Best5Zach's Best 5 SEC Games of Week 1 Pick'em

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First off, have you joined my ESPN Pick'em league? No? You should. It's free, easy, and a cheap way to get praised by your favorite blogger to hate. Read up on this post.

Best5Zach's ESPN College Pick'em

I know that the season is still some weeks away but...

...I JUST CAN'T HELP MYSELF

Let's pick 5 SEC games in Week 1 and break them down. 

UNC at South Carolina- This is the most intriguing game on the docket, I believe. This is a Thursday night matchup that features a borderwar. The last time these two teams met, USC won 27-10.... on a Thursday night. These two teams are more similar than different. Despite having one of the better offenses in college football and certainly one of its more electrifying players at QB, the UNC defense was one of the very worst and it spelled disaster in 2014. Fedora fires Koenning and hires Chizik, one of the best, and sneakiest, hires in the off season. But, is there enough talent to make this defense click? 

Most of the potent offense returns including QB Williams. South Carolina was also terrible at defense, firing and hiring at the DC position. The offense is going to be a question mark outside of Wilds and Cooper. But, hey, it's Spurrier, right? Not so fast. Cooper aside, Spurrier doesn't have elite pieces anywhere else on the offensive side of the ball, and though Cooper can do everything, he can't do it every time. UNC wins a massive upset game. 

North Carolina

Louisville at Auburn*- The line opened up pretty wide, favoring the Tigers. Petrino will almost certainly enter this game with his best foot forward, a scary thing. He is one of the very few coaches that you want to give an entire off season to prepare. The Cards will be missing DeVante Parker, a stud. Radcliff came on strong late in the season at running back, but the Cards simply aren't going to be a running team, especially with a retooled offensive line. The defense was amazing last year, one of the very best. They ranked #6 in total offense, despite playing in the score-happy ACC. Many people suspected a drop off in defensive production because of the losses to graduation and the NFL. Instead, Grantham went out and brought in some transfers that are studs including former TCU stud Devonte Fields and UGA standout Josh Harvey-Clemons. This is going to be a very good unit. 

Many predict the Auburn offense to be one of the very best while the defense simply must be better than the previous unit. What can you expect on offense?  I think facing a 3-4 defense is going to present a huge struggle for the Tigers and Jeremy Johnson. In order to win, the line is going to have to block into the second level. They simply cannot allow the front 3 to fight them to a stalemate. Auburn must be able to exploit matchups on the linebackers against the linebackers and/or nickleback. That may mean moving Duke Williams into a shallow slot role or even a 3rd in-line receiver. At a minimum, another receiver has to emerge outside of Williams and Louis. Who will that be? Whoever this is will have a career day. Defensively, I believe the Tigers will be fine. Petrino is going to have to pass to win. Auburn's secondary play will be solid and while the score may look tight at halftime, expect the defense to explode in the second half. 

Auburn

Alabama vs Wisconsin*- Alabama has been fortunate to play teams that aren't quite what they were when the contract was signed to play. Michigan, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia have all been shells of their former selves when they played against Alabama. Meanwhile, Alabama has more or less been the same team we saw the year before. That isn't to say that Alabama has shined in their openers, because they really haven't. It took a career day for Christian Jones in 2013 to beat Tech and a sloppy game to close out West Virginia. Wisconsin, on the other hand, lost another head coach in the off season, hiring Paul Chryst. Wisconsin lost the majority of it's offensive line and one has to wonder if the previous coaching staff could recruit and develop as well as Bielema. My thinking is, no. The Wisconsin defense was stout on paper, but they played a soft schedule that included beating Nebraska, one of the only teams they played, who had one of the very worst game plans I have ever seen. Questions at quarterback loom large. Corey Clement is a good back. But he isn't Ball, White, or Gordon. 

Alabama will hand the ball off to Henry all game and take a few shots down field, which I expect to connect. The defense rolls. This will be a laugher of a game. 

Alabama

Arizona State at Texas A&M*- One of the best moves, fantasy wise, I have seen is the move of DJ Foster to WR due to the newfound talent at tailback. Bercovici started 3 games last year and beat Stanford and USC. Outside of these two and the emerging play of RB Richard, what will ASU look like on offense? Defensively, they were "meh." They do get almost the entire unit of "meh" back, however. Take that how you like it. TAMU looks to be great on offense with the very best WR core in the SEC, as I wrote about for TrackEmTigers.com. You can read that post here. The defense received a huge coaching boost with Chavis, who created an instantaneous impact in recruiting by landing some whales. He already has one of the very best pass rushers in the game. The only chance ASU has is by getting Foster the ball in space over 30 times, something he isn't build for. The Aggies role.

Texas A&M 

Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt- Vanderbilt has nearly no chance in the SEC, and it remains to be seen if they will be favored in a single game, especially after this one. Doughty is one of the best gun slingers in the game and he has a plethora of weapons. Though Vanderbilt's better unit is their defense, I don't know if they can expect to stop an offense that averaged 44 points a game. On the flip side, WKU had perhaps the worst defense in college football. That's probably ok for this game, as Vandy has no offense to speak of. I know WKU will score a lot of points. If they get even a single turnover on defense, they will win. Mason may be out of a job by October. 

Western Kentucky

*Neutral site game

Best5Zach's ESPN College Pick'em

You can find links to all of my Auburn Realist Blog posts here.The Auburn Realist: OverviewFollow me on Facebook, YouTube,  and Twitter!

Are you looking for a free weekly pick'em game? Look no further. Join me and many of my friends and blog subscribers in our yearly Pick'em group, Wild Wild SEC West. It's free. It's easy. And, it's something to do each week when you are recovering from the previous wild weekend in the SEC. 

As a BONUS, each weekly winner will be featured in my weekly Best Games of the SEC pick'em posts. So, if you want to be gratified, sign up and win. What can be better than having Best5Zach grovel at your picking prowess? Just ask my wife! It's pretty nice! There may even be a special prize for the winner. 

Anyway, follow this link: Wild Wild SEC West

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Best5Zach's Bears and Bulls: Quarterbacks

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The Auburn Realist: Overview

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One of the most overlooked aspects of fantasy football is the ability to make high value trades that gain equity to you while reducing the value of you opponents. In a typical NFL fantasy league, the only trades that swing wildly in favor of one player or another are those where an injury happens post-trade. That is, the value of the players on each side is known and trades are done less for over-all point value but to cover for week-to-week holes in a lineup.

One thing that sets college fantasy apart from the NFL is that there is real gains to be made on opponents via trade. It is very similar to the stock market. There are top talents that you should keep. Then, there are some players that reach their potential early but falter late. Conversely, there are players on your opponent's roster that haven't achieved their maximum value. While drafting and roster management is key to winning a league, the damage is double when you out-duel players in your league for equity adding trades. 

There are many ways to do this, but we will only cover one in this post. We are going to cover some quarterbacks that are going to come out of the gate extremely hot, but are destined to become mid-level scorers within a few weeks of the start of the season. We are going to have these guys on our rosters for one reason: trade bait. That's right. We are going to buy cheap and sell high. 

Thomas Sirk (Duke)- Sirk is the man to replace Anthony Boone. Boone was a terrific two-year starter for Cutcliffe, having brought Duke back to some form of relevancy. It is unknown whether Sirk is going to develop into the passer that people need to win a league, but here is what we do know: He was the short yardage QB last year, having averaged over 50 yards per carry (2nd on team in average) and 8 TDs (team best). In relief duty, he threw for 10-for-14 passing for 3 TDs. The Blue Devil's open up at Tulane then have North Carolina Central and Northwestern at home before entering conference play. What's the best way to let a mobile QB get comfortable as a starter? Let him run first and pass second. These will be 3 perfect games for him to do just that. Expect some great fantasy value. Then hock him. Why? The Blue Devils won't be the team they have been and they play some tough road games. Ultimately, he will plane off. But, not before you sell him high. 

Nate Sudfeld (Indiana)- Sudfield has thrown for 4,300 yards and 34 TDs in his career as a Hoosier. He probably won't be on anyone's fantasy radar considering that he missed over half of 2014.  Indiana fell to 120th in passing.  Meanwhile, Tevin Coleman ran all over everyone on his way the NFL. Indiana returns 4 of 6 linemen (including TE). Though Coleman is gone, Howard arrives from UAB, but I imagine he will be eased into the games. So, early in the year Indiana plays Southern Illinios, FIU, Western Kentucky, and Wake Forrest before a brutal onslaught. Expect Sudfield to have some really good games early, but he will really struggle starting October 3rd against Ohio State. Sell September 21st. 

