Tuesday, October 13, 2015

SEC Week 7 Picks

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Go catch up on last week's picks. 

SEC Week 6 Picks


I wasn't....awful. I went 2-2. Coulda woulda shoulda but I should have been 4-0. But, injuries happen (Chubb) and South Carolina played inspired defense for a half. 13-8 is my current record after two straight week's of 2-2 performances. But, consider that I was awfully scared of the games this weekend. Lots of traps. 

Let's move on. 

Missouri at Georgia- Anyone thought Georgia would drop two straight games this year? Certainly not. Two losses would have been considered a worst case scenario just a month ago. Now it's happened in back to back weeks. I don't think anyone would have predicted a loss to UT, even without Chubb. Fact is, Richt was Richt and the Georgia football fan nation (whatever they call themselves) was Richt-rolled. Missouri's offensive slide continued against Florida, though their string of terrific defensive performances continued. Florida scored 14 points in the first quarter, two TD runs by Taylor. The Tiger defense held solid afterwards. The line is Georgia -16 with an over/under of 46 points. Basically, the betting public is saying that Missouri is going to score more than two TDs. I simply don't see that happening with the way they have played. While the Tiger's defense is really really good, UGA will retool. I will take UGA and the points. 

Florida at LSU- Who would have thought this would be a Top 10 matchup? Many saw LSU as a contender, but no one really saw Florida being a top 10 team. The situation is familiar to Auburn fans who saw a similar situation in 2013. The line is LSU -6.5. Florida lost Grier for the season just as he was beginning to look like a true SEC-caliber quarterback. The running game hasn't been spectacular outside of the redzone. Florida's strength is the defensive backfielf, which won't be an issue with Fournette on the field. With this game being at home, I am forced to take LSU and the points. 

Alabama at Texas A&M- TAMU is quietly hanging around, undefeated and in the top 10. Though the Chavis hire was big, many said that the defensive hires at LSU and Auburn were both better and would take effect quicker than the Chavis deal. That isn't to say that the defense is great, because it really isn't. They held a struggling ASU and Mississippi State defense to 17 points, while giving up even more to the likes of Ball State and Nevada. Alabama escaped a narrow defeat against Arkansas at home. That shouldn't have been surprising, as that was a theme in the past. Additionally, the Alabama offense didn't pick up where it was last year, but has in fact regressed. If Kiffin would be devoted to the run, Alabama would almost certainly win every game, though the score may not be impressive. He seems to have no interest in the traditional methods of the Tide as he abandons the run for whole drives. Additionally, Coker is terrible with pressure in his face. Enter the TAMU pass rush. Alabama enters as a 4-point favorite and a 53 point over/under. For some reason, I am going to take TAMU. 

Auburn at Kentucky-Auburn is a 2 point favorite on the road,despite a defense that couldn't stop San Jose State and an offense that may see the return of Jeremy Johnson after being unable to pass for a TD without him. The over/under is 51 points. That would lead us to believe that Auburn will win somewhere around 28-24. Without drastic improvement essentially everywhere on offense except at running back, that seems to be a tough task, especially on a road and against a team that hasn't beaten Auburn in Lexington since the 60s. I would point to some statistics, but neither of these teams are especially good enough in any phase to really point to an advantage. Kentucky will have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves with SEC East opponents if they lose. Additionally, winning won't do much for them over than for morale. On the other side, Auburn must win this game. Must. I'm going with Auburn and the points for that reason alone.