Wednesday, September 30, 2015

SEC Week 5 Picks

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In case you missed it, go brush up on last week's picks. Kentucky was the only team that kept me from having a perfect week against the spread. I improved to 9-5 over all. Solid. I should be charging for this.

There are some great games this weekend. Let's take a look! 

Mississippi State at Texas A&M-Sure, State beat Auburn at Jordan-Hare. That isn't saying much. The Tigers are simply dreadful, even against a squad that was drubbed by LSU in their first game. TAMU has quietly been terrific. Auburn's awful offense held State to just one 3rd down conversion in the second half and a total of three points, despite being unable to pressure Prescott. TAMU won't have that issue. Prescott won't be able to sit in the pocket and hope Ross and Wilson get open. On the flip side, State's offense looked suspect at time when Auburn actually opened the playbook, something that Sumlin has no problem with. The line is TAMU -7. I will take TAMU and the point. 

Arkansas at Tennessee- Someone has to get out of the slide. Another strength on strength matchup. Arkansas tried to be balanced. It didn't work. They are going to pound the rock over and over.  With Hatcher out, the lone threat the Hogs have in the air is Henry. Don't be surprised if he leaves the game with over five catches. Tennesse, on the other hand, has struggled up front on offense. They have one of the best WR cores in the conference but have not been able to get it to them. Additionally, Jones abandons the run late.  Tennessee is a 6 point favorite. I will take the Hogs in the upset. 

Ole Miss at Florida- Florida has shown some real moxy, especially last week in a come from behind win against Tennessee. But, I said before the season that Tennessee was the most over-hyped team in the land. Though they are talented, the aren't THAT talented. And, they certainly aren't well coached, especially in tight games. People aren't very high on Ole Miss, despite what they have already accomplished. People need to wake up and realize that Ole Miss may be the best over-all team in the SEC. If they can get any semblance of a running game, they will win the SEC. Line is Florida +7. I will take Ole Miss and the points. I don't think it will even be close.

Alabama at Georgia- This is everyone's game of the week and it is tough to call. When is the last time Alabama has lost two conference games back to back? Has it been since 2007? That's an impressive stat in and of itself. Everyone is sure to recall how good the last meeting between these two was. The only difference in that game and this one may come down to Georgia's Lambert. The one time Virginia QB doesn't look anything like the player who threw more INTs than TDs as a Cavalier. The run game is as good as it has ever been at Georgia. The defense has improved. Alabama, on the other hand, also has questions at QB, which is something they did not have in the last meeting. The real match-up is going to be the Georgia WRs vs the Bama DBs and vice-versa. Neither have played well in the last few years. Every other match-up looks to be strength on strength. But, Malcolm Mitchel is healthy for the first time and he could make the difference. On the other side, UGA keeps replacing starters each and every year in the defensive backfield. No WR has stood out for Alabama. The line is UGA -2. I will take them in the points.