Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Start 'Em/Sit 'Em Week Three: QB Edition

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For the most part, I was on target for most of last week's Start 'Em/Sit 'Em. The issue for me was that my opponents had record weeks across the board. I went 1-6 with some big hits and misses. Of note was scoring over 200 points and still managing to lose. I did manage to cash a check on Draftkings, so there is that. You can read last week's articles below.

Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for Week Two: QB and RB Edition


Let's get to it. 

The following QBs are those that I currently own and are not on BYEs

Driskel has performed as expected thus far. But, he gets Kansas State this week. The 'Cats are known for stingy defense and they have allowed only 3 points this season. They are allowing 49 rushing yards and just under 200 passing yards per game. While shut outing South Dakota isn't a feat, UTSA put up 22 points on #22 Arizona. That's no feat, either, but the fact is that Kansas State's defense is still stout. Use Driskel at your own risk. I'd pick up a FA and sit Driskel. 

Kessler has a solid day last week, but playing Driskel over him was still the better play. Kessler gets Stanford this week in a serious rivalry game. Stanford's defense is also a historically vaunted unit. Stanford lost it's opener to Northwestern in one of the biggest surprises this year. The defense played solid against UCF. However, UCF is dreadful. Stanford seems to be vulnerable to the run, which means a heavy dose of a Trojan run game. Keep in mind that the Trojans won 13-10 last year strictly running the ball. Kessler has one of the worst night's of his career. He is a player many feel disappears in big games. I'd avoid, if possible. If you are in a two QB league, however, this could be a sneaky play if you want to go out on a limb. I wouldn't. There are FAs out there. 

Kyle Allen has been pulled in the second half in both games, limiting his upside. He has still been productive, averaging over 21 points per game. But, that isn't the type of player that is winning you games early in the season. Nevada gives up over 250 passing yards per game. In particular, Arizona carved them up with an offense that is similar to what the Aggies will field. Anu Soloman was pulled early 4th quarter in the Arizona game. If Allen can make it that far, it will be enough. Keep in mind that TAMU has Arkansas next week. So, the likelihood that Allen does play late is again a very unlikely scenario. If you want a 25 point lock with no upside, this is it. 

Marquis Williams has been a dreadful fantasy player thus far. Thank his coaching staff. If there is one constant in the world, it is that coaches always try and make a run-first athlete into a pocket passer. It has never been more evident than with Williams. He gets an Illinois team that has allowed a total of 3 points averages giving up under 200 yards. Most important is the 5 INTs they have recorded. However, those teams have been less than impressive. After the blowback that the UNC staff has received, plan on a scoring outburst from Williams. Start him. 

Dane Evans has OU this week. OU had his number last year in what was a flukey performance. In fact, Evans has struggled with any teams that can field a turn-over based defense. Teams like ECU, UCF, and Houston have kept him in check. Surprisisngly, Temple and Memphis could not, which were the two best defenses he faced last year. His yardage is always going to be solid, but Evans never throws just one INT. It is worth mentioning that he has had solid days against good defenses such as Memphis and Temple. OU has only 1 INT. If Evans can keep from throwing their 2nd, he will have a good day. He is a high reward play. 

Elsewhere
Matt Johnson vs Memphis. I avoid any player playing against Memphis. They haven't recorded a single INT and only one fumble recovery, yet sit at 2-0 allowing under 250 yards per game DESPITE posting blow out wins. While their opener is not worth mentioning, the Kansas win is at least a decent win. Kinner was able to run for 150 yards and a TD. Kansas' QB's weren't as lucky. Johnson may be a top fantasy producer, but I caution against using him. Sit him. 

Drew Hare vs Ohio State. Man, I really want to take a risk on this play. I really do. Hare bombed last year against decent competition. But, he never posted a 70% completion ratio. He has hovered around 80% in both of his games this year. What does he have to do in order to be viable? I'd say that he needs 25 fantasy points. 200 yards passing, 50 rushing, 2 passing TDs and 1 INT and a single rushing TD would net 26 points. Considering his improvement from year 1 to year 2, that shouldn't be a stretch.He hasn't thrown an INT this year, nor has he thrown for under 300. He is not a turnover machine, having thrown very few picks last year. Against OSU, expect him to revert to a run-first guy. I think he has a nice week, even if NIU gets blown out. 

Mason Rudolph gets UTSA this week. He only has 3 passing TDs despite the high volume of passing and yards. I venture a guess that he has a 3 PaT day against the Roadrunners. This is a 30-point play waiting to happen. Start him. 

McGough from Florida International has gotten off to a solid start. UCF held him in check, which isn't a surprise. Indiