The Auburn Realist: The Arkansas State Preview

So, we just got done wrapping up the Review of the Washington State Game. That was based on my blog post which was, obviously, the Preview of the Washington State Game. Go see how I did.

So, did I learn anything about our team this week that muddies up the crystal ball? Yes. I think we saw a LOT of things. How will it effect us going in to week 2? Let's talk it out. I am giving this post a lot of thought because I truly believe that this could be an upset special.

I think we all know the history here. This team is on it's 4th coach in 4 years, though coming off back to back Sunbelt Championships. They've won 10 games in each of the last 2 years, which is nothing to sneer at, regardless of the league. What did they lose this year from last year? Well, the easy answer is Ryan Aplin, arguably the best QB they have ever had. Obviously, the biggest loss, in my eyes, is Gus Malzahn. The Hugh Freeze to Gus Malzhan transition was a fairly easy one, in my opinion. While the actualy plays and verbage is undoubtedly different, the skill sets needed are very similar, as is the pace. Going from Malzahn to Harsin is a much wider leap.. He definitely has the pedigree however. He was a 2009 Broyles finalist and has coached with Peterson at Boise State and Mack Brown at Texas. But, in my opinion, he never proved himself at either place.


Last week, ASU rolled up 4 100 yard rushers, which was scary close to an NCAA record. The QB, Kennedy, had a 206 rating throwing the rock. They rolled on Arkansas-Pine Bluff big, to the tune of 62-11. But, it was Pine Bluff. While neither are the states premier schools by any stretch, ASU has deep talent that people probably don't consider. Freeze and Malzahn are excellent recruiters...some of the best in the country. And the roster shows it. The center piece is easily David Oku, whom I drafted early in fantasy football. He had pedestrian numbers last week and I think we know why. He is ASU's ONLY chance at an upset tomorrow. He was given 16 carries, averaged nearly 8 yards per, and was say on the bench after a 2 TD performance.

It is easy to think that their QB,  Kennedy, is an unknown quantity, having sat behind Aplin. He only attempted 1 pass in 2012 but was used extensively in 2011 at Utah State. He threw for almost 1,000 yards, 11 TDs to 4 picks at Utah State. Not bad for a kid coming off the bench behind Chuckie Keeton, one of the most Dynamic players in the country. Let's not forget that Utah State plays some stiff competition, so much of those stats weren't "garbage time" stats. They lost 5 games that year. 2 in overtime and 1 to the reigning National Champs...our Auburn Tigers.


And, they have JD McKissicc. While he didn't break out last week, don't expect that to continue. This kid is a play maker out of the slot. See his record performance last year. 1,000 yards. 5 TDs. And, he has something to prove to Auburn, who didn't recruit him at all.

Offensively, the team is built to give Auburn a lot of trouble. The question is, can they go into halftime with  lead? Can Auburn make adjustments?

Ok. That's enough back story. What can we expect?

Defense:
Defensively, I really don't know what to think. As stated by Johnson and Garner, most of the D-Line's woes were because of quick release passes. We won't see as many, but I can guarantee that ASU saw that the Auburn corners had trouble on inside release patterns. And who would they be throwing to? McKissic. And, the REAL problem is...with Holland in the middle, an inside release catch with a quick first step guy like McKissic is dangerous since Holland cannot tackle. Auburn has to force Kennedy to throw deep by taking away the inside releases and the quick bubble screens. Two reasons: it gives the D-line the chance to make an impact and it gives the D-backs the chance to make big plays.

With the combination of Oku running right at him and quick slants coming from both directions, I don't see Holland playing past the 3rd possession.

Speaking of Oku: If they can get him going, this could be a long game for Auburn. The defensive tackles MUST establish themselves behind the line of scrimmage. With Whitaker still hurt, I just don't know if they can. I am going out on a limb and saying that Oku breaks 100 yards. The soft spot of Auburn is the tackles and middle linebacker. That's the wrong place to be soft against a Top 10 RB.

I expect Auburn to give up some passing yards again, mostly to the inside lanes. I think the secondary rules the day again with 2 more picks. I fully expect Therezie to start. I will be sorely disappointed if he doesn't. And I expect him to have another breakout game. The prospect of meeting Oku in the open field much have him drooling. That will be the game breaking moment. Therezie on Oku on the sideline. Who will win? A TD will hang in the balance.

Offense:

I just don't know what to expect here. I was really taken aback last week, for the most part. Grant overperformed and the rest was just boring. Sure, Marshall made some nice plays with his legs. To me, the real question is whether or not the WRs will show us ANYTHING. I am just not impressed with the production of such "talented" receivers. The hands were loose. The routes were sloppy. The effort was low. ASU isn't built on defense like they are on offense. If things click this week, the sky is the limit, statistically. We also expect Tony Stevens to make his debut at receiver.It's the perfect storm for the young man. If he produces, he could find himself sitting real pretty. I still think they are overhyped and they underwork, and while they may come down with a deep pass this week...it's only because they will know it's coming and make effort.

