Best5Zach's Week 2 SEC Picks

The Auburn Realist: Overview

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In case you missed it, go brush up on last week's picks. 

So, I didn't get the South Carolina vs North Carolina pick. I blame William's and his two INTs in the endzone. I can say that it doesn't surprise me to see that the Tarheel's struggled. It's a right of passage for converted run-first QBs to be forced to throw instead of doing what comes naturally. From a fantasy perspective, I said that it would suprise me for him to struggle for that reason. Indeed he did. It was maddening to see Williams force bad throws over and over instead of running or checking down to Switzer. Speaking of Switzer, it appears he is still gunshy about returning punts, as can be seen from his 1 return for -1 yards. 

I expected Western Kentucky to blow past the 'Dores, at least on offense. Instead, it was a struggle, but the Hilltoppers won, as I expected. 

Texas A&M covered the spread, as expected.  This was a good game, but TAMU was all over them most of the day. 

Alabama smoked Wisconsin as predicted. Bama usually doesn't cover spreads against Top 25 teams. They did Saturday, and no one should have been surprised.

What was surprising was Jeremy Johnson's inexplicable performance. Sure, we expected the Cards to be a VERY good defense. I expected contested balls and sacks. I didn't expect Johnson to throw it right to the defenders. 

Anyway, I ended the day 4 for 5, even against the spread. Time to move on.

Oklahoma at Tennessee- Talk across the SEC has been about this week 2 matchup, as it is THE litmus test for the Vols. While the Sooners can take a loss and be just fine, Tennessee must have this game if they want to get to the eight plus win mark. Vegas has this as a pick 'em game. The Vols didn't look like a 10-win team against lowly Bowling Green. While they did eventually pull away, it was a game at half time. Unfortunately, there wasn't much to learn from the Vols on Saturday, other than the defense may not quite be as good as advertised....yet. They gave up 10 points in each of the first three quarters of this game. The Sooners were unimpressive on offense, struggling to put just a field goal in the first and last quarters against Akron.  The defense looked solid, however. This one is hard to gauge. What we do know is that Perine was held to just 11 total rushes against the Zips. That pretty much answers the Sooner's game plan. Not only will the rushing attack neutralize the Vols vaunted front line pass rush, but  keep an eye on Mixon, who could bust the game open. Though the Vols have a good rushing attack, the Sooner's run game is better.  The Sooner's Shepard is also back and healthy. He is a mismatch against the Vols secondary.Akron may not be a very good team, but the Sooners defense looked awfully good. They allowed only two plays over 20 yards.  I'll take the Sooners. 

Kentucky at South Carolina-The Gamecocks limped out of Charlotte with a win, but they should have lost this game. The defense is better than last year's version. The offense isn't nearly as good. Kentucky looked....ugly. They couldn't punch it in several times against UL-Lafayette. They missed extra points. They squandered a three TD lead. They were tied with 57 seconds left to play. Vegas has the Gamecocks favored by 7.5 points. Recall that the Wildcats pulled this one off last year in Lexington. If the Wildcats want any chance to win, they will have to get Boom William's some space to run. That means Towles has to be able to scramble and make above-average throws....something he has struggled with. Ultimately, the Gamecocks roll. South Carolina and the points. 

LSU at Mississippi State-This game, last year, was the coming out party for Prescott. He took this game on his shoulders, making some crucial runs. This year will be extremely similar because the line isn't as good as 2014 nor does he have an NFL-caliber running back to draw attention away from him. But, I believe the Bulldogs are going to be better when Prescott is featured as a run-first player. Who knows what we have with the LSU Tigers? The worst thing that could have happened to the Tigers was skipping the warm up game against McNeese State. Whoever trots out at QB is going to be in a tough spot. With a fan base eager to atone for last year's meltdown, expect more record crowds and cow bells. It certainly affected opponents last year, specifically Auburn. A sub-par QB in a hostile environment for the first game of the season sounds like a disaster. It doesn't matter to me that State returns the fewest starters in the SEC. Recall that the number of returners may be small, but the average quality of players is higher than past years. This is the year of fruition for Mullen.  if a game MUST be won and it comes down to one of the QBs, I would take Prescott. I do expect this to be an ugly game. LSU is favored by 4. I am taking the Dogs. 

Best5Zach's Week 1 SEC Picks

You can find links to all of my Auburn Realist Blog posts here.

The Auburn Realist: Overview

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Hard to believe that game week is finally here! Time to make make picks!

South Carolina at North Carolina-  It's worth mentioning that the underdog visitor wins the majority of Thursday night games. The Gamecocks are holding on to a 2.5 point line, which means this game is a special team play away from a Tarheel win. Switzer had 5 punt returns for TDs as a freshman in 2013 before having none is a sophomore slump. Marquis Williams has a 65% completion ratio at home. He had 21 passing TDs and 9 INTs in 2014 while rushing for 788 yards and 13 more TDs. If he makes any strides as a passer, he could have a breakout game on Thursday night. The Tarheels have been among the very worst on defense, but they made a giant hire with former Auburn DC and head coach Chizik. All he has to do is cut down one TD to make this a very good team. South Carolina has been very quiet aside from some Spurrier one-liners. Aside from P Cooper, there seems to be a lack of playmakers on offense. The same can be said about the defense, which was dreadful in 2014, especially against the pass. I'll take North Carolina. 