Brandon Allen (Arkansas)- No other SEC team plays as soft a first 3 games as the Hogs. But, they still play in the SEC West. Expect Allen to have a field day for the first 3 games throwing the ball as Bielema will try his best to keep Collins and Williams fresh. Sure, they are still going to have a great run game early, but he would be a fool to let these guys run for 200 yards per game before entering SEC competition. The senior undoubtedly would like to come out of the shadows. UTEP, Toledo, and Texas Tech are 3 games were he could throw the rock around. 

Jacoby Brissett (NC State)- This guy has had some moments, but he really didn't have any monster fantasy games in 2014. Take out the overtime gave against FSU and he had a really tough stretch against ACC opponents. I expect him to improve a full TD against non-conference opponents early in the year before setting in to a typical type stretch when ACC play begins. I expect him to exit week 4 with 12 TDs tossed and another 3 on the ground. He is also a high volume thrower that just didn't connect early in the year. He should have a monster first 4 games. Sell before Louisville. 

Caleb Rowe (Maryland)- So word is that this kid has an arm. He has the targets. The line is bigger and better. They have no run game.  That's going to be awesome against Richmond, Bowling Green, and MAYBE against South Florida and West Virginia. But, they play a loaded back end schedule. Hock October 1st. 

What about guys that may struggle early but turn into terrific values? Maybe a guy that an opponent drafted, but has sat on the bench from poor performance early in the season? 

Zach Terrell (Western Michigan)-3,400 yards and 26 TDs for 68% on his way to being the 6th most efficient QB in the country in 2014. The offense was in the top 3rd in college football. Not too bad, eh? It's too bad that the Broncos have to actually play someone this year. The Broncos get Michigan State the very first game of the season and back it up 3 weeks later with Ohio State. Though we may sandwich 2 decent weeks in there, some players may be ready to hock him. You need to be there to scoop up this guy. He has 8 other returning starters with him including all of his playmakers. Down the stretch, this is a guy who could win you a league despite being a poor performer in the first 4 weeks. 

Fishing Report for Wheeler 7/30/15

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Read about all of my Fishing Adventures!

Follow my Fish of 2015

Follow my Fish of 2014

After our last outing at the Ditto Landing Wildcat two weeks ago, both Josh and I were pretty bummed. We had gotten used to losing, but it seemed that we were consistently making the wrong decisions. We went to the dam and the winning bags were caught  down river. We went downriver and the winning bags came from the dam. You can read about our last few trips here:

Fishing Report for Wheeler Lake 7/16/15

Fishing Report for Wheeler Lake 7/9/15

We did manage to catch some fish, but it came from doing some things we hadn't done in years: junk fishing. 

As we have strive to become better tournament fishermen, we have tried to use logic to dictate where we would go and what we would do. We tried to focus on doing things that the average fishermen won't do....focus on off-shore structure and current breaks. However, it simply hasn't worked this year. Instead, what was working was fishing hard placements, that is, man-made concrete and rock structures, down river. Years ago, we would really concentrate on these type things and fish fairly shallow, which is how the average fishermen fish. And, though we dedicated only about 30 minutes to it, we did manage to catch a few fish. That was a far cry from what we had experienced trying to fish off shore. 

Last week, I didn't text Josh and he didn't text me about fishing. Neither one of us were interested in getting smoked.

But, after having dinner Wednesday night (and winning trivia!) we decided that we would employ what we had learned....go back to junk fishing. 

At blast off, we were one of only two boats that headed down river. Our first stop was a rip rap bank that extends about 100 yards. It has a very nice ledge and features a large dock and little-used ramp. It has always been good for a fish or two. Again, not a place you want to pound for 3 hours, but one you can fish for 15 minutes and catch a few fish before moving on.

I bagged a fish on a Sammy within the first few casts, but we didn't have any more bites until we entered the final 20 yards of bank. Josh has spied a group of fish sitting on a rock pile in 15 feet of water just off the dock. He cast behind the boat and caught a short fish. 

We moved further down river to the NASA barge docks. Nothing on the rip rap other than a few rock fish that snagged us. 

We moved up the bank to fish the extreme end of the rip rap. On the end of the rip rap was a laydown that has been there for years. I have frequently caught fish off the edges of it, but I have (until this year) been uncomfortable in flipping into it. 

