Friday, October 30, 2015

SEC Week 9 Picks

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First off, let me pat myself on the back and tell you that I really racked up last week. Not only was I a perfect 4-0 in Week 8 SEC Picks, but I moved up to second place in the TrackEmTigers.com pick 'em league by going 12-8 against the spread. I'm getting pretty good at this. Ironically, I can't do ANYTHING in the ESPN pick 'em league where all you have to do is pick a winner! In terms of picking the SEC games this year, I improve to a, 18-11 record which is 62%. I think that is the exact some percentage I heard a professional boast about this morning. I guess I have been selling myself short, haha! 

Florida vs Georgia- It's the world's largest outdoor cocktail party! This is a game I need to eventually see. Florida is a 3 point favorite in a "neutral site game" in Jacksonville. That's a fancy way of saying that the game is essentially a pick 'em. The crazy thing is, the line had no movement after a change of QB to Bauta for UGA. Florida is a rock-solid team, but doesn't have the explosiveness that is needed to be a true SEC contender. UGA has that, if they can get even mediocre play from Faton Bauta. I really like road dogs with new QBs. Though I expect Bauta to make mistakes, especially against an extremely good Florida secondary, road dogs always play aggressive, which will make the Florida defense respect the pass. Sony Michell has the big game everyone has been expecting. UGA wins, straight up. 

Tennessee at Kentucky-Tennessee closes as an 8.5 point road favorite at Kentucky. As you may recall, I suspected the Dak Show would finally show up at home, and it did. State blasted Kentucky. Tennessee is still smarting after losing against Alabama, yet blowing the 15 point spread. Tennessee hasn't quite arrived yet, but this team is showing some serious ability, reminiscent of the 2003 Auburn squad who was expected to be national contenders before dropping their first couple of games before ultimately finishing strong. While this is a rivalry game and playing at Kentucky certainly helps the 'Cats, I expect Tennessee to cover. Tennessee hasn't played great throwing the ball, but Kentucky's defense is terrible against the pass. With the Vols running game, Dobbs, and the ability to stretch the field vertical, expect huge offensive numbers. On the flip side, Towles will have a decent day airing out the ball. But, don't expect the running game to get going. The real action is on the over-under, which sits at 57.5. I expect that to be blown out by a large margin. Take the over, as that is where the real money will be.  Take the Vols and the points. 

South Carolina at Texas A&M-South Carolina is 16 point dog on the road. The pros are all saying to take the Gamecocks and that the 16 point lie is easy money. Not so fast, my friend. USC is simply a dreadful team. Though they edged out Vandy by 9 points, keep in mind that they allowed Missouri, who has one of the very worst offenses in college football, to put up 24 points. Against better offenses like UGA and LSU, they have given up no less than 45 points. Kentucky, who struggled in their matchup, still put up 26 points and beat USC. Being on the road, even against a struggling TAMU team, is a recipe for disaster. Take the Aggies and the points. 

Ole Miss at Auburn- This line closed at 7.5 points. Auburn continues to show no life on defense, allowing back to back TDs and 2-point conversions, something that I didn't think was possible. The Tiger offense is poised for a breakout game, but against Ole Miss landsharks? I just don't know. White is showing some major ability, but the playcalling and mental breakdowns by the rest of the offense has constantly put the young QB behind the chains. This is the wrong team to be in that situation. On the flip side, Carl Lawson may be back, and that's fantastic. But, this kid hasn't played full speed in over a month. There is ZERO chance that he plays a full game at 100%. And, without that, the Tigers get skull-drug. The only way Auburn pulls close is if Kelly has at least 2 INTs. Take Ole Miss and the points.