two hooked up for a 56 yard bomb. 

Let's do some math. 56 passing yards is 2.8 points for Watson, the touchdown is 4 points for Watson. Leggett cashes in for a point for the reception, 5.6 points in receiving yards and another 6 for the TD. All together, that play is worth 19.4 points, and that's on the low end of scoring systems. In other systems, that could have been worth almost 25 points. More importantly, these two teamed up for a combined 226.4 points over the course of the season. That's solid numbers for anyone, but amazing production for a QB/TE combination. 

Now, imagine the production between, say, MTSU's Stockstill and James. Try a combined 493 points. That's right. You could expect a weekly 9- 125-1 performance between the two or an astounding 38 combined points per week. Considering that it takes around 120 points (depending on your league layout) to be competitive, two players have a guaranteed third of your needed production to win week to week.

So, take a look at my picks from last year.I hit some very, very good combos. And the Stockstill/James combo is one I held back for myself. 

It's 2017. Let's talk turkey. 

Believe it or not, the SEC has three very legitimate combos. 

Brent Stockstill/Richie James- We talked about what they did last year. It is highly unlikely they could repeat this performance of 105-1625-12. Keep in mind that the two chipped in 580 rushing yards and 4 more rushing TDs. The Blue Raiders have to break in three new offensive linemen and they do it against Vandy in week one. That isn't exactly the defense you'd want to face the first week. But, hey, it's gonna happen in Conference USA. 

Drew Locke/J'Mon Moore- This is an easy one, really. Locke threw for over 250 yards in all but three contest last season including five performances of over 300 yards. In all, Locke threw for 3400 yards, though his touchdown to INT ratio wasn't great. Still, 62 passes and over 1,000 of those yards went to Moore, who put  8 of those passes into the endzone. The Tigers from Columbia have one of the easier SEC schedules and also play Missouri State, Idaho, Purdue, and UConn. Auburn and UGA are the only legitimate threats to slow down the Tigers. Most importantly, the offensive line that allowed just one sack per game is completely back.

Mason Rudolph/James Washington- This is an absolute no-brainer. 71-1380-10 on the year between the two. Soft defensive conference. The issue? These are likely early first round and early third round picks. 

Jalen Hurts/Calvin Ridley- There is a lot of talk about Hurts retaining his status as the Tide's starting QB, an astounding statement to the Bama program considering this is the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. First, I am going to say that I don't believe he was THAT good as a game winning QB. But, I am willing to say that, not only will he be the Tide's starter in 2017, he will be a great fantasy QB. Calvin Ridley was a bit of a disappointment last year. I do believe in the sophomore slump, which is why I exercised SOME caution. Still, he was 72-77-7, which were solid WR2 numbers, despite having a lot of production stolen by Hurts' running and All-World OJ Howard at TE. Ridley will easily be the dominate playmaker outside of Hurts and I say that because of the crowded (and talented) backfield. Bama is stacked on the offensive line and, outside of the opener against FSU (Saban is 100% in these openers and is winning BIG, BTW), Alabama will sleep walk into November. I'm not saying these two will win you the league. I am saying these are two pieces to get you to the playoff.  

Nick Fitzgerald/Donald Gray-Fitzgerald was an amazing out-of-nowhere surprise as he put up 105 rushing yards per game. When he wasn't scampering for the 3rd best QB rushing numbers, he was hitting Gray to the tune of 41-709-5. Now, I recognize those numbers aren't astounding, but bear with me. First, Fitzgerald is a run-first QB (though he will undoubtedly come along this year as a passer under Mullen). You get double the points from Fitz rushing, as it is. Mississippi State losses Fred Ross, who was Fitz's Go-To guy. Listing these guys is a projection of Fitz's rushing and Gray stepping up as a pass catcher. There are going to be games that are scary, pretty much every SEC West game and even the contest at UGA. State also losses the entire offensive line. So, let's not be too Bull-ish on these guys. 

Lamar Jackson/Jaylen Smith- Like the above combo, this is less about combined production and more about piggybacking. Lamar Jackson was unstoppable...until the playoffs. That's a story for another day. Obviously Jackson was a complete threat to score points at will. Someone has to catch some of those and Smith is coming off a 27-600-6 campaign where he was the team leader (and a national leader) in yards per catch despite playing behind two NFL talents of Quick/Hikutini. Could a surprise WR step up? Sure. But this is a combo where you are going to get Jackson in the first round and you can draft Smith much, much later as a flyer that could pay big dividends. One other thing I am projecting is that the offensive line couldn't be worse and Jackson undoubtedly wants to progress as a passer for his NFL legitimacy. 