Josh was at the front of the boat, so he had the first cast in to the tree. He felt a bite, set the hook, and the 1-ounce tungsten flew so closed to my head that the line actually stuck between my ear and head. 

Ok. Missed one fish. So what. 

I was flipping a PTL 7" Tickler on a Triple X Pea head on 10-pound line with my spinning reel. I worked the bait over some limbs and felt a fish pick it up. I waited until the line began to move and I snapped the hook. The fish came out from under the limb, opened its mouth, and let the bait go. It was a solid 2 pound fish....the type you need to win this 3 hour tournament. 

Again, no big deal. Everyone misses fish. 

As I was thread the Tickler back on the Triple X Pea head, Josh set the hook into another fish. He worked it around to the other side of the boat. It was another 2 pound fish. As he started to boat swing it, the fish opened its mouth and the bait came flying out. 

As he retied, I made another cast. 

Another fish picked it up. I waited. And waited. And waited. 

I set the hook and the hook up seemed solid. The fish came to the boat, made a jump, and tossed the bait. 

In 2.5 minutes, we had quality bites that would have netted us around 7 pounds. You can see the video above. 

We decided to give the spot a rest and made a run further down river. We stopped at another hard placement, this one a pump house. Josh proceeded to catch 6-7 fish, though only 2 of them measured. In the meantime, I managed to break off and proceed to pout.

We headed back up river and stopped at a mouth of one of the creeks because Josh had marked a ton of bait that was being stalked by several suspicious looking arches. 

On his first cast, a nice keeper slammed his crankbait right at the boat. On my next cast, I bagged a keeper on the tickler on a magnum shaky head. 

Magnum Shaky Heads: The Answer to Finesse Fishing in High Wind and Current

Now we had 4. 

We had around 30 minutes to fish so we tried the lay down.

First cast, I flipped up a keeper. We had a limit. But, a small 5-6 pound limit. Last week's winning bag was 18 pounds...so....yeah.

We ran back for weigh in. Winning bag was 11 pounds. Big fish was a 4.50 smallie. 2nd place was 6 pounds. We had one of only 2 limits. That landed us in 3rd.

But, it was hard to ignore the fact that we had enough bites to get 2nd instead of 3rd. Who knows? Maybe one of those misses was a 4 pounder? Maybe we could have won it.

It isn't the first time this year we haven't fished clean. In fact, we have done an amazing job of getting in position to win, but missed the bites. I think back to the Wilson tournament a few weeks ago.

Fishing Report for Wilson 7/17/15

We are finding the fish and getting the bites. Now if we can just get them in the boat. 

What Can Auburn Expect from Byron Cowart: A Scouting Report

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Byron Cowart became the highest ranked recruit in Auburn's modern recruiting history, capping off a push by the last three Auburn coaching staffs to crest the hill into "elite" recruiting territory that is typically reserved from landing a top recruit. 

Many of you have read my past articles on my own blog, and know that I am typically skeptical of the modern age of recruiting. Games aren't won and lost by stars. They are won by the recruits that are sometimes overshadowed by their rankings, who can be coached, and who fit a system. Sometimes I think that even the coaches fall victim to the recruiting services, recruiting players for a mythical NSD Championship instead of recruiting another, less highly ranked, kid who fits the system. 

While Nick Saban has revolutionized the art of recruiting and it's hard to deny his prowess in churning out lots of wins and NFL-picks, it hasn't directly translated NSD championships to National Championships. If that were the cast, he would have six or seven rings to show for his efforts. 

Instead, there are plenty of Five-Star busts who never achieve their goals or live up to their lofty billing. And, there are plenty of Three-Stars that win National Championships and go on to NFL careers. It's interesting to note that there wasn't a single Five-Star recruit on either of the NFL teams represented in the last Super Bowl. Just think about that for a second.

But, if you want to win, you do need the best players you can get, who can be coached, and who fits your particular system. But how do they stand up to those mythical rankings?

Don't misunderstand. I am not a professional scout. Aside from playing high school ball, getting whipped in flag football every fall by college kids, and watching my TV, that's really the extent of my qualifications. So, read this post and try not to roll your eyes and think "This guy." 

One of my habits in the off-season has been to watch video on these recruits. While it helps me pick out exactly for whom to wait in line at A-Day for an autograph, it is also educational and prepares me expectations. 