The run game will be solid. I expect CAP to get those 20 carries. Simply because I feel that the staff has loyalty to Mason and wants to "keep him healthy" for the SEC showdown next weekend. In the meantime, CAP roles up the yardage. I know I know...I said the same thing last week. Call me stubborn. 100 yards for CAP and a TD.

I guess I should think that Grant has another big game. Based on how it shook out in 2009, the next 2 games will be big for him. 5 touches, 125 yards and a TD sounds about right.

I am on the fence on what to expect out of Marshall. I think the ground game will be good enough to keep him from having to run. He might have a designed play or two, but I don't think he will run for over 100 yards or anything. But, if I am wrong about anything,.....this will probably be it. I think he does connect on one deep route and throws for 150 yards. He runs for 2 scores.


Conclusion:
I know no one wants to hear it...but this game is going to be tight. I fully expect a tied game at halftime. Maybe I am just frustrated over last weeks game, but this Auburn team is very beatable, by anyone. While I DO want to give WSU a lot of credit, the fact remains that talent wise, they should never had led at any point after the first possession. They have ZERO breakout players. ASU, on the other hand, has a handful of players that could play anywhere. What's more, they have proven themselves against competition where as Auburn's talent has yet to do so.

I thought that Mississippi State was the make or break game of the year. Honestly, this is the game. Maybe I am too hard on Auburn. I am THIS CLOSE to calling an upset. I just can't do it.
38-31 Auburn. 

The Auburn Realist: The Washington State Review

I am going to say this: On all the things I was right in predicting...it's because I am awesome. On the other things, I am going to just say that I had never seen this team play together...so ignorance.

For real though. Let's look back at my predictions. At least the ones that are pertinent going forward.

Here were last weeks predictions: The Auburn Realist: The Washington State Preview

Let's see how I did.

Things BFZ was right on:

1) I called Therezie. And I stand by that. Kid is a Gamer with a capital G. Garret may be better in practice and all, but you can't pull a kid off the field who was the SEC Defensive Back of the Week and immediately a Thorpe Watch Lister.

2) In related talk, the secondary played almost exactly how I 'spected. I expected them to have a few penalties, and really, they SHOULD have had a TON of them. But, the officials let the kids play and I am ok with that. 3 INTs and 3 missed picks, a ton of pass break ups. While I was ready to punt on my idea of the secondary showing such promise early in the game, they made some adjustments in the 2nd quarter and they really shined despite getting the rock chunked at them nearly 60 times.

3) Adams and Lawson indeed made it on the field early. And made a splash. If I am not mistaken, the first play they were in was a TFL. No one really destroyed the WSU offensive line, but Adams let them know he was there for sure.

4) Marshall didn't throw much. I knew he wouldn't.

5) LB play. Again, Holland is just dreadful. I know a lot of people think he gets a bad rap. But, another game under his belt and he is still unable to stuff runs or get in coverage. His pursuit angles...I don't even know what to say. The other LBs show promise, but they have got to get better and discipline.



Things BFZ was wrong on:

1) The biggest whiff to me was on CAP. Despite having an almost 6 yard per carry average, he was never thrown the ball nor did he really get the touches. I can't fault myself for that. When he did get the ball, specifically out of the Wild CAP (HA!) he made the defense pay. I wasn't terribly impressed with the 3rd and short effort for the entire offense though. I still stand by my prediction. He will replace Mason as the All-Purpose Back.

2) Marshall didn't put up stellar stats in any category. Again, the lack of passing attempts didn't surprise me. Though I feel that his receivers made the difference between his 90 pass yards and 150, which is what he should have had. Dropped passes, lack of effort (at least two long routes were given up on), and misfires all cost him on numbers. His rushing yards were low, mostly because of a very potent attack by his running backs. I fully expect him to make it to 150 yards very soon. Likely next week against MSU.

3) Corey Grant. Wow. He made me pay. I'm not totally sold on him yet, but I said the same thing about McCaleb in 2009. Let's see how this week goes.

4) Bray still hasn't broken out. He will, I am confident. I mean, a receiver MUST show up among the 5 that we are using. He has shown the best hands.


So, there you have it. What do I think about it?

Well, Adams and Lawson are going to be THE guys. What's surprising is that the upper classmen don't seem to be making any push. Again. It's the same song as last year. We were getting ZERO pressure on WSU until the youngins' came in the game. And while thy play with high motors and little discipline, at least SOMETHING was getting done. Where is the other guys? The D-Line that is supposed to be ridiculous? I guess it's still stuck in last year.

As long as our secondary can continue to make adjustments, they will possibly be the highlight of the Defense.

Offensively, it just wasn't clicking. I mean, we scored. I can't complain about that. But, everything was obviously disjointed. Moreso than we have seen from first year starters in the past. I do expect it to be better this week. And speaking of, time to go write that post!