Vandy vs Western Kentucky-Doughty put up 4,830 yards and 49 TDs in 2014. When playing as a visitor, he has a significantly lower completion percentage of 62%. He threw all 10 INTs in away games in 2014. He has an 80% completion percentage in season openers in the last two years with no interceptions. Vandy was near the very bottom with 13 total takeaways and sacks in 2013 with a group that returns 9 players. While the Western Kentucky defense isn't any better, the match up heavily favors WKU in all cases. Vandy opened as a slim favorite but late movement has them as 2 point dogs. I'll take the Hilltoppers and the points. 

Texas A&M vs Arizona State- Many would say that one of these teams is going to make a major statement by winning this game. I'd say that one team will prove they aren't what we thought they were. You can throw out any and all defensive stats from TAMU. Though pundits believe the Chavis hire was over-hyped, one can't discount that all these Sumlin teams were 1 touchdown from being 12-win teams, if only their defense could have made a stop. The secondary is going to continue to be a mess, but TAMU is going to be much improved in the front 7. TAMU only returns 10 starters on both sides of the ball, but keep in mind that the over-all talent level of the new starters will be higher than previous years. TAMU is going to have an incredible offense, especially in the beginning of the year before teams can watch film. TAMU has the best group of WRs in the country. They may not be as flashy as Baylor's group, but they are more physical. Arizona State returns 9 starters on a defense that was 103rd against the pass and 81st overall. That's cause for concern in and of itself. On the flip said, Becovici takes over as the starter after filling in admirably in 2014. In his 4 starts away from home, he has been slightly worse in completion percentage, but he has thrown more TDs and less INTs away from Sun Devil stadium. Some moves in the off-season sent versatile DJ Foster to WR, which could be a move to watch in fantasy land, but in this game for sure. DJ is the kind of guy who can take quick passes to negate the front seven on defense and torch the TAMU secondary. Indeed, Foster catches more passes in away games as he does in home games, making him the perfect safety net for Bercovici. TAMU is a 3-point favorite in Houston. While the Aggie defense won't be whatever everyone thinks it will be, it will be better than previous units. Additionally, the Aggie offense will be markedly better than it's mid and late-season form (think: SCAR game last year). On the flipside, I do think that ASU will put up a lot of points and Foster will have a career day. But, the Sun Devil D is just.....bad. I'll take Texas A&M and the points. 

Alabama vs Wisconsin-Though the question at who will start for Bama at QB has been the reoccurring story all throughout the off-season, my question that pertains to this game is how will the coaching turnover (3 in 4 years) affect a program that was the embodiment of stability. Paul Chryst has been to a lot of places in recent years where he has had to mold a game plan around existing players. This year will be no different. Stave was dreadful in the Outback bowl and one has to wonder how long of a leash he will have in 2015. Away from home, he has thrown 3 TDs and 7 INTs. 3 of those in neutral site games (all 3 against Auburn).  Unlike the Big 10, running the ball 60 times a game won't work against Alabama, unless you are Auburn. Alabama was 5th best in the nation against the run. Keep in mind that this Wisconsin line has been rebuilt over last year's unit. On the flipside, Alabama has potentially the best front seven in all of college and Saban's tenure. I don't but that quite yet considering that the line wasn't as productive in 2014 as many would think. Alabama's soft spot is the secondary, which won't be an issue against the Badgers who don't have a QB and don't have a returning premier deep threat, which has been the bane of the Saban secondary. While some off-site openers have been closer than they should, Saban hasn't lost one yet. The Badgers blew a massive lead to a very similar LSU team last year. The line has held steady around Alabama -10. I'll take Alabama and the points. 

Auburn vs Louisville- I called the Bill King show this morning to weigh in on this game. I am honestly concerned about this game as I wrote about on TrackEmTigers. Nobody brought in better defensive talent than Grantham and the Louisville staff. They are absolutely stacked and looking to repeat the INT and sack-happy defense of 2014.  They were especially good early in the year before closing out the year ranked 11th in the country. What concerns me the most is the 3-4 system and the affect on Auburn's first-time starting center, whoever that may be. Unlike a 4-3, he will now be hit every play from the 0 or 1 technique. Auburn has held steady as a 10-point favorite. That sounds about right, but the margin of error will be razor thin. Don't be surprised it this game is knotted up at half time thanks to a bad snap and 3 sacks. On the other side of the ball, there are few coaches in college that scare me when given all this time to prepare. Petrino is one such coach. Though a starter at QB hasn't been named, multiple RBs graduated, and Parker off the NFL, don't sleep on the Cards offense. Additionally, Muschamp may be the biggest hire of the year, but don't be surprised to see old faces playing their old games early. While I appreciate the work McKinzy and Frost have put in, ultimately I don't think they are the best fits and might be phased out. I'll take Auburn straight up for the win

Systems You Can Trust: Drafting First-Time Starters Based on Systems

You can find links to all of my Auburn Realist Blog posts here.The Auburn Realist: OverviewFollow me on Facebook, YouTube,  and Twitter!

Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Quarterbacks for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Running Backs for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 DSTs for Fantasy College Football

Best5Zach's Best 5 Tight Ends for 2015

Face the facts: You can't always draft based upon last year's stats. Not only does past performance fail to dictate future worth, but the nature of college football means that there is a lot of turnover year to year, unlike the NFL. I saw it just the other day in my first fantasy draft of 2015. There were some very.....questionable...draft picks that were made based upon last year's fantasy value. But, what amazed me most were the picks that were NOT made. 

In the later rounds, especially, when there are the most value-oriented gains to be made, I was able to draft players that shouldn't have been on the board. Take a read and see if you can spot the players. 

