Wednesday, September 21, 2016

SEC Week 4 Picks

The Auburn Realist: Overview
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Well, this weekend certainly didn't go as I had hope. Sure, I was 5-5 in handicapping but I consider that lucky considering just how random the games seemed to go. There were some good picks and some bad ones. The Vandy vs Georgia Tech pick, for example. Started out 0-2 on that one. Ouch. The good news is, I am still 18-16 for the year, which is 53%. That's exactly where I was after week one. Tons of great games this week! 

Florida at Tennessee
This game has been circled for a long, long time for UT. So much so that they really haven't bothered to show up to play, other than the second half of the Bristol Bowl. 

Florida is quietly slipping into Rocky Top 3-0, having played no one of note. They've allowed just 14 points this year and shut out North Texas this past Saturday. 

UT has been fortunate enough that the great experiment in letting Dobbs progress as a passer when he is clearly a runner hasn't hurt the Vols. Forcing the issue against Florida is a recipe for disaster. I do believe that UT will play its best game of the season, thus far. However, they are prone to penalties and mistakes. Let's be honest, though. Betting against the Vols has worked out well for most of the sharps. Florida will be relying on a backup QB. With a 7.5 line and a 43.5 over/under, I am going to call for Florida to cover that spread in a tight, tight game and I will take the under

LSU at Auburn
Trying to understand either of these teams is folly. Why bet on teams that don't know what they are doing? I don't know. But, there are some things we do know: Auburn has kept the under in both of its games against good competition. Of course, that's partly because the offense has been so absolutely terrible while the defense has looked fantastic. 

LSU is currently a 3.5 point favorite and that line just seems silly considering what Fournette did to Auburn last year and what the LSU team is capable of doing to anyone on a good day. The Auburn offense just looks sad. 

This could be Gus' last game at Auburn and that does provide some sort of reasoning to think Auburn could win this game. But I don't buy it. Take LSU. The over/under is 46.5. Both of these defenses are very, very good. Therefore, I will take the under

Arkansas at Texas A&M
I wasn't terribly impressed with Texas A&M Saturday night at Auburn. That doesn't mean that the Aggie defensive ends weren't impressive, because they were. However, the clinic that was put on display wasn't about TAMU's defense as much as Herb Hand and Gus Malzahn simply being unprepared and unwilling to coach against the Aggie front. Time and time again they tried to pull on offensive lineman and it didn't work. On the flip side, Auburn consistently moved the ball in the heart of the Aggie defense. 

Guess what, that's exactly what Brett Bielema and Co are going to do. They will find success, but what will they do if and when they get down? This is the one team in the SEC West that the Hogs have yet to beat. 

TAMU is a six point favorite at home. This game has gone to OT in the past two years. I'd take the over and Texas A&M to cover

Georgia at Ole Miss
There isn't a team in America that has done what Ole Miss has done: give up huge first half leads. UGA has given up at least 24 points in every game this year. Ole Miss will score and won't let up in the second half. Take Ole Miss to cover the 7 and the over on the 60 point line.