See you in a little bit!

Humminbird 798 SI Installation on My Skeeter

When we bought the Skeeter, it lacked any sort of modern electronics. I have gotten used to having good electronics and I felt completely lost fishing any lake in a depth of 10 feet or more. I had been saving money for a good unit for awhile, but I couldn't quite afford a new one.

Luckily, I cam across a Hummingbird 798 SI combo the other day. I made an offer one it, it was accepted, and I picked it up that night. I was eager to install it the next day. The install takes about 2 hours.

The tools you will need:

• power screw driver
• box of machine screws
• wire strippers
• wire nuts/crimps
• heat shrink
• variety of drill bits
• silicone
• wire ties
• latex gloves
• Dremel Tool

1. First things first, I had to remove the old unit, it's mount, and it's wiring. Make sure you clean the surface that was below the old unit. Doing so will help prevent scratches from dirt particles underneath the new unit. 
2. Here is Tip #1. Any time you uncover old screw holes in fiberglass, make sure you make an attempt to seal them with silicone. You do not want water inclusion into the fiberglass. 
3. Locate the optimum position to mount your unit. Remember the old saying about measuring twice. Make sure that you sit exactly they way you will sit in the boat. Mark this location and the mounting holes with a Sharpy.
4. Then, utilizing several of the same holes, I installed the Ram mount and antennae that came with my purchase. For the remaining holes, I used a pilot drill to make a small hole. This will prevent a direct screw installation from splintering the fiberglass.  Like in the above Tip, make every attempt to seal up new screw holes by dabbing a little silicone on the screw you are about to install. I also rubbed a thin layer of silicon on the bottom of the mounts so that they would not rub and scratch the surface. It will also prevent water inclusion under the metal mount so that rusting of the mount is not possible. 
5. I then ran the wiring. There was already a good routing job done for the old unit. The horn cover had been slightly cut to allow passage of the wires. Since there were now 3 wires instead of 1, I had to Dremel the slot a little bigger. I used the same power and ground leads from the old unit. I used crimp connectors, but added heat shrink tubing in order to seal the wiring against water. The transducer wire is run to the back of the boat. In this case, I removed the cup holder and the driver side storage compartment basket. I then opened the cowl to and ran the wiring around the gas tanks, then ran it out of the hydraulic steering line ports and down the jack plate.
6. Next, I modified the transducer holder so that I could bolt it to an existing hole on the jackplate. This simply involved locating a mounting position and drilling holes in the mount that would accommodate the mounting location. I made sure that the transducer was level to the water and very secure. It is imperative that you install it so that it is even with the bottom of the boat and there will be no part of the boat that will interfere with the ultrasonic signal. 
7. I then mounted the unit on the ram mount and plugged in the wire bundles
8. That is the basic installation. It is not hard. I then cleaned up the installation by zip tying wires so that they would not be unsightly or loose. 

Picture 1: The Uld Unit

 Picture 2: Ram Mount Installed and Wiring Routed

Picture 3: Transducer Mounted

Picture 4: The Finished Project

Sci-Fi Book Review: The Wreck of the River of Stars by Michael Flynn

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Any time I am going out of town on business, I MUST buy a new book to read. The problem is, I rarely know in advance when I am heading out, which means I can't shop thrifty. Yep. Usually that means I buy a book from Barne's and Noble's the night before, or even worse...a book from the airport.

Anyway, what I have learned in the last few years is to review the reviews before purchase. There is a growing trend these days for writers to pump out mainstream literature that is a bid to make a dollar instead of a statement.

"The Wreck of the River of Stars" comes highly recommended on Amazon. Something like 50 reviewers since it's release early this year. Those reviewers score it as a 4 star. I was VERY wary of that.

Amazon.com Review

In his excellent novel The Wreck of The River of Stars, Michael Flynn looks back on the romantic Age of Sail: the second, high-tech Age of Sail, when spaceships with vast magnetic sails rode the solar winds across the immense ocean of space, and the greatest of the luxury spaceliners was The River of Stars. But the second Age of Sail is dead: the magnetic sails all were struck, and the spaceships all were retrofitted with the new Farnsworth fusion drive. Once a legend, The River of Stars is now a tramp cargo freighter, plying the outer planets with a scanty crew of men and women with questionable pasts, private agendas, and more than a little interpersonal friction. When a bizarre failure disables the Farnsworth engines driving The River of Stars, the crew has a problem no Earthly sailor ever faced: their ports don't stay put. If The River of Stars doesn't arrive on schedule, Jupiter will be somewhere else in its enormous orbit. That means the damaged ship will speed out of the solar system and drift forever among the stars. The crew's only hope appears to be the magnetic sail. But recreating a long-gone high-tech sail isn't the worst problem this motley crew faces. To survive, they must achieve something even more herculean: they must overcome their own intricately entangled fears, hatreds, power struggles, and romantic disasters. --Cynthia Ward --