Best5Zach's First Draft of College Fantasy Football 

That made me think: maybe people don't understand the value of drafting a player based upon the system he plays in. My first example is Auburn's Jeremy Johnson. I don't think there is any doubt that Johnson is going to be one of the SEC's, and maybe the NCAA's, very best QBs. And yet, he will available in the 12th round? Sure, as an Auburn fan, I knew who he was and had seem him play. I know the system under which he plays. But, he isn't the only guy I drafted based upon that. So, let's take a look at some systems you can trust to draft a first year starter or potential break-out player. 

Quarterback: Auburn's Gus Malzhan hasn't struggled to put out fantasy monsters. It didn't matter if it was a major or minor program, either.  Tulsa and Arkansas State enjoyed high-power offenses that set the bar. Only in 2011 at Auburn did he have a legitimate issue in producing a QB that could light it up. But, there were some significant issues that most any fantasy guy could see, namely the lack of talent at the position and near zero career starts for the offensive line. 

Dana Holgerson's Mountainers are one of the very best first half of the season's offense.  In my 5 years of playing fantasy college football, he has turned each and every QB into a legitimate fantasy starter, despite the QBs different abilities. But, just as he is trust-worthy in the first half to produce big numbers, he also is good for a late season meltdown. 

Obviously any Urban Meyer QB makes the list, as it was evident in last years season when three different guys put up video game numbers.

Art Briles has translated the high-tempo high school offense to the big stage. Although some high volume, big stat teams from smaller conferences (AAC, Sunbelt) may struggled against premier competition, the Briles system succeeds even on the big stage. His last two QBs have been among the very best fantasy options. Whoever takes over as a first time starter will surely be in the top 20 as well. 

Honorable mentions to Washington State and Texas Tech. My issue with them is that the air raid attack means big yardage, but the point swings week to week are wild. 60 attempts mean lots of yardage, but against better competition it rarely means more TDs and it certainly means more INTs. Use these systems at your own risk. 

What about a fantasy scoring system that handicaps throwing TDs? No problem. Look no further than Georgia Tech and Navy. It doesn't matter who is at QB, these two teams are going to run the ball. Georgia Tech was the No. 1 rushing team in America. While Navy's Reynolds had more rushing TDs than any QB, Tech's Thomas added a throwing dimension that Reynolds lacked. 

Running Back: No other coach in America can openly admit that he is going to pound the rock each and every week and actually go through with it more than Brett Bielema and the Arkansas Razorbacks. As long as he is coaching, you can safely pick up his lead back or backs. There isn't a team in America aside from his time in Wisconsin where you could draft two different backs from the same team and safely assume that you are going to get fantasy-worthy stats. Are you going to get 30 or more points? No. But the chances of you getting less than 20 are virtually non-existent. Winning a league is about consistency. 

Additionally, Alabama is a team with a ton of consistency at running back. You can trust Saban to pound the rock.  Though total yardage may not always be favorable, you can expect great field position and running inside the ten yard line. What's not to like? 

Bob Davie has been at New Mexico for three years. Each year, he has had a running back go for over 1,000 and a secondary back with over 700. In each of those years, the newcomer usually had a 500 yard performance the year before. This team averages over 3,000 yards rushing each year and over six yards per carry. It doesn't matter who they play and if they lose, they are as stead as you will find. 

Michigan State is going to have a potent pro-style system that will be fairly balanced. But Dantonio, like Saban, really likes to run the ball when it comes down to it. The run sets up the pass in his system and the system hasn't been player dependent. Whoever the No. 1 guy is, he is going to rush for 1,500 yards. It's awfully hard on passing up an MSU back. 

Receiver: No program in America produces top fantasy WRs, regardless of coaching, than USC. Even at the end of the Kiffin era, when the offense seemed to sputter, USC still had at least one WR that was a top producer. The nature of the talent pool in southern California means that USC will always have an NFL prospect playing. Even when the QBs struggle, the coaching staff will still get the ball in whomever that lead WR is. 

Big Game Bob Stoops always has a lead WR that is going to get a plethora of catches. Whether it is a pesky slot slot receiver or a down-field bully, the nature of his high-powered offense means there will be one major beneficiary at WR. What I REALLY like about his offense is that there is always one WR that stands above the rest in terms of over-all touches. While his offense will spread the ball to as many as seven different players per game, one guy will have double the touches of anyone else.

On the other end of the spectrum, you can draft two receivers from Baylor with little to no worry about competition for touches. The Baylor offense is already one of the very best annually. While five different receivers having 30 or more catches concerns some potential fantasy owners, understand that even the 4th best receiver had over 600 yards and 6 TDs. To put that in perspective, Auburn's Duke Williams is projected to be one of the very best WRs in fantasy land, yet he had 700 yards and 5 TDs. 

Mike Leech's air raid offense is going to translate to 60 attempts and around 35-40 completions per game. Most notably, it will involved seven or eight different guys. You can reasonably expect three different receivers to have 7 or more TDs a year. In a PPR league, up to five different guys are worth owning, especially against inferior competition. You will have a minimum of 40 catches. The only issue is, against Pac-12 opponents, who do you start? The WRs are very streaky. But, guessing right each week means big payouts. 

DST: Despite playing in the wide-open Mountain West, Utah State consistently has one of the very best overall DSTs in fantasy land.Yet, the average draft position is past 100. This is a unit that has finished in the top 12 over the last 3 years (And as high as 5th). With a consistent crop of talent and stable coaching, this unit will perennially be among the best. Not only are they a fantastic defensive unit, but the special teams can explode on anyone and at any time. It is hard to believe that they are such a high value sleeper each year. 

It's hard to overlook Michigan State. They have been at the top for a very long time. Though they aren't as likely to score defensive TDs as Utah State, they are hard-nosed, sack heavy, and don't give up points. 

