Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Week 5 SEC Picks

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Another .500 week in the books which brings me to 22-20. I need a good week and this one looks like a good one to get right. 

Florida at Vandy 
Florida opens as a ten point favorite and the over/under is set at 40. After giving up only 14 total points in three games, Florida wilted against UT and doubled that score. Vandy has been a mixed bag. Their lone decent defensive effort was against South Carolina before USC made a critical change at QB. Ralph Webb is averaging 5 yards a carry, a respectable number. That's just slightly less than his QB's average per attempt while adding in just two TD tosses to two INTs. 

Florida will bounce back big by stacking the box on Webb and forcing Schurmer to throw against the Gators terrific secondary. The 40 point over/under may be fool's gold, but you almost have to take it. Take Florida to cover and the over on points

Texas A&M at South Carolina
USC is an 18 point dog at home with a 48 point over/under. The Gamecocks have not scored more than 20 points in any contest this year and that is against the bottom of the SEC and East Carolina. Their defense has been respectable, but it will wilt against the Aggie offense thanks to a very, very good Aggie defense that will both shorten the field and that will keep the Gamecock defense on the field far longer than they can handle. This game should be close at half, but it will be a trainwreck late.

I don't see South Carolina getting anything going against this defense who is far superior. 

Take TAMU and the over. 

Kentucky at Alabama
Alabama is favored by 35 point favorite with a 57.5 point over/under. What is there to really say about this game? Really the only thing that could possibly happen is for Bama to maybe look forward to next week's top 20 matchup between the Tide and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Still, Alabama has scored at least 38 points in every game this season. 

Kentucky has been able to score, but has only 24 points in two SEC contests. Neither of those games were on the level of Alabama. While Ole Miss did put up 43 points, it is worth noting that the other three games thus far have been laughable, a mere 16 points scored. Take Alabama to cover and the under on points...but only because Saban wishes it. 

Memphis at Ole Miss
Ole Miss opens as a 14.5 point favorite at home with a 67 point over/under. Everyone remembers this game from last year, of course. But, this game isn't in Memphis nor is Fuente still the coach. A Tennessee transfer is running the show behind center. Ole Miss is going to cover this spread and perhaps even the entire under/over by themselves. Keep in mind that Ole Miss hasn't exactly kept people out of the endzone. Take Ole Miss and the Over. 

Tennessee at Georgia
UT is a 3.5 favorite with a 53 over/under. Will UT suffer an emotional hangover after ending the streak? UT beat UGA last season after Chubb went out with a first play from scrimmage injury and the Dogs haven't been the same since. Sure, this game is in Athens but Georgia's defense has been deplorable. They have allowed at least 24 points to every team they've faced, though it should be noted they have played some decent competition.

Still, UT seems to have finally found their identity. Take the Vols and the over on points.