Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Best5Zach's Week 3 SEC Picks

The Auburn Realist: Overview
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Whew. That was a rough week. Thankfully, I didn't add a pick for the TCU vs Arkansas game. Although I probably would have gone the right way with it, it was wild enough that I didn't need that kind of stress in my life. Watching it was stressful enough. I went 5 and 5 this past weekend, which brings my yearly total to 13 and 11 for a combined 54%, same as it was last week, obviously. 

Biggest miss of the year? Last week's Florida vs Kentucky. Now look, Florida has been really, really bad on offense and NO ONE has played Florida tougher than Kentucky since Urban Meyer left the Swamp. But, I missed both picks. Luckily, I nailed the Auburn vs Arkansas State and Tennessee got me the "over." 

Vandy at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 124th is passing and 24th in rushing offense. Vandy ranks 36th in rushing defense, allowing 108 yards per game and having allowed just one rushing TD. Thing is, GT ranks that high just because of their game against Mercer this past weekend. Boston College, perhaps the best run stuffing team in the Nation, held GT to just 119 rushing yards. 68 of those came on one play. In all, the Yellowjackets averaged a paltry 2.7 yards per carry.

On the other side, Vandy showed some life on offense this past week when they got Webb off and running. He is now averaging 6.8 yards per carry. In the loss against South Carolina, he was held to 20 carries and 97 yards for an average over 5 YPC. One has to wonder what would have happened with just a few more touches.

The biggest stat is this: Georgia Tech currently has the 6th best redzone defense in the nation. Vandy is tied at first with redzone offense. Amazingly, they have scored seven TDs in nine tries. Six of those on the ground. Tech is a 6.5 point favorite at home. Vandy has been unable to prove themselves as a winner, but I do think they cover this spread. The over/under is currently 42.5.  Take Vandy and the under.

Texas A&M at Auburn
Auburn showed some life on offense by rolling up more than 700 yards on offense and adding two 100-yard rushers. TAMU is currently ranked 20th in rushing defense but 95th in passing. However, they sit at 14th in the stat that matters: scoring defense. Their week one win against UCLA in overtime was offset by a horrible matchup this past weekend, however. UCLA and Auburn are very similar offenses and TAMU struggled mightily against an off performance by Josh Rosen. 

Auburn's defense isn't as good as the performances on the field might suggest, but they mismatches are all on the side of the Tigers.The question will be if TAMU exploits mismatch in pass pro on Auburn's linebackers, which is where Arkansas State succeeded. However, because TAMU has no run game, Auburn will be in nickle and dime coverage for most of the game to offset it. 

Auburn is a 3.5 point favorite at home. The over/under is set at 54. Take the Tigers and the points and the under

Mississippi State at LSU
Yes, State lost to South Alabama. But, understand that South Alabama is no pushover. The Bulldogs were simply unprepared. State has a very underrated and underappreciated defensive line that has stuffed the run. They are 12th against the run while giving up gobs of yards in the air. Meanwhile. LSU has been a mess on offense. I like first time starters in non-marque games and this game definitely qualifies as one of those. 

On the other side of the ball, LSU has been LSU. State continues to look for an identity. You almost have to take LSU by default because the believe is that State won't be able to do anything against LSU. However, keep in mind that QB Nick Fitzgerald didn't play much against South Alabama and completely dominated South Carolina. He did his damage by running to the tune of 195 yards. That's a school record. Limited film and a struggling LSU team is a terrific recipe. 

Speaking of, Dak tuned up LSU both years that he was a starter. LSU's front continues to struggle against dual threat QBs. LSU opens as a 12.5 favorite and the over/under sits at 45. Take State to beat the spread and the over on points

Georgia at Missouri
Talk about a bad game. This one will be almost unwatchable. Missouri isn't in the first page of defensive rankings. Why? Because their offense is offensive. 

Nick Chubb and Sony Michel may not have the best yards per carry, but one has to believe all the Dawgs have to do is keep handing the ball off. It (whoever is at QB) can manage to go 50% without an INT, Georgia walks. The Dawgs are 6.5 point favorites and the over/under sits at 50.5. They cover that in a laugher. Take UGA all the way and the over. I do believe UGA dominates but I don't see that many points.

Game of the Week
Alabama at Ole Miss
As much as I could talk for days about this game, I don't have to. 
Ole Miss' defense has regressed drastically. Alabama got the a** chewing it needed (though I think everyone knew what was coming with Western Kentucky). The streak stops here and Alabama walks away from Oxford with an easy win. The line is 9.5 and I believe Alabama will double that. The over under is 54.5 points Take Alabama and the points as well as the over