Alabama is very similar to the Michigan State. If you play in a league the scores heavily on points allowed, this is your team. But, the Tide was one of the very worst in terms of turnovers and touchdowns. Again, it's hard to argue against this unit as it is as stable as there is. 

Best5Zach's First Draft of College Fantasy Football

You can find links to all of my Auburn Realist Blog posts here.

The Auburn Realist: Overview

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Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Quarterbacks for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Running Backs for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 DSTs for Fantasy College Football

Best5Zach's Best 5 Tight Ends for 2015

I decided to participate in a free 10 man league. The draft just started.

I am pick #9 and we have a snake draft, so I will be pick #2 in the 2nd round. I noticed right before the draft that the scoring system is 4 points for a passing TD and 6 for a rushing, putting a major benefit on rushing QBs.  As expected, Boykin is the first off the board with the first pick. I immediately think about drafting Doctson early, as I can handcuff the opponent with Boykin.

Lots of autodrafts follow, which I laugh about. Prescott, Clement, Fournette and Adams (transfer to Oregon) are already gone.

Doughty picked #6....interesting. Not saying I wouldn't have done it, but at least one other person isn't autodrafting.

James Connor drafted. I had moved him down. That's a really high position. When I applied my quality factors, it moved him down substantially.

Using Quality Factors in Your Pre-Draft Statistical Analysis

Devon Johnson next. He was high on average draft position. Ugh. Someone will get a stud. Unfortunately, he won't be listed as a tight end this year. And, he doesn't have a great passing game around him. He could struggle.

I get Keenan Reynolds, the running QB for Navy. This is exactly who I wanted. I have a guy that I know is going to run the ball a lot. He had 10 more rushing TDs than any returning QB.

I back that up with Marquis Wilson from UNC who had 13 rushing touchdowns of his own. This is purely a market value guy that I plan to sell. He has a ton of value for throwing the ball, too.

I will have to make a decision now, based upon how everyone else drafts. Do I want bag a throwing QB with a top reciever or go after running backs?

Samaje Perine and Ezekiel Elliot come off the board followed by Texas Tech QB hopeful Mahomes.

Someone takes Taysome Hill. I almost took him in the 2nd round.

Derrick Henry comes off.

Deshaun Watson drafted and we start the 3rd round.

Jarvion Franklin drafted. Dangit. I was hoping to get him this round. It's clear that RBs are going to come off the board early.

Coleman is the first WR off the board. (Cannon went soon afterwards)

McGuire and Booker are two solid backs that are taken. I am really going to struggle if the 5 picks in front of me go to RBs.

Keevan Lucas WR from Tulsa? Interesting. I am wondering if this guy is going to try and steal Dane Evans late. (Evans did end up going very late)

I get Dixon from La Tech. He was a guy that I brought up based upon the quality factor matrix I had put together. He is fantastic catching the ball out of the backfield.

I went ahead and took DJ Foster, the WR who moved from RB with Arizona State. He could be a game breaker as he will take handoffs. I will have to snag a RB next round.

Pharoah Cooper finally gets picked up as does Boyd from Pitt. Cox from Appalachian State is a highly rated guy that I had questions about, but he gets picked anyway.

Duke Willams and Higgins, the two best NFL type receivers, finally get picked up. Here comes another round of WRs.

Next, I make a very risky pick and take UAB transfer to Indiana Howard. Again, a risky play. But, Coleman was a top rusher last year and he is in the NFL now. The line, coach, and system are still in place. Howard was solid at UAB. He is a big dude.

I back that up with another fairly risky play and take Michael Thomas, WR from Ohio State. The way I figure it, whoever plays QB can't throw to Devon Smith anymore. So, I snap him up.

Now is when it gets tough. Everyone is digging. Do you take the next man up at the big point positions or do you start taking the best at kicker/DST/TE?

It would appear the later as several of each come off the board. I am waiting for Duke's TE Deaver, who missed all of last year but was a stud the year before. Two straight DSTs come off the board. Michigan State and TCU. I have a long way to go before I am back up.

Although I had moved him down the boards a good bit, I couldn't pass Matt Breida up when the time came. If he had any of last year's line coming back, I would have taken him a lot sooner. But, he was still there and I do believe in him. Plus, Deaver isn't even rated, so no risk of autodraft.

I had to take another WR and Mike Williams from Clemson was still available. With Watson's ability, I think he is going to get a heavy work load.

Amazingly, there are some real quality QBs still on the board.

At the last second, I couldn't pull the trigger on Deaver because I think i can get him really late. Instead, I took Jovon Robinson from Auburn...couldn't help it. He was just sitting there. While he hasn't been named the starter, most of us believe he will be.

The Battle in Auburn's Backfield: Who is the Real Winner

And, I took Sharp, the WR from Utah State that has done me a solid in the last few years.

Time limit was shifted to 1 minute and I couldn't fit Gordon Micheal from Ark State in time. So, I had to go ahead and take Deaver. I am glad to have Deaver but I want either Lasco or Gordon. I moved some things around so I can fit them next round.

I went ahead and took Jeremy Johnson in the 12th round. Why he is still there, I don't know. But, I had to take him. I may try and trade off someone to get Duke. I understand that the scoring system is wack and benefits running QBs, specifically TDs. But, he will get his.

I have to take a DST and a Kicker, so I go ahead and take Utah State. Not only are they always one of the best defenses, but they have Natson, an explosive returner.

Daniel Carlson (Auburn) is on the board. I take him.

Now, I have two more spots. I cannot have any more QBs or RBs.

I have to choose between Wilson (Miss St) or Reynolds (TAMU) as I think they are the two best guys on the board. Wilson has his ups and downs, but Reynolds has been a behavioral issue. So, Wilson it is.