As we noted, Cowart is the highest ranked recruit in Auburn history and he will probably hold that ranking for some time. As an Auburn fan (or a rival fan?), some of you are undoubtedly satisfied that, based upon his high school ranking and priority within the coaching staff, that this guy is an immediate impact player and future star. But some of you may not be sold.  Some of you may be skeptic. Many of you are interested in exactly what Auburn is getting. I'd like to weigh in on the topic. 

Check in Friday morning on Track'EmTigers-Auburn's Oldest and Most Respected Blog to read about it! 

Using Quality Factors in Your Pre-Draft Statistical Analysis

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The Auburn Realist: Overview

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Best5Zach's Best 5 QBs for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Receivers for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Running Backs for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Tight Ends for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 DSTs for 2015

Why You Should Be Playing Fantasy College Football

While reading some publications, I stumbled upon their fantasy rankings. Usually these magazines list about 20-25 different athletes per position. The top 5 are usually pretty easy to pick. Look at the RB position, for instance. Ezekiel Elliot and Nick Chubb are easy picks. They are the elite backs who are going to churn out yardage regardless of who is returning on offense, what style of offense is going to be fielded, and who they play. 

But, the rest of the backs are typically ranked on their future projections based upon past experience. Again, that's probably fine for the top 10 backs out there. But, what after that? 

We have a 20 man league which means that a minimum of 40 backs will be taken on any given day. To be more realistic, most people are going to carry 4 backs on their roster to account for bye weeks and FLEX play. So. 80 backs. Once you get past that first 10-20....how do you judge their future performance?

That was the question that I kept asking myself. Every year we see the same things. There are the sure-fire backs that come off the board starting in the second round. Then there is a slew of backs that averaged about 15 points per game the year before. Then, there are all the potential breakout stars. Make no mistake, if you want to win a league, you will have to have a big time player. But, realistically, leagues are won from consistency. 

Great backs can put up 30 or 40 points per game. But, they can have the box stacked against them. They can be sat in cupcake games. You need those guys that have a low floor and high ceiling each and every week. And, having that guy that scores a minimum of 15 points each and every week is going to win you a lot of weeks. And, really, that's the trick. You want a high seed going into your tournament play. Specifically, you want that bye week where you can really tweak that lineup. 

Initially, it seemed so random which guys thrive and which ones just disappear. Who would build on last years scores? Who would be one-hit-wonders?  Some guys get a steady number of limited carries each game. Some had big games early but disappeared. Some did the opposite.  Some guys had huge inflated scores based on a few big games that put them up in the standings. I wanted stability. But, getting those backs...and you need 2 or 3 of them....can be very difficult. Just like I said earlier, most people draft these guys by past performance. That is, simply on the total points that the player scored the year before. And, I paid attention to the scoring system.

So, I decided that I would try and apply some logic to the situation. 

I began months ago by finding players that offered me the most versatility. These are the kind of guys that are going to get their touches regardless of who they play and where. My typical back may only get 15 carries from the backfield, but he is going to add 5 catches. He may also return kickoffs. Sure, it's nice to have a back like Derrick Henry who is going to get 30 carries in a game. But, you have to consider what happens when LSU stacks the box or Saban sits him. 

I then paid attention to how many games they played and how many touches they got per game. I don't want to see a roller coaster ride. 

Doing this got me pretty far. But, how did I rank the rest?

  

Using Fantrax, who we use for our league, I downloaded the top 200 returning players per position. Obviously there are really only 2 positions you need that many players....WR and RB. 

Using their rankings, I reorganized using an adjusted score that emphasized touches instead of just points. After all, last year they might have broken 10 TDs of 60 yards or more which gives them a really high total point score that isn't representative of their real worth from year to year. 

I thought of a series of parameters that would help me score each individual back. To me, the important things to consider were things like:

• Coaching system- Was the current coaching regime a veteran unit? Was it a drastic change in philosophy? 
• Offensive system- In the case of running backs, did the current system benefit them? I.E. is this an air raid attack where the back is just getting TDs from vulture carries? 
• Are they a multi-threat? 
• Strength of Schedule
• Returning Offensive line

I assigned each of these different parameters a point value and input them into a custom formula which would then rank each player based upon what I call a "Quality Factor." That is, taking their past performance and bouncing it against a quality factor that gives me a true representation of what I can expect from the other factors surrounding the player. 