Zach's Review

This novel developed 14 characters, though many of those are not used much throughout the book. However, they are well described and the reader can easily understand them. The main characters, 9 or so, are extremely well developed. In particular, most of them are heroic, but not in the sense that most writers write their hero as infallible. On the contrary, every character has their flaws and those flaws are slowly shown and descried throughout the novel in small tid bits, like bread crumbs. I would say that Flynn does as good a job as I have ever read on the complete dissection and analysis of a character. Best of all, he doesn't spoon feed every character to the reader in a fire hose of information in the first chapter.  It is a rare thing to understand a character so well that you can predict HOW they will react to a situation in a novel based upon the authors job of development.

Additionally, the intertwining of the characters lives, given the robust description and development, show the full dynamic among the crew, which is very unique. 

These a substantial amount of science put into this novel  should make any technical reader happy. Specifically, the science of orbital mechanics is a firm driver behind the plot of the entire piece of literature. Additionally, engineers especially will enjoy reading about the technical problems and their associated solutions that are faced on the ship. At all times, the reader is made well aware of the cause and effect of the environment of space and the ships behavior in it. 

What I liked: 

The writing style was very unique and well done. It is fairly advanced in its style, which causes readers to slow down and really comprehend every detail of the writing, lest something escape. 

The characters are easy to understand and follow

The plot flows very well and is packed with multiple cause-and-effect plot drivers. Not just 1 or 2 hurdles to overcome, but a fault tree of situations.

There was a good amount of technical writing done

What I didn't like:

Beginning about the middle of the book, a sub-plot formulated itself very similar to 2001: A Space Odyssey which was easy to spot and predict. 

Conclusion: 4 Stars

Overall, I greatly enjoyed this book. Despite the amount of shallow and pedantic literature that I have read in the last few years that has made me avoid ANY work written in the last 10 years, I believe the reviews were spot on about this book. Furthermore, I firmly believe that a non-sci-fi reader would really enjoy this work. I can't talk enough about the character development and the science ingrained in the the plot. This is one novel that I will put on the bookshelf at my office. 

MFC Tournament: Wheeler Lake/Ditto Night 8/23/13

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I haven't had much time to fish tournaments this year. In fact, fishing time in general has been hard to come by. I can count on 1 hand the number of "full day" trips I have taken. By that, I mean, those where I get up and hit the water before sun up. That's part of being grown up, I guess. I have to get the kids to school since I have a wife that holds down a full time job. That makes it almost impossible to make it to ANY lake before 8am.

But, it doesn't really bother me. I am very proud of my wife and her career. It's a very worthwhile sacrifice. Anyways, I was going somewhere with that. 

Oh. Yeah. So, I have only fished 4 tournaments this year. I fished the NATA Open, the Snufish tournament, one NASA club (MFC) tournament, and I was going to get to fish this tournament. 

Friday night tournaments work great for me. I can get the kids settled for my wife and hit the water without having to worry about picking them up for school or whatever. So, I've been watching this date on the calender for awhile.

Of course, there are a few issues. 

Number 1: Aubree had a soccer game at 5:15 and I am the coach. Can't miss that. It's a 40 minute game and the tournament started at 5:30. So, I would be doing awesome to get to the ramp by 6:30.

Number 2: I have fished a grand total of about 5 night tournaments. And I have done well in them, by my standards anyway. Except that I have not caught but MAYBE 3 fish after dark. Case in point, Wilson lake in 2012.

All that meant was, unless Josh were to meet me at the ramp with a limit...I would be catching them after dark....or going home empty handed. 

So, I rocketed down South Parkway to Ditto Landing. Grabbed two Hardees thick burgers, a few Gatorade and a 5 Hour energy drink. Josh met me at the ramp. As we loaded my stuff in...I had to ask. 

"Do you have a limit?"

"No. But I do have a nice fish. About 2 pounds. Got him flipping isolated cover just like the pros."

Of course, I had to check for myself. My luck isn't normally THAT good. That end of Wheeler lake is tough to find ANY fish with size, other than 12 inch squealers. Sure enough, he opened the lid and showed me 1 solid fish and 1 squeaker. So, we were already 40% done! I'll take that. 

So, then we had a choice. We could fish the local areas...areas we know well...and HOPE to find a pile of 2 pound clones and pray that no one caught a bucket head. Or we could run to the dam. That's quite the dilemma. Neither of us has fished the dam very much. Neither us EVER has night fished up there. But we both knew we would struggle to find keepers fishing the typical spots. In fact, there is only one hole we know of where we MIGHT find a good bag...and that spot is so hit or miss that we didn't want to gamble. The dam costs a lot of gas too.....