I am forced to choose between another TE or DST. As TEs don't add value to a team, I decide on Temple's DST.

After free agency, I moved Thomas (Ohio State) to injured reserve, as he shows up as injured. This alowed me to add another player via free agency. So, I picked up Ryan Switzer from UNC. Though he hasn't been a stat monster, he is a great slot receiver who gets a lot of work. Additionally, he will pair up with Marquis Wilson to give me the teammate double up.

Best5Zach's Best Fantasy College Football Tips: Top 2015 Teammate Double Ups

Here is my current lineup.

	Reynolds, Keenan (Sr) QB - Navy	Act
	Williams, Marquise (Sr) QB - UNC	Act
	Dixon, Kenneth (Sr) RB - LaTec	Act
	Howard, Jordan (Jr) RB - Ind	Act
	Foster, D.J. (Sr) WR - AzSt	Act
	Switzer, Ryan - WR - UNC	Act
	Williams, Mike (Jr) WR - Clem	Act
	Wilson, De'Runnya (Jr) WR - MisSt	Act
	Deaver, Braxton (Sr) TE - Duke	Act
	Carlson, Daniel (So) K - Aub	Act
	Utah State D/ST	Act
	Johnson, Jeremy (Jr) QB - Aub	Res
	Breida, Matt (Jr) RB - GaSo	Res
	Robinson, Jovon (Jr) RB - Aub	Res
	Sharp, Hunter (Sr) WR - UtSt	Res
	Temple D/ST	Res
	Thomas, Michael (Jr) WR - OHSt

Best5Zach's Best 5 SEC Games of Week 1 Pick'em

You can find links to all of my Auburn Realist Blog posts here.

The Auburn Realist: Overview

Follow me on Facebook, YouTube,  and Twitter!

First off, have you joined my ESPN Pick'em league? No? You should. It's free, easy, and a cheap way to get praised by your favorite blogger to hate. Read up on this post.

Best5Zach's ESPN College Pick'em

I know that the season is still some weeks away but...

...I JUST CAN'T HELP MYSELF

Let's pick 5 SEC games in Week 1 and break them down. 

UNC at South Carolina- This is the most intriguing game on the docket, I believe. This is a Thursday night matchup that features a borderwar. The last time these two teams met, USC won 27-10.... on a Thursday night. These two teams are more similar than different. Despite having one of the better offenses in college football and certainly one of its more electrifying players at QB, the UNC defense was one of the very worst and it spelled disaster in 2014. Fedora fires Koenning and hires Chizik, one of the best, and sneakiest, hires in the off season. But, is there enough talent to make this defense click? 

Most of the potent offense returns including QB Williams. South Carolina was also terrible at defense, firing and hiring at the DC position. The offense is going to be a question mark outside of Wilds and Cooper. But, hey, it's Spurrier, right? Not so fast. Cooper aside, Spurrier doesn't have elite pieces anywhere else on the offensive side of the ball, and though Cooper can do everything, he can't do it every time. UNC wins a massive upset game. 

North Carolina

Louisville at Auburn*- The line opened up pretty wide, favoring the Tigers. Petrino will almost certainly enter this game with his best foot forward, a scary thing. He is one of the very few coaches that you want to give an entire off season to prepare. The Cards will be missing DeVante Parker, a stud. Radcliff came on strong late in the season at running back, but the Cards simply aren't going to be a running team, especially with a retooled offensive line. The defense was amazing last year, one of the very best. They ranked #6 in total offense, despite playing in the score-happy ACC. Many people suspected a drop off in defensive production because of the losses to graduation and the NFL. Instead, Grantham went out and brought in some transfers that are studs including former TCU stud Devonte Fields and UGA standout Josh Harvey-Clemons. This is going to be a very good unit. 

Many predict the Auburn offense to be one of the very best while the defense simply must be better than the previous unit. What can you expect on offense?  I think facing a 3-4 defense is going to present a huge struggle for the Tigers and Jeremy Johnson. In order to win, the line is going to have to block into the second level. They simply cannot allow the front 3 to fight them to a stalemate. Auburn must be able to exploit matchups on the linebackers against the linebackers and/or nickleback. That may mean moving Duke Williams into a shallow slot role or even a 3rd in-line receiver. At a minimum, another receiver has to emerge outside of Williams and Louis. Who will that be? Whoever this is will have a career day. Defensively, I believe the Tigers will be fine. Petrino is going to have to pass to win. Auburn's secondary play will be solid and while the score may look tight at halftime, expect the defense to explode in the second half. 

Auburn

Alabama vs Wisconsin*- Alabama has been fortunate to play teams that aren't quite what they were when the contract was signed to play. Michigan, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia have all been shells of their former selves when they played against Alabama. Meanwhile, Alabama has more or less been the same team we saw the year before. That isn't to say that Alabama has shined in their openers, because they really haven't. It took a career day for Christian Jones in 2013 to beat Tech and a sloppy game to close out West Virginia. Wisconsin, on the other hand, lost another head coach in the off season, hiring Paul Chryst. Wisconsin lost the majority of it's offensive line and one has to wonder if the previous coaching staff could recruit and develop as well as Bielema. My thinking is, no. The Wisconsin defense was stout on paper, but they played a soft schedule that included beating Nebraska, one of the only teams they played, who had one of the very worst game plans I have ever seen. Questions at quarterback loom large. Corey Clement is a good back. But he isn't Ball, White, or Gordon. 

Alabama will hand the ball off to Henry all game and take a few shots down field, which I expect to connect. The defense rolls. This will be a laugher of a game. 

