Monday, October 19, 2015

SEC Week 8 Picks

Follow me on Facebook, YouTube,  and Twitter!

Go catch up on last week's picks. 

SEC Week 7 Picks

Time to own up. I went 1-3 last week thanks to a yawnfest of UGA vs Mizzu that ended in a 9-6 final. Auburn didn't cover the 4 point spread against Kentucky thanks to some ultra-conservative play calling. Kyle Allen's pick-sixes set the tone early and Bama rolled. At least I called the Florida-LSU game correctly. Down to 14-11, ugh. 

Auburn at Arkansas-Arkansas opens as a 5-point favorite at home. Both of these teams have underachieved thus far, but both look to have started bailing water from what looked like a sinking ship just weeks ago. That isn't saying that each program is on the upswing. Arkansas dropped a close game to Alabama after at least making it to half time. They beat Tennessee, who greatly underestimated them. Auburn has a winning streak, of sorts, going. But, aside from the last series of the Kentucky game, they have been unable to stop anyone. It is worth mentioning that Auburn did improve against the run after Muschamp made a statement about "why would anyone pass against us." Well, Kentucky did throw. A lot. Auburn's corners played one of the worst games I can remember. The good news is, Arkansas is utterly depleted at the WR position. Auburn will be sending four and five man rushes against Allen, who is known to make mistakes. On the flip side, though Arkansas hasn't shut anyone out, they have played very good defense. They looked excellent defending the run against Bama. Auburn's run game isn't that good and I think it will be exposed. However, White could very easily have a breakout game. He could as easily flop. I hate to, but I think Arkansas wins. 

Texas A&M vs Ole Miss-We've seen this story before at TAMU. Kyle Allen looked bewildered against Bama. Guess defenses finally have enough game film to put together a game plan. Ole Miss dropped an obvious trap game that everyone pretends they never saw coming.  Memphis has had a very good defense the last few years, now they have an offense. Ole Miss got their teeth kicked in. The Freeze meltdown has begun earlier than expected, it would seem. Ole Miss is a six point favorite at home. There are some issues. Namely, Ole Miss really needs to run the ball to circumvent a pretty good TAMU pass rush, or come up with a very good screen game. Additionally, the TAMU WRs are the best group in the nation. Nkimdiche will be the catalyst. If he plays, Ole Miss wins and covers. If he doesn't, they don't. At this point, we will assume he plays. I will take Ole Miss and the points. 

Kentucky at Mississippi State- Dak is beginning to have those games that everyone expected. I wasn't that impressed with Kentucky's defense. White did take a lot of sacks this past Thursday night, but he also evaded a weak pass rush and threw down field. Dak will destroy the Kentucky pass rush. On the flip side, I wasn't impressed with Kentucky. The line is State -11. I will take them to cover.

Tennessee at Alabama- UT really expected to be undefeated going in to BDS to face the Tide. The Vols played easily their best game of the last two years in the win against UGA but it is painfully obvious that UGA isn't the same without the combination of Chubb and Michele. 15.5 points in the current line. Alabama has been one of the worst teams on covering the spread. If UT shows the aggressiveness and explosiveness they are capable of fielding, they will keep it under the 15.5 line. All Jones has to do is take Auburn's gameplan for the last two years and repeat it. While Dobbs isn't slippery like Marshall nor is he the gamer, he is perhaps as capable. I will take Tennessee against the spread.