So, to the dam we went. It's not THAT long of a ride, but both of us knew it was a gamble just to go and that it would be time consuming coming home after dark, for safety reasons. There were several boats up there, but no one we knew. We fished around the dam itself without any luck. Fished some wing walls and current breaks. Nothing. 

Dark came in on us quickly due to the mountains. 

We fished down a rip rap bank about 500 yards down from the dam. The depth dropped quickly to 20 feet from the bank to where we fished, which was about a long flip away. 

I was throwing a mixture of baits behind Josh, who was bouncing a T-rigged creature bait off the bottom. The bottom was very stick, as it seemed like my plastics were constantly finding nooks and crannies in the rocks on the bottom. But, boy did it feel good! 

Josh layed into a fish and it made the line sing a song that scared me! I guess that's because he didn't really know what he was up against. Whatever it was, it pulled back with such force that the tight line made a line of bubbles as it screamed through the water. I thought it had to be a trash fish by the force it was imparting on the reels drag. 

About that time I realized that we didn't have the net out and Josh was standing on the rod locker! I yelled to him to either boat flip it quick or scoop it. About that time the fish made it's appearance and we both got REAL scared! It was a brown fish. A big one at that! He waited until it made a run at the boat, kept the slack out, and boat swung it! Talk about ballsy! The massive smallie hit the deck and we both pounced on it! 

60% done. And with a fish we both were CERTAIN would take home the big fish check! 

As he retied his 8 pound test (ye, he boat flipped a 4+ pound smallie on 8 pound test) the boat quickly was pushed out of position by the formidable current. When we was retied and ready, another boat had taken up position where we were. I guess that's just our luck. 4 boats within 2 miles and 1 of those took our spot. HA! I guess they knew a good spot when they see one. We looked around to find a new spot. About that time, the other 2 boats in the area both moved our of a spot right below the dam that looked real fishy.The spot wasn't that big and two boats were already fishing it. But, it was either there or nowhere as the current was too strong on the other side of the river to even bother with.

So, we decided to fish "dirty" water. I bet we got some laughs as we pulled past the two boats that were leaving.

The first 100 yards didn't yield more than a bream bite. I don't know about Josh, but with the sun down and they best "bite" we had having a boat on top of it,  I was getting pretty used to the idea of not getting a fish. Which, after the Table Rock trainwreck, would be par for the course.

If it would have been day time, I would have thrown a crank and covered a lot of water...eventually picking off a fish or two. But, with night time in full effect, I slowed down and threw the old shakey head. 

I have well documented my desire to get better with finesse techniques and I have gotten to where I have confidence in the shakey head. It's been a New Years Resolution. So much so that I put my other rods down and decided that it was either the shakey head or a T-rig big work for here on out. 

I was throwing my Spot Remover Pro Series 1/4 stand up shakey head(I won't throw anything else) backed with a PowerTeam Lures 5" Sick Stick in Watermelon Red Flake/

It didn't take long to pay off. After a miss or two, I figured out that I was missing soft bites. I started hopping the wait instead of shaking it. That way, if a fish had grabbed it, I would feel the extra weight. I snagged a short fish, tossed him, made another cast, hopped the bait about a foot off the 20 foot rocky bottom and it got heavy. I nailed the fish (since my YouTube subscribers say I hook set like a woman.) The fish, obviously a keeper, fought back. This time, we had the net out and although Josh missed the fish AT LEAST 5 times, it finally did him a favor and jumped in the net. It wasn't massive, but it was a nice 2 pounder. 

Josh picked up his shakey head and we worked the remainder of the bank. Up and down, though we occasionally had to skip areas for bank fishermen. There were definite areas where the fish were...and those where the fish weren't. Soon, we knew where those spots were and we caught 2-3 fish real quick. So it went and next thing you know, we were catching nothing but quality fish, including a NICE 4 pound large mouth that I had to fight for what seemed like eternity.We culled at least 3 times that I can recall and we figured we were sitting on 12 pounds. 

We started at that spot around 9:30 or so and we started heading back around 11:15 in order to be safe.

I have to admit how smug I felt. And, if you follow me on FaceBook on my Best5Zach Outdoors page, you could tell I thought we had it in the bag. And, why not? Deep summer on Wheeler is a crap shoot. Josh and I have done extremely well in the past in the deep summer Wildcat tournaments out of Ditto. It normally takes 9-11 pounds to win and sometimes just a limit of 6 pounds can take a check. With 12 pounds and a solid kicker, we just KNEW it was over. 

So, we didn't fish on the way back. We just cruised under the full moon. As I peered over the bow looking for debris or buoys, I spotted something hit the front of the hull and bounce towards Josh. I yelled at him...but it was too late. A bat smacked him in the face, then decided to hold on for dear life! 

It was crazy! And scary. It about knocked him out. I guess it was like getting hit in the face with a baseball. 