Alabama

Arizona State at Texas A&M*- One of the best moves, fantasy wise, I have seen is the move of DJ Foster to WR due to the newfound talent at tailback. Bercovici started 3 games last year and beat Stanford and USC. Outside of these two and the emerging play of RB Richard, what will ASU look like on offense? Defensively, they were "meh." They do get almost the entire unit of "meh" back, however. Take that how you like it. TAMU looks to be great on offense with the very best WR core in the SEC, as I wrote about for TrackEmTigers.com. You can read that post here. The defense received a huge coaching boost with Chavis, who created an instantaneous impact in recruiting by landing some whales. He already has one of the very best pass rushers in the game. The only chance ASU has is by getting Foster the ball in space over 30 times, something he isn't build for. The Aggies role.

Texas A&M 

Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt- Vanderbilt has nearly no chance in the SEC, and it remains to be seen if they will be favored in a single game, especially after this one. Doughty is one of the best gun slingers in the game and he has a plethora of weapons. Though Vanderbilt's better unit is their defense, I don't know if they can expect to stop an offense that averaged 44 points a game. On the flip side, WKU had perhaps the worst defense in college football. That's probably ok for this game, as Vandy has no offense to speak of. I know WKU will score a lot of points. If they get even a single turnover on defense, they will win. Mason may be out of a job by October. 

Western Kentucky

*Neutral site game

Best5Zach's ESPN College Pick'em

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Are you looking for a free weekly pick'em game? Look no further. Join me and many of my friends and blog subscribers in our yearly Pick'em group, Wild Wild SEC West. It's free. It's easy. And, it's something to do each week when you are recovering from the previous wild weekend in the SEC. 

As a BONUS, each weekly winner will be featured in my weekly Best Games of the SEC pick'em posts. So, if you want to be gratified, sign up and win. What can be better than having Best5Zach grovel at your picking prowess? Just ask my wife! It's pretty nice! There may even be a special prize for the winner. 

Anyway, follow this link: Wild Wild SEC West

If that doesn't work, do a quick search for the name or the group ID, which is 1187. Then, drop me a comment below to let me know you are in!  

Best5Zach's Bears and Bulls: Quarterbacks

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One of the most overlooked aspects of fantasy football is the ability to make high value trades that gain equity to you while reducing the value of you opponents. In a typical NFL fantasy league, the only trades that swing wildly in favor of one player or another are those where an injury happens post-trade. That is, the value of the players on each side is known and trades are done less for over-all point value but to cover for week-to-week holes in a lineup.

One thing that sets college fantasy apart from the NFL is that there is real gains to be made on opponents via trade. It is very similar to the stock market. There are top talents that you should keep. Then, there are some players that reach their potential early but falter late. Conversely, there are players on your opponent's roster that haven't achieved their maximum value. While drafting and roster management is key to winning a league, the damage is double when you out-duel players in your league for equity adding trades. 

There are many ways to do this, but we will only cover one in this post. We are going to cover some quarterbacks that are going to come out of the gate extremely hot, but are destined to become mid-level scorers within a few weeks of the start of the season. We are going to have these guys on our rosters for one reason: trade bait. That's right. We are going to buy cheap and sell high. 

Thomas Sirk (Duke)- Sirk is the man to replace Anthony Boone. Boone was a terrific two-year starter for Cutcliffe, having brought Duke back to some form of relevancy. It is unknown whether Sirk is going to develop into the passer that people need to win a league, but here is what we do know: He was the short yardage QB last year, having averaged over 50 yards per carry (2nd on team in average) and 8 TDs (team best). In relief duty, he threw for 10-for-14 passing for 3 TDs. The Blue Devil's open up at Tulane then have North Carolina Central and Northwestern at home before entering conference play. What's the best way to let a mobile QB get comfortable as a starter? Let him run first and pass second. These will be 3 perfect games for him to do just that. Expect some great fantasy value. Then hock him. Why? The Blue Devils won't be the team they have been and they play some tough road games. Ultimately, he will plane off. But, not before you sell him high. 

Nate Sudfeld (Indiana)- Sudfield has thrown for 4,300 yards and 34 TDs in his career as a Hoosier. He probably won't be on anyone's fantasy radar considering that he missed over half of 2014.  Indiana fell to 120th in passing.  Meanwhile, Tevin Coleman ran all over everyone on his way the NFL. Indiana returns 4 of 6 linemen (including TE). Though Coleman is gone, Howard arrives from UAB, but I imagine he will be eased into the games. So, early in the year Indiana plays Southern Illinios, FIU, Western Kentucky, and Wake Forrest before a brutal onslaught. Expect Sudfield to have some really good games early, but he will really struggle starting October 3rd against Ohio State. Sell September 21st. 

Brandon Allen (Arkansas)- No other SEC team plays as soft a first 3 games as the Hogs. But, they still play in the SEC West. Expect Allen to have a field day for the first 3 games throwing the ball as Bielema will try his best to keep Collins and Williams fresh. Sure, they are still going to have a great run game early, but he would be a fool to let these guys run for 200 yards per game before entering SEC competition. The senior undoubtedly would like to come out of the shadows. UTEP, Toledo, and Texas Tech are 3 games were he could throw the rock around. 

Jacoby Brissett (NC State)- This guy has had some moments, but he really didn't have any monster fantasy games in 2014. Take out the overtime gave against FSU and he had a really tough stretch against ACC opponents. I expect him to improve a full TD against non-conference opponents early in the year before setting in to a typical type stretch when ACC play begins. I expect him to exit week 4 with 12 TDs tossed and another 3 on the ground. He is also a high volume thrower that just didn't connect early in the year. He should have a monster first 4 games. Sell before Louisville. 

