Thursday, October 8, 2015

SEC Week 6 Picks

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In case you missed it, go brush up on last week's picks.I started out really well this past week, winning the first two contest with Arkansas springing the upset against the Vols and TAMU putting the wood to Mississippi State. No one saw Ole Miss getting DESTROYED.  As usual, Alabama responded in a big way. That is this week's lesson: always pick Bama in a step-up game. 

Ok, so my yearly total was a split and I move to 11-6 against the spread. Still not bad, but I would prefer 12-5. Thanks UGA and Ole Miss. 

This week's lineup appears to be pretty miserable, but I caution anyone from throwing serious jack around this week. There are a ton of trap game. In fact, all of them are trap games. 

South Carolina at LSU- We have heard the narrative on this game. This game was going to be in Columbia, but massive flooding kept that from happening. Obviously LSU is one dimensional, but that isn't a bad thing. It is hard to argue against 270 rushing yards per game. USC allows 170 rush yards per, but they have only played one team with a viable rushing attack in UGA. Despite that, it was UGA's Lambert who blew the game open with his three TDs. USC is giving up a 37% 3rd down completion percentage. The only thing keeping them in games is the 6 INTs they have picked off. Their offense is averaging only 20 points a game, though they are rushing for a respectable 190 yards a game, though it has been by default because the passing attack has been deplorable. LSU has won the last five meetings. The line is LSU -19, though it is floating between 18 and 20. This is a dangerous play as LSU has Florida up next. I'd steer clear of this game, but I guess I have to pick one. At the current line, that's a two TD and two fieldgoal game, which is just enough for an easy cruise to victory without having to beat Fournette to death. This will allow the young LSU QB to have a good second half of work, where I expect him to make some mistakes that will keep the game close. I am going to take the Gamecock's to stay under the spread. 

Georgia at Tennessee- Both of these teams desperately need a win and one of them will most likely be done for the season after this game. Certainly Tennessee will be hosed if they lose. UGA would need some help if they drop this game. Tennessee is giving up 24 points a game and over 400 yards of offense. 8 sacks, 4 INTs and 3 fumble recoveries have really helped keep that points per game stat lower than it should be. The offense hasn't been as poor as many think. They are averaging 37 points per contest and are over 40% on 3rd down percentage. Their struggle has been in the 4th quarter where the play calling has become super conservative. UGA took a dog-whipping from Alabama last week, but the game was blown open on two different plays that had nothing to do with the defense, which has played incredibly well. People looked at the bottom line and assumed UGA was blown out, but they really weren't that far away from making it a game. The line is currently the Vols +3, which is a line you can make money on. I am taking the Dogs to cover and I don't think it is close. 

Arkansas at Alabama- For the second year in a row, this game will get zero publicity, though it was clearly Alabama's worst game of 2014. Arkansas really turned the corner in this game last year as they ran off some big wins. Arakansas' defense has been fairly efficient, allowing 360 yards and 22 points per game, yet it is the 260 yards of passing that has put a sizeable dent in their production. Additionally, the losses on defense from last year's unit really show in the sacks and turnovers, as the Hogs have picked off just three passes and have just four sacks. The good news is that Alabama has not been able to throw the ball efficiently.  Similar to last year, this game will come down to who can run the ball together and manage to hit the big pass. I like Allen over Coker in that department. Keep an eye on both team's tight ends, who will be the game breakers. The current line is 18. I like Arkansas to keep them under the spread but I wouldn't put money on it. 

Florida at Missouri- This game has all the makings for a a classic SEC East shake up game. We are good for one a year and Missouri is usually involved. The Missouri defense has been incredible, as usual. They are the only thing that has kept Missouri getting wins. The Missouri offense has been dreadful. Florida, on the other side, has been exceptional all the way around. Which is why this is a game to keep an eye upon. The game is currently marked as Florida -5, which tells me the betting public agrees that this is a trap game. Both of these defenses hold opponents well under 20 points. In the end, I like Florida's personnel  better than the Tigers. I will take the Gators and the points.