Then I sorted the players. I am not going to give everything away, but I just want to prove a point. 

Based upon Fantrax, here are the 20-25 ranked running backs who are returning. You see their names and teams, their bye weeks, and their total points scored in 2014. 

20 Perkins, Paul (Jr) - UCLA	6,14	228
21 Lasco II, Daniel (Sr) - Cal	7,14	218
22 Linwood, Shock (Jr) - Bayl	3,9	215
23 Taylor, Anthone (Sr) - Buff	6,14	215
24 Gordon, Michael (Sr) - ArkSt	6,12	203
25 Waller, Marteze (Sr) - Fres	9,14	203

But, if I resort based upon my quality factors, we find that these guys have shifted a good bit.

Perkins is now ranked as the 9th best RB. How does he go from 20 to 9? Well, he has a majority of his offensive line returning, as does his coaching staff. He gets an offensive system bonus because he will be the offensive feature behind a freshman QB. He offers a lot of stability from his ability to catch the ball. The only knock is the relatively hard strength of schedule, but it's the PAC-12 and that can be debatable. Again, now that I type that, it may make sense to you. But, it was awfully easy just to look at my spreadsheet. 

Lasco drops to 24. Linwood up to 18. Taylor all the way down to 38. Gordon to 26 (about the same) and Waller to 30. 

Again, why the big moves from some guys? 

Taylor plays on a team with a high turnover on the offensive line. The coaching staff has been in transit. The offense has been balanced.

Waller only returns parts of his line. The offense isn't geared for him. He isn't a multi-threat. The strength of schedule doesn't benefit him. The only pro he has is that his coaching staff returns. 

But, that's just where the fun starts! Though I did this to separate the mid-level guys, I applied this to the top 40 returning backs and I was amazed at what the formula told me. 

Connor, from Pitt, is the top returning scorer, but my formula knocked him down significantly...all the way to 15! The biggest move was Perine, who was the #2 scorer who checked in at 28. 

That's important info, considering that we are talking about two guys that scored over 300 fantasy points. Is it worth drafting these guys super early if you can swoop in and get 2 (or 3!) of these other mid-level backs, for whom the formula says they will consistently produce.

But, lets be real. Running backs may fluctuate from 300 points to 270, and that really won't win or lose anything. Receivers, however, are the biggest boom-or-bust players on your roster. 

Here is the 20-25th ranked receivers with bye weeks, total points, and per game average:

Sharp, Hunter (Sr) - UtSt	4,14	154	11.85
Braverman, Daniel (Jr) - WestMI	5,14	149	11.46
Williams, Mike (Jr) - Clem	4,14	148	12.33
Morgan, Teldrick (Jr) - NMSt	4,11	148	13.45
Dangerfield, Jared (Sr) - W Ky	11,14	144	11.08
Robinson, Demarcus (Jr) - Fla	8,14	144	13.09

If I rank these guys using a modified-for-receivers formula that takes QBs into account, here is what we see. 

Here is the new 20-25: 

Payton, Jordan (Sr) - UCLA	6,14	141
Williams, D'haquille (Sr) - Aub	6,14	109
Treadwell, Laquon (Jr) - Miss	11,14	92
Higgins, Rashard (Jr) - ColSt	8,14	343
Shepard, Sterling (Sr) - Okla	4,14	162
Morgan, Teldrick (Jr) - NMSt	4,11	148

Interesting. Higgins was the top WR in 2014. Why is he so far down? Well, he lost his offensive-minded coach as well as his QB (to the NFL, no less). 

Treadwell and Williams vault into the Top 25. Both WOULD be higher if it weren't for competitions for catches. Williams, in particular, also will play on a balanced offense. 

Where did the previous 20-25 go? 

Sharp drops to 24. Braverman up to 20. Williams up to 9. Morgan to 25. Dangerfield to 21. Robinson to last place! Not a ton of movement for some, but enough to make you take notice. 

Everyone is looking for an edge. Everyone can get the top names off the board, but trophies are won with the mid-round guys. Can you sort them? I don't think my formula is perfect, but it's very telling. 

If you want more info, comment below! 

Why Jeremy Johnson Doesn't Have to Run and Why We Shouldn't Care That He Won't

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Has anyone else noticed the amount of articles being posted on social media pertaining to Jeremy Johnson and his running/lack of running ability? I have. And it's getting pretty old and played out. 