Caleb Rowe (Maryland)- So word is that this kid has an arm. He has the targets. The line is bigger and better. They have no run game.  That's going to be awesome against Richmond, Bowling Green, and MAYBE against South Florida and West Virginia. But, they play a loaded back end schedule. Hock October 1st. 

What about guys that may struggle early but turn into terrific values? Maybe a guy that an opponent drafted, but has sat on the bench from poor performance early in the season? 

Zach Terrell (Western Michigan)-3,400 yards and 26 TDs for 68% on his way to being the 6th most efficient QB in the country in 2014. The offense was in the top 3rd in college football. Not too bad, eh? It's too bad that the Broncos have to actually play someone this year. The Broncos get Michigan State the very first game of the season and back it up 3 weeks later with Ohio State. Though we may sandwich 2 decent weeks in there, some players may be ready to hock him. You need to be there to scoop up this guy. He has 8 other returning starters with him including all of his playmakers. Down the stretch, this is a guy who could win you a league despite being a poor performer in the first 4 weeks. 

What Can Auburn Expect from Byron Cowart: A Scouting Report

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Byron Cowart became the highest ranked recruit in Auburn's modern recruiting history, capping off a push by the last three Auburn coaching staffs to crest the hill into "elite" recruiting territory that is typically reserved from landing a top recruit. 

Many of you have read my past articles on my own blog, and know that I am typically skeptical of the modern age of recruiting. Games aren't won and lost by stars. They are won by the recruits that are sometimes overshadowed by their rankings, who can be coached, and who fit a system. Sometimes I think that even the coaches fall victim to the recruiting services, recruiting players for a mythical NSD Championship instead of recruiting another, less highly ranked, kid who fits the system. 

While Nick Saban has revolutionized the art of recruiting and it's hard to deny his prowess in churning out lots of wins and NFL-picks, it hasn't directly translated NSD championships to National Championships. If that were the cast, he would have six or seven rings to show for his efforts. 

Instead, there are plenty of Five-Star busts who never achieve their goals or live up to their lofty billing. And, there are plenty of Three-Stars that win National Championships and go on to NFL careers. It's interesting to note that there wasn't a single Five-Star recruit on either of the NFL teams represented in the last Super Bowl. Just think about that for a second.

But, if you want to win, you do need the best players you can get, who can be coached, and who fits your particular system. But how do they stand up to those mythical rankings?

Don't misunderstand. I am not a professional scout. Aside from playing high school ball, getting whipped in flag football every fall by college kids, and watching my TV, that's really the extent of my qualifications. So, read this post and try not to roll your eyes and think "This guy." 

One of my habits in the off-season has been to watch video on these recruits. While it helps me pick out exactly for whom to wait in line at A-Day for an autograph, it is also educational and prepares me expectations. 

As we noted, Cowart is the highest ranked recruit in Auburn history and he will probably hold that ranking for some time. As an Auburn fan (or a rival fan?), some of you are undoubtedly satisfied that, based upon his high school ranking and priority within the coaching staff, that this guy is an immediate impact player and future star. But some of you may not be sold.  Some of you may be skeptic. Many of you are interested in exactly what Auburn is getting. I'd like to weigh in on the topic. 

Check in Friday morning on Track'EmTigers-Auburn's Oldest and Most Respected Blog to read about it! 

Using Quality Factors in Your Pre-Draft Statistical Analysis

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Best5Zach's Best 5 QBs for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Receivers for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Fantasy Running Backs for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 Tight Ends for 2015

Best5Zach's Best 5 DSTs for 2015

Why You Should Be Playing Fantasy College Football

While reading some publications, I stumbled upon their fantasy rankings. Usually these magazines list about 20-25 different athletes per position. The top 5 are usually pretty easy to pick. Look at the RB position, for instance. Ezekiel Elliot and Nick Chubb are easy picks. They are the elite backs who are going to churn out yardage regardless of who is returning on offense, what style of offense is going to be fielded, and who they play. 

But, the rest of the backs are typically ranked on their future projections based upon past experience. Again, that's probably fine for the top 10 backs out there. But, what after that? 

We have a 20 man league which means that a minimum of 40 backs will be taken on any given day. To be more realistic, most people are going to carry 4 backs on their roster to account for bye weeks and FLEX play. So. 80 backs. Once you get past that first 10-20....how do you judge their future performance?

That was the question that I kept asking myself. Every year we see the same things. There are the sure-fire backs that come off the board starting in the second round. Then there is a slew of backs that averaged about 15 points per game the year before. Then, there are all the potential breakout stars. Make no mistake, if you want to win a league, you will have to have a big time player. But, realistically, leagues are won from consistency. 

Great backs can put up 30 or 40 points per game. But, they can have the box stacked against them. They can be sat in cupcake games. You need those guys that have a low floor and high ceiling each and every week. And, having that guy that scores a minimum of 15 points each and every week is going to win you a lot of weeks. And, really, that's the trick. You want a high seed going into your tournament play. Specifically, you want that bye week where you can really tweak that lineup. 

Initially, it seemed so random which guys thrive and which ones just disappear. Who would build on last years scores? Who would be one-hit-wonders?  Some guys get a steady number of limited carries each game. Some had big games early but disappeared. Some did the opposite.  Some guys had huge inflated scores based on a few big games that put them up in the standings. I wanted stability. But, getting those backs...and you need 2 or 3 of them....can be very difficult. Just like I said earlier, most people draft these guys by past performance. That is, simply on the total points that the player scored the year before. And, I paid attention to the scoring system.

So, I decided that I would try and apply some logic to the situation. 