Other than that, we made it back. Smugly tucked our fish into the weigh bag and headed to the scale. I HAVE learned that you don't always have the big fish. Even if you have the biggest bag, it is ALWAYS possible someone hung a wall hanger. But, I thought...no way could anyone have a bigger bag. I seemed to be right as several of our boats didn't weigh fish, or weighed in 5 small ones. So, we dumped ours and weighed in a surprising 14+ pounds with a 4.27 Small mouth. WOW! 

The last boat came to the scales as Josh went to take the fish back to the water. As they opened the bag, I saw this massive maw of a mouth looking up at me. At LEAST a 6 pounder. No problem. Even with a 6 pounder, they had to have a 2 pound average on the remaining 4. Well, after they dropped in a 6.82 beast on the scale, they dropped a 5 pound book end on us. And then, another 2 nice fish. For a grand total of...

Gasp...

19+ pounds. 

Now, I have HEARD of sacks that big being weighed in at Ditto. But never in the summer. And never at a short night tournament. Josh has seen a few bigger bags that that, but during the prespawn. In fact, to be honest, our bag is one of the biggest I have seen weighed in up there. Maybe the largest. It beat me and Josh's old personal best by over 3 pounds.

Oh well. To be honest, I was flabbergasted at first, but I got over it real quick. Sure, I didn't win a tournament. But, we caught a lot of fish, had several personal bests (Josh's PB small mouth and our combined biggest sack PB). We caught fish after dark. We learned were some rock piles were and we have a lot of confidence in a new area. That's probably the most important part because we KNOW that's where the winners fish. 

The Auburn Realist: QB Revisited

So, we have covered a brief breakdown of the first half of the season, the in-depth analysis of the Washington State Game. But what about my thoughts on the QB selection? After all, I was pretty open about my thoughts in my Post A-Day Analysis. And here I have been...silent as a church mouse about the new QB. If you read the article, you can see why. I didn't give near enough credit to either Jeremy Johnson or Nick Marshall.

I guess, in my old age, I have learned to never trust something I have not seen with my own eyes. It's something that I have learned at NASA. Never believe someone's stats or powerpoint until you see the evidence yourself. Contractors who build components for our new rockets have, since the dawn of the space age, stretched, exaggerated, downplay, and outright misdirect and lie. In the same way, stats can lie. Highlights on a video can lie. Coaches can even misdirect. Either for the good or bad.

So, I simply pointed out my thoughts on Marshall. He was turnover prone. A bunch of them over in JuCo land. Athleticism aside, he is raw. He didn't go through the spring.

Jeremy Johnson is a true freshman. A TRUE FRESHMAN. Playing a true freshman at QB is death. It's 3-Sigma Certainty in stats land. If you start one, he will falter. Furthermore, he will never recover. I took into consideration that he was not on campus, like Marshall, for the spring.

So, going into the fall, I made the call. Though the coaches said that neither QB stood out, I felt Wallace played reasonable in the A-Day game. Well enough to put Frazier on the bench. That call turned out to be right. Furthermore, I figured that having beaten Frazier out, he could have the jump on the newcomers and beat them out simply with experience. Now, I did know that he was not as physically gifted as the other two. I didn't think pure athleticism could win. I might still be right.

What I didn't expect was what ended up being reality. Both the newcomers were able to put both athleticism AND solid game play together in only a few short weeks. At least, enough to beat the two incumbents. While I REALLY REALLY want to believe that they are just THAT good...that we have an immediate impact player in Marshall who could be...might we say it....Cam Light, despite that Coaches and Marshall himself don't want to compare them to #2. What we do know is that he was good enough to go to one of the finest NFL defense player factories and start at UGA. He's good enough. At what...we just don't know....and we won't until possible Mississippi State comes to town.

I want to believe that Johnson is that good. We haven't had a high profile QB prospect...or really ANY prospect for that matter....to work out. See...well....any QB prospect in the last 10 years. Burns, Rollison, Pike, Frazier. Since we all started keeping up with recruiting as a 2nd football season. So, in one hand.,  it was a pleasant surprise to hear of a recruit that was making splashes. On the other hand, it made me really question the two returning starter's abilities. I know that everyone has heard it said that neither are SEC material...and I listened. I just didn't want to believe that a team 3 years removed from a NC was that hard up on QBs. Doesn't seem to happen to anyone BUT Auburn. I guess I can get on the bus with everyone else and throw rocks at Chizik.

So here we are. Wallace is a "2nd Stringer" though it's obvious what will happen. He is the Neil Caudle of the 2013. Wallace is the REAL backup, and Johnson will get redshirted....much to many people's dismay. In my mind, this is the only course of action. But I digress.

Think what you want of the old staff, particularly on the offensive side of the ball and the old head coach. Let's not all forget how we were ALL on board the Fire Ted Roof bus because there simply was NO WAY that Chizik would allow a defense to suck to bad. What happened? Roof took over a Penn State unit that was absolutely gutted and turned them into a top 20 unit. Hmmmmmm. It sure starts to look like the old staff wasn't too great with managing and developing players. Hey, I gotta admit...it gives me a good alibi for being almost dead wrong on my prognostication.