People say he can. People say he can't. People say he should. People say he shouldn't. And, Gus and Jeremy sometimes weigh in on the subject. 

I'm hear to tell you that his ability to run...or not run...doesn't really matter. 

The comparisons to a one Cam Newton began before Johnson was ever on campus. There are some similarities. Namely, the overall size of each of these men is very similar. And, both can chunk the ball a very very long way. But, to be perfectly honest, that's about the limits of the comparisons, in my eyes. 

Jeremy Johnson is already on par to college-age Cam Newton in his throwing ability. Which means he doesn't HAVE to run. Did you raise your eyebrows? 

His ability to throw the ball was well known when he was in high school. He was described by many people, Gus Malzahn included, as having a real-deal NFL arm. In his limited action in his first two years, he has shown that he has the gift. Not only does he have the ability to make all the throws, but he has the brains to make the decisions on exactly which throw he should make. Of his 2 INTs he has tossed, I recall one being a WR at fault. I can't recall the other. As a sophomore, he was nearly perfect in his limited action. 

In this year's A-Day game, Johnson was nearly flawless in his over-all execution. The only flaws I saw in his game was a particular series in which he was locked on to Duke Williams. He missed Duke on the sidelines on one throw and shorted another dig route that nearly found the ball going the other way. But, after that one series, Johnson opened up his playbook and began making some fairly unbelievable reads. He checked down into the flats. He threw a wheel route to a fullback. He looked a safety off and completed a perfect pass for a TD to Myron Burton. He avoided a sack, stepped up into the pocket, and fired a 50 yarder to Louis. 

And that's where the difference's between Cam and Jeremy really start to glare. Don't get me wrong. Cam was almost perfect all year in 2010 throwing the ball, especially down the stretch. But, anyone who understands the game will tell you that his arm wasn't the only thing completing those passes. Defenses were more terrified of his (and Dyer's) ability to run it down their throat than they were scared of his ability to beat them in the short game throwing. So, why did Cam end up with 30 TD passes? Well, the defenses stacked the box. Cam ran play action passes. And then he threw it as far as he could to a (usually) wide open receiver. However, Cam struggled making reads and finesse passes. Never was it more evident than those early games. But, again, it quickly became evident that he didn't have to. Bear Bryant made one of the most astute observations of the game when he said that "3 things happen when you pass and two of them are bad." Why throw it short when you can run it? To sum it up, Cam was perhaps the greatest running quarterback in modern football history. Yes, Tebow owns a lot of records and all, but Cam churned out the greatest single-season road grate that any of us will ever see. He was, by all definitions, unstoppable. 

Can Johnson run it? Sure. There have been some leaks that Johnson runs a 4.49 50 yard dash. Doubtful, but I am sure he close. Can he run the zone read? Well, yea. He has undoubtedly practiced it for the 2 years he has been on the Plains. And, honestly, it doesn't matter how fast you are when you are that big. If you make the right read, a 6'6" guy can fall forward at the line of scrimmage for 3 yards. I'm not great with math, but that's pretty good. 

The other thing that many pundits are considering is how the offense was run with Nick Marshall. The nimble-footed Marshall was more like Cam than most people will ever admit. The difference is that the handoffs went outside for Cam as opposed to inside with Nick. Cam was a battering ram that took 3 defenders to tackle and a long stride that was nearly impossible to match. Nick was elusive around the edge, but just as fast. He might go down with the first defender, but that defender had to catch him, which was usually a tall order....especially in the backfield. Marshall and Cam were more alike in the throwing game than anyone will ever admit, as well. Both could throw the ball as far as it needed to be thrown. Both struggled at times to check it down. Both had issues with fitting the ball into windows in the short game. But, both these quarterbacks took Auburn to National Championships and lit up the stat sheets and scoreboards.  

Which is why everyone immediately assumes that for Auburn to have success, JJ must be able to run.  If he doesn't, the Gus Bus will derail. 

False. 

Though Malzahn's offenses at Auburn have been mostly top-level offenses, we sometimes forget that the offenses that put him on the map were not true dual-threat QBs. They were polished passers who didn't have to run. And, the overall offenses weren't just spread offenses that didn't have a run game. 

Chris Todd set several Auburn records with his single year under Malzahn at Auburn.

Paul Smith, under Malzahn in 2007, threw for 5,000 yards and 47 TDs in a season! He ran for under 200 yards.

