Monday, September 14, 2015

Best5Zach's Week 3 SEC Picks

Follow me on Facebook, YouTube,  and Twitter!

In case you missed it, go brush up on last week's picks

Yeah, I took a beating this week. I know it. I got cute in fantasy football and went 1-5. Luckily I will be 2-0 in NFL fantasy.

How about the SEC picks? Well, glad you asked. 

I got the Sooners over UT pick. TECHNICALLY I called it correctly. 

The line was LSU-4 and I took the Bulldogs. Sure, you could say that I meant I was taking the Dogs as winners. You would be correct. So, I guess I will take my lumps and call it a L. 

Not so much for the USC-Kentucky game. I just blew it. To be honest, I never really looked in to the game. I just didn't think it possible for Spurrier to lose back to back games against the 'Cats. I guess it happens. 

1-2 ain't so good. That brings me to 4-3 over all. 

South Carolina at Georgia- This game was simply mystifying last year. Everyone remembers how this game went. Needing a TD, Mike Bobo DIDN'T run Gurley three or four downs in a row. Instead, he went to the pass. They lost and now Bobo is coaching at Colorado State. South Carolina hasn't looked like a competent team yet. They looked about the same way last year before beating Georgia. 

Vegas has the 'Dogs as a 17 point favorite. This is a dangerous play. UGA is going to win this game. After getting beat last year, they may want to put it on the 'Cocks. I'm going to say that UGA wins, but doesn't cover. 

Florida at Kentucky-Kentucky beat a struggling South Carolina this past week and broke a 22-game losing streak. Consider, however, that Kentucky returned a two-point conversion that was the final margin. They had only four first downs in the second half, three coming in the final drive to secure the win. South Carolina was playing their backup QB. 

Florida beat a East Carolina team that lost some top production last year, yet still put up 24 points on a Gator defense that was supposed to be among the best. Missed fieldgoals and penalties hamstrung the Gators who ended up forcing a late fumble to secure the win. 

Of these two games, one has to consider the tirade that McElwain had about his players not taking ECU seriously which undoubtedly led to this close game. 

Kentucky has given up 55 points so far. While they are 2-0, they gave up 33 to the Ragin' Cajuns. 

Kentucky's Boom Williams is averaging over 10 yards per carry and is largely responsible for their wins. Towles is completing a little over 50% of his passes and averages under 8 yards per completion. Florida is going to stack the box, make them throw the ball down the field where Hargraves and Co will take over and that will be that. 

Vegas has the Gators -3. I'll take the Gators and the points. 

Auburn at LSU- I don't know how anyone can watch the two performances by Jeremy Johnson and not immediately doubt this game. Auburn's defense has also struggled without Carl Lawson. Auburn's defense could not get off the field until JSU's last drive. 

Is it possible that the Auburn coaching staff is about to pull the world's best "gotcha" on LSU? Maybe. But doubtful.  Auburn does have history on it's side. LSU is almost impossible to beat at night in Death Valley. However, they are on the losing end of statistics in day games. Guess what, this is a day game. I am doing this post on a Monday when no one knows the status of four different Auburn defense starters and the best offensive lineman. Jeremy Johnson's play already puts things in doubt. With the probability that some of those guys don't play, specifically Lawson, I see LSU winning this game. Vegas has LSU -7.5. I'm taking LSU and the points. 

Ole Miss at Alabama-This is the real matchup of the week. Everyone recalls what happened last year's matchups from the state of Alabama. Alabama lost and Auburn won. This year is going to be flip-flopped. Alabama is going to narrowly win this game and Auburn is going to get blown out. Ole Miss has looked unstoppable in their tune up games. Alabama hasn't looked great. Both are unbeaten. Alabama's win against Wisconsin was just the kind of physical game a team needs to kick off the season. Ole Miss hasn't had that yet and it will be a rude awakening. The Ole Miss defense is good again this year, but they haven't had to match up with SEC talent. Recall just how many playmakers they lost, especially on the back end of the defense. 

The line is Bama -7. I'd take them and the points.