What's in the past is in the past...right? So, now what do I think? Wow. You are thinking...man...I had to read a lot just to get here. Sorry. I have to justify myself.

Quick thought about Johnson. He is labeled as the future as Auburn. Is he? Where have I heard this before? Seems to me that the only great modern QB we ever had never went through this process that we keep using to brand these young kids. Let me see him get on the field, win or lose...and learn. THEN we will talk about futures. After all, this would take a QB to actually start 2 years in a row.....novel idea in Tiger Town.

So Marshall is here. Cue all cutesy comments. Marshall Law, for example.

I want to be excited. I really do. REALLY REALLY. I was excited when Cam got here too. And, like all Redheaded stepchildern of Alabama, I refuse to believe that I can get lucky twice in 5 years. We talked about those picks he threw in JuCo. I don't expect him to throw 20. I do expect him to throw 10. At least. I see a 2:1 ratio at best this year. Really closer to 1.5:1. I also see a good many fumbles at the wrong time during scrambles. Like, against and LSU team.In my opinion, what we will see is a QB who is capable of beating you at any point with his legs, and somewhat capable of making you pay with his arm. I would compare him to Nebraska's own Taylor Martinez. Except that Nebraska has had 4 years to develop a somewhat raw passer out of him. The guy still won't throw a lazer dig route. But he will step back and chunk one when the D crashes in on him. With that being said, I expect him...this year at least....to put up large numbers on the ground against quality opponents while taking full advantage of superior talent in the passing game against the off-teams.

I covered what I think Marshall's stats and gameplay will show against WSU. I think he puts up +250 passing yards. I think he runs for 70 more. He accounts for 3 TDs. He puts up similar numbers on Ark State, though I imagine a few plays between these two games will earn him some one-on-one time with coach.

That's where the fun starts. Everyone knows what MSU is like. They are tough. Always have been. I have seen more of this game than any other and it's always tough. Though, it's a little different this year because it's at night. Auburn always seems to play better at night. Day time SEC games always give them fits. See Ole Miss 2008, Any of a handful of outmatched Arkansas teams, etc.

The MSU will set the stage for the rest of the year. Had MSU snagged that pass in a 2 minute drill in 2010, we might all have known a much different 2010 season. Malzahn said himself that he didn't know what he had until that game. In 2011, a goal line stand was really the highlight of a season for Auburn. Had they lost, they would have been in the SEC West Cellar. Well, deeper that is. Win or loose, We will know what to expect for the rest of the year. Am I calling a win or loss? It's too close to call. It is a field goal, either way.

After a tight game against MSU, he travels to Death Valley. I predict that if Auburn beats MSU...it will be last second and there will be a hangover. Auburn looses to LSU. If Auburn falls to MSU, I predict they win in Death Valley and show their true potential. They still don't win the West, however. But, they DO make the Iron Bowl the first EVER to settle the West.

The team wins out going home against UGA and BAMA, largely in part to a stellar run game. They lose both of those games. In both games, they get down early and Marshall tries...in true heroic fashion.....to win the game himself. But comes up just short. We all blame him for the  turnovers, but we admire that he tried. Which is more than we could say about the team last year.

This isn't all bad. The world will see what Auburn can do. We finally have a "non-rebuilding year" that we all look forward to. And, unlike 2003...this team will produce.

Final Stats for Marshall
150/270 passing for 1300 yards 15 TDs 10 INTs 
1500 rush yards 15 TDs

The Auburn Realist: The Washington State Game Preview

I've already broken down the first section of the season in an earlier post, but with so many moving pieces still in the air, I was very hesitant to make any in depth predictions. But, all the pieces are now in place. Well, MOST of them...anyway. Here were my thoughts on QB race....I haven't gone back and re-read....but I can imagine what I said...And I was pretty surprised...by the finalist.

So, let us speak on the first game of the season and how it looks in perspective to the rest of the first 3rd:

08/31/13	vs. Washington State	Auburn	6:00 PM CT
09/07/13	vs. Arkansas State	Auburn	6:30 PM CT
09/14/13	vs. Mississippi State	Auburn	6:00 PM CT
09/21/13	at LSU	Baton Rouge	TBA

The Washington State Game

Washington State enters the season with cautious optimism. All of you may remember their first game last year. It was a Thursday night game against BYU. With Mike Leach at the helm, everyone expected a high scoring shootout for the years first televised game. It's the PAC-12. You don't need a defense as long as you can outscore, right? I admit, I was one of those that expected it. No one seemed to notice that WSU had been gutted on the offensive line. They hadn't had a defense to begin with, and the cupboard at skill positions would make Leach's job tough. I, along with everyone else, figured that if he could win in the Heart of Texas with the cast offs of every other major programs players, then he could win in the Pac12 North. Nope.