David Johnson, while at Tulsa in 2008, threw for over 4,000 yards and 46 TDs while running for less than 200 yards. 

Ryan Applin, with Gus at Arkansas State for a single season, threw for 3,300 yards and 24 TDs against a VERY tough schedule. He ran for 430 yards. 

And yet, each of these offenses had something you wouldn't believe. They featured a running back with at least 1,000 yards. In fact, his two offenses at Tulsa featured one back who ran for 2,700 yards in those two seasons. 

Seems to me that maybe the assumptions that are being made might be a tad over-inflated. Seems to me that we are trying to fit Gus' offense into our idea of an offense instead of letting him mold his own. In fact, there is a lot more truth to that than you might think. Marshall and Netwon were elite athletes....and that's a word I don't throw around lightly. Both were players that had a wide skill set and that he didn't have enough time to mold into his own ideal quarterback. They were the exception and not the rule. So, he fit an offense around them that would work for the time he had. And, he did a fantastic job. Up next is Johnson and we make all of these assumptions. He has to do this like Cam. He has to do that like Marshall.

As much as I love Cam and Nick, both struggled with check downs. Both were off and running when the edge blitz came. And, it's amazing that both of them lasted whole seasons (though it's worth noting that Cam was hurt in the National Championship game and Nick Marshall missed extensive time). Why? Because they were run-first. 

There is another critical aspect of the game many people forget. Auburn frequently ran to run the clock...not just to score. Both the 2013 and 2014 defense were some of the worst defenses fielded on the Plains. The 2010 wasn't exactly a dominating unit, either. The same can be said for every stop that Gus Malzahn has made. That will change in 2015, it would seem. Gus won't ...err....shouldn't....have to worry about clock management anymore. Scoring will be his primary purpose. And, that means a lot of throws. 

Johnson doesn't have to run. And, he probably won't, at least not to the level that we saw with the two aforementioned QBs. And Auburn is going to win a lot of games, anyway. Why? Because Johnson is a true pocket passer and even a casual observation of his in-game play will show that. Just as I said earlier, he has all the tools. He looks off the secondary. He checks down. He uses the whole field. He steps up into the pocket and delivers the ball. And, most importantly, he is scary accurate. 

So, I just laugh when I see these comparisons to the two great Auburn QBs. Who really cares if he can run the zone read when he can throw the ball 30 times a game and go 22-30 for 350, and 3 TDs? Really? Let's not forget that Auburn has one of the most talented and high-potential backfields anywhere in the country. I firmly believe that Roc Thomas will take the place of the traditional QB in the zone read. Instead of making JJ run the ball, he has two potential reads...inside to a Barber/Robinson or outside to Thomas. I wrote earlier about how I think the offense will evolve even further with these talented backs.

The Battle in Auburn's Backfield: Who is the Real Winner

Sure, it puts the offense at a slight numbers disadvantage in terms of "helmet on helmet" numbers, but so does losing your QB when you need him most. Let's not forget that Auburn has always had a capable backup on those good offenses who was a veteran (Burns with Todd, Caudell with Newton, Johnson with Marshall). Auburn doesn't really have that this year. 

Johnson also has the most potential at the WR core than any previous QB has had at Auburn under Malzahn. It's going to allow him the ability to spread the ball and create mismatches, which hasn't been possible at Auburn since 2004. That is , of course, the WRs live up to their potential. 

Upon Further Review: Auburn's Understated Need a WR

To sum up, Johnson has a very talented backfield, top to bottom as well as a high-potential WR corp. Though White looks like he will be a solid QB in the future, he is pretty new and untested. Running the ball with your QB, regardless of the talent and ability, is risky.  Malzahn won't have to run the ball to manage the clock. If Muschamp does what we all think he will, Malzahn will have the luxury of being able to throw it 30 times a game without worrying about time management or 3-and-outs. Lastly, Johnson is already a more polished passer than either of the run-first QBs that Auburn has found success with (Newton/Marshall) and his game film already proves that. Now, can he do it a whole season? That remains to be seen. But, when I look at all of these bits of information, I see a QB that doesn't have to...and shouldn't...run the ball. It isn't his strength and the offensive game plan shouldn't need it. So, can we stop with all the questions about his ability to run, already? If I didn't know any better, I would think the media called the plays, not Gus.