I began months ago by finding players that offered me the most versatility. These are the kind of guys that are going to get their touches regardless of who they play and where. My typical back may only get 15 carries from the backfield, but he is going to add 5 catches. He may also return kickoffs. Sure, it's nice to have a back like Derrick Henry who is going to get 30 carries in a game. But, you have to consider what happens when LSU stacks the box or Saban sits him. 

I then paid attention to how many games they played and how many touches they got per game. I don't want to see a roller coaster ride. 

Doing this got me pretty far. But, how did I rank the rest?

  

Using Fantrax, who we use for our league, I downloaded the top 200 returning players per position. Obviously there are really only 2 positions you need that many players....WR and RB. 

Using their rankings, I reorganized using an adjusted score that emphasized touches instead of just points. After all, last year they might have broken 10 TDs of 60 yards or more which gives them a really high total point score that isn't representative of their real worth from year to year. 

I thought of a series of parameters that would help me score each individual back. To me, the important things to consider were things like:

• Coaching system- Was the current coaching regime a veteran unit? Was it a drastic change in philosophy? 
• Offensive system- In the case of running backs, did the current system benefit them? I.E. is this an air raid attack where the back is just getting TDs from vulture carries? 
• Are they a multi-threat? 
• Strength of Schedule
• Returning Offensive line

I assigned each of these different parameters a point value and input them into a custom formula which would then rank each player based upon what I call a "Quality Factor." That is, taking their past performance and bouncing it against a quality factor that gives me a true representation of what I can expect from the other factors surrounding the player. 

Then I sorted the players. I am not going to give everything away, but I just want to prove a point. 

Based upon Fantrax, here are the 20-25 ranked running backs who are returning. You see their names and teams, their bye weeks, and their total points scored in 2014. 

20 Perkins, Paul (Jr) - UCLA	6,14	228
21 Lasco II, Daniel (Sr) - Cal	7,14	218
22 Linwood, Shock (Jr) - Bayl	3,9	215
23 Taylor, Anthone (Sr) - Buff	6,14	215
24 Gordon, Michael (Sr) - ArkSt	6,12	203
25 Waller, Marteze (Sr) - Fres	9,14	203

But, if I resort based upon my quality factors, we find that these guys have shifted a good bit.

Perkins is now ranked as the 9th best RB. How does he go from 20 to 9? Well, he has a majority of his offensive line returning, as does his coaching staff. He gets an offensive system bonus because he will be the offensive feature behind a freshman QB. He offers a lot of stability from his ability to catch the ball. The only knock is the relatively hard strength of schedule, but it's the PAC-12 and that can be debatable. Again, now that I type that, it may make sense to you. But, it was awfully easy just to look at my spreadsheet. 

Lasco drops to 24. Linwood up to 18. Taylor all the way down to 38. Gordon to 26 (about the same) and Waller to 30. 

Again, why the big moves from some guys? 

Taylor plays on a team with a high turnover on the offensive line. The coaching staff has been in transit. The offense has been balanced.

Waller only returns parts of his line. The offense isn't geared for him. He isn't a multi-threat. The strength of schedule doesn't benefit him. The only pro he has is that his coaching staff returns. 

But, that's just where the fun starts! Though I did this to separate the mid-level guys, I applied this to the top 40 returning backs and I was amazed at what the formula told me. 

Connor, from Pitt, is the top returning scorer, but my formula knocked him down significantly...all the way to 15! The biggest move was Perine, who was the #2 scorer who checked in at 28. 

That's important info, considering that we are talking about two guys that scored over 300 fantasy points. Is it worth drafting these guys super early if you can swoop in and get 2 (or 3!) of these other mid-level backs, for whom the formula says they will consistently produce.

But, lets be real. Running backs may fluctuate from 300 points to 270, and that really won't win or lose anything. Receivers, however, are the biggest boom-or-bust players on your roster. 

Here is the 20-25th ranked receivers with bye weeks, total points, and per game average:

Sharp, Hunter (Sr) - UtSt	4,14	154	11.85
Braverman, Daniel (Jr) - WestMI	5,14	149	11.46
Williams, Mike (Jr) - Clem	4,14	148	12.33
Morgan, Teldrick (Jr) - NMSt	4,11	148	13.45
Dangerfield, Jared (Sr) - W Ky	11,14	144	11.08
Robinson, Demarcus (Jr) - Fla	8,14	144	13.09

If I rank these guys using a modified-for-receivers formula that takes QBs into account, here is what we see. 

Here is the new 20-25: 

Payton, Jordan (Sr) - UCLA	6,14	141
Williams, D'haquille (Sr) - Aub	6,14	109
Treadwell, Laquon (Jr) - Miss	11,14	92
Higgins, Rashard (Jr) - ColSt	8,14	343
Shepard, Sterling (Sr) - Okla	4,14	162
Morgan, Teldrick (Jr) - NMSt	4,11	148

Interesting. Higgins was the top WR in 2014. Why is he so far down? Well, he lost his offensive-minded coach as well as his QB (to the NFL, no less). 

Treadwell and Williams vault into the Top 25. Both WOULD be higher if it weren't for competitions for catches. Williams, in particular, also will play on a balanced offense. 

Where did the previous 20-25 go? 

Sharp drops to 24. Braverman up to 20. Williams up to 9. Morgan to 25. Dangerfield to 21. Robinson to last place! Not a ton of movement for some, but enough to make you take notice. 

Everyone is looking for an edge. Everyone can get the top names off the board, but trophies are won with the mid-round guys. Can you sort them? I don't think my formula is perfect, but it's very telling. 

If you want more info, comment below!