So, a year later. i don't think much has changed. Until the last month, Leach hasn't had a clear starter. The offensive line is still crewed by Walk-Ons. The defense will still be mediocre by Pac-12 standards, at best. And, they have to come to the Loveliest Little Village. I think, talent and coaching aside, the fanbase is absolutely rabid just to see life from their team. I think the fans respond and make it more hostile than we have seen in an opener since the first quarter of the USC game in 2003.

But, like every Auburn fan...I find myself very slow to judge a team. Especially one that is backed into a corner and embarrassed the way WSU was on national TV. I am also slow to have faith in a team that basically returns the same personnel and a few JuCo guys.

This game will be ugly in 1 of 2 ways or a combination of both. Auburn wins this game. Errr...Malzahn wins this game. And, also...the run. And a hungry defense. Ok. More on that later. I believe that the mismatch of talent will also play a roll in it. But, after last years debacles (see the win against LAMO) talent won't blow people off the field. Auburn's offense will score points, but I don't think they will put up a ton of points. I do think, yardage wise, they will double on WSU but the score will be closer than people think.

The difference?

The defense. The Auburn secondary is hungry for turnovers. So hungry that I expect them to over pursue the ball on several occasions and commit a few pass interference calls. You know what? After watching most of the same players play 5 yards off the ball last year, make terrible pursuit angles, etc...I'm ok with it. They will have 3 picks and one gets housed.

The linebacker play will be adequate. I still don't think that Auburn has the elite talent they need. You either get over aggressive run defense with McKinzy, Flowers, etc with terrible coverage or the opposite with Holland.

Up front...I just don't know what to expect in the long run, but I expect 5 sacks and 1 fumble recovery.

Offensively: Yes. Marshall will put up big numbers. Well, yardage, that is. The ground game will eat WSU alive and I see +250 yards in the air and another 75 on the ground before the chain gets yanked on him. But, I don't think he will have a +3 TD game or anything. e. But, I do expect a few bum series and at least 1 bonehead play from Marshall, which will earn him couch time with Coach on Sunday. Whether that is a fumble on a scramble or a pick from throwing across his body...time will tell. I expect the group of receivers to all double their yardage from last year in 1 game, with maybe the exception of Bray, who I do expect to have 150 APY. That isn't saying much, I realize. There won't be a break performance by the receivers simply because the ball will be spread around. I do expect Bray to take a slant/bubble/hitch to the house, though.

Breakout players and What to Watch for:
Cameron Artis-Payne will get the lion's share of work. Mason will be use sparingly...maybe even sat at halftime entirely. While this will be done to preserve Auburn's "Feature Back", A lot of head scratching will start. 'Cause I fully expect Mason to become a 2nd-and-short/3rd-and-long back by midseason. CAP will become the Ben Tate to Mason's Brad Lester circa 2008. Book it. CAP beats them up inside. He breaks it outside. All in all, he rolls up 150 APY and 3TDs. Ballsy, you say? Again. Book it.

Kiehl Frazier gets on the field by late 2nd quarter as a safety and gets a standing ovation. He makes plays, and good for him. I will be a much bigger fan of a proto-typical size and speed safety as I was of his dregs of the galaxy bust QB. By the end of the season, I full expect him to be a 1A player or even a starter.

The true freshman d-line duo of Adams/Lawson sees the field early. Like, real early. 3rd or 4th possession. The result will be immediate. Both of them record tackles for loss in this game. I don't expect them to have the impact that Clowney had, and I think Auburn fans should temper their expectations of them...though it will be hard with their early field time and impact on this game.  But these two get in the game and the stadium will wring their hands....and they will make a pure adrenaline play. they will also make a pure adrenaline miss-play too. Honestly, ever D-Line player will have a TFL in this game and I don't think this will be indicative of the season, either. In fact, the WSU line...walk-ons or not...will keep the D-line at bay. For a few series.

Zach's "WHO THE HECK WAS THAT?!?!?!?!" player?That would be #27, Robenson Therezie. Garrett is no doubt a good player. But I think he is more feel good than real good. If you know about him, you know he was typed last few years as an undersized LB now turned star position breakout. Yeah yeah. But few players...heck...NO players have shown me the Jr Rosegreen level of meanness that Therezie has. Kid is mean. Loves contract. Has a nose for the ball. Does he commit penalties? Yes. Can they be boneheaded and committed at the worst time? Yes. But, just like I tell my flag football team...I will take 1 a game just to let the offense know you were there and you want blood. He gets in early and he takes over the defensive backfield with at least one game stopping hit.

The player you keep waiting on: Corey Grant. With CAPS performance, the hungriness of the freshman RBs behind Mason/CAP, the emergence of Quan Bray in the slot, poor Grant will not get the touches people expect.

Final Score? 45-35 with a few late scores to look respectable against an SEC opponent by WSU.