Trace McSorely/Mike Gesicki/Saquon Barkley/DaeSean Hamilton- Own The Team? Maybe. It's been an interesting ride for DaeSean Hamilton. He has seen his targets drop each and every year after 82-900-2 as a freshman. His numbers were nearly cut in half in 2015 and he saw even last last season as he went 34-506-1. However, that doesn't tell the whole story. Chris Godwin exploded for the Nittany Lions with the rise of McSorely before Godwin went to Tampa Bay. Gesicki also exploded on the scene for 48-680-5 as a tight end and Barkley kicked in 28-400-4. Under it all, Hamilton's pass catching efficiency went up significantly, though he is far from an elite fantasy talent. Penn State returns four of five linemen who allowed 1.7 sacks per game. That number should be better, especially since Iowa represents the sole challenge for them until a tough four game stretch against Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State. Now, I'm not telling you to draft all Penn State players, but at least consider it. Both McSorely and Barkley are obvious targets. Gesicki is a top returning tight end and Hamilton could be a great late round flyer. 

Logan Woodside/Cody Thompson/Jon'Vea Johnson-104-2,000-20 . What else do you need to know? How about three of five linemen from a unit that allowed a little over one sack per game and Miami as the only Power Five team on the schedule? The only worry is that Kareem Hunt and his 1400 yards are gone and that may cause defenses to game plan around the passing game. In the end, this was the 7th ranked offense in the country. It's fair to say these guys are must-owns, especially considering their value as a package instead of individual value. 

Zach's Sneaky Picks

Will Grier/Ka'Raun White- There is nothing. Nothing. I LOVE more than a Dana Holgorsen Team Mate Double-Up. While the Mountaineers are known to choke in crunch time, they are also deadly when they are favored.West Virginia didn't score a ton of points last year (50th), but they were still 17th in total offense behind Skylar Howard. Will Grier SHOULD be eligible week one and I truly believe he will be a perfect match with Holgorsen. Grier was 1200-10-3 in his short stint at Florida before being suspended for PEDs. He also took a whooping 13 sacks in those games while adding 2 rushing TDs. He was on the cusp of being very, very good. White is entering the fall as the WR1, by default, after going 48-580-5 last year as WVU's No. 3 man. If one were smart, one could get RB Justin Crawford early and sit back for these two guys. 

Baker Mayfield/Mark Andrews- Mayfield isn't going passed pick 10. Get used to that idea. While the Sooners are absolutely loaded on the offensive line, there was a mass exodus of skill positions. In fact, tight end Andrews is the leading returning receiver after a 31-490-7 year. Someone will surely step up for new head coach Lincoln Riley, but can you afford to draft them? Andrews is a solid late pick as a TE1. The two of them together will have some great success on the field. You might as well cash in. 

Quinton Flowers/D'Ernest Johnson- Flowers is another one that isn't sneaking anywhere, but Johnson may. Gone is Marlon Mack and Johnson is in line to take over the lead back role, though Flowers led the team in rushing yards (1,500). Flowers is another QB who may be eyeing the NFL, making Johnson the beneficiary of a lot more touches. Johnson as a RB1 or RB2 may be a stretch, but his utility as a pass catcher make him very, very valuable FLEX play at the very least. He put up solid reception totals of 28-300-5 last season which expands his career totals to 62-750-10. He is a major threat in the passing game as it is and he added 550 yards and 8 TDs on the ground as a backup runner. The Bulls have to replace two linemen but play a joke of a schedule. They are poised to repeat as one of the very best offenses in the country. 

Arion Worthman/Tim McVey- This one is a BIT of a stretch, but hear me out. Not everyone can get studs at all positions. Sometimes you have to settle. Let me give you one rock-solid way to settle. Worthman played about a third of the year last season for Air Force. He passed for 546 yards and 4 TDs while tossing 2 INTs. He also added 670 yards and 6 more TDs on the ground. Again, keep in mind that was as a part time starter. McVey is an established runner who had 708 yards and 10 TDs. The amazing thing is, he averaged a whopping 7 yards per carry despite not having a long over 40 yards. That's stunning. It means this guy is as rock solid a runner as you are going to find. He did it behind Nate Romine, who led a balanced attack and three other departed runners who had more carries. Both of these guys could have stellar years and are terrific late options. If they are used strategically, they could be excellent, especially against lesser opponents. 

Nick Stevens/Michael Gallup- Few QBs finished the year as solid as Stevens. Despite missing the first half of the season riding the pine after being 2nd Team All-Mountain in 2015, Stevens responded in a big way. He threw at least two touchdowns in every game to end the season including an astounding NINE in the last two games of the season. So take that Fair-to-Midland 1936-19-5 stat and flush it cause that was HALF a season. Gallup finished with 76-1200-14, an elite season. Check this, though. Until Stevens entered the lineup against Boise State in week 7, Gallup had 25 total catches and just three TDs with just one game over 100 yards. Gallup erupted down the stretch with Stevens commanding the offense. 51 catches and 11 TDs later, it is fair to say the combo became elite. The lowest output for the tandem? 4-91-1. That's 28 points....on their bad day. The Rams do have to retool the offensive line a bit and they have Alabama on September 16th. Still, Mike Bobo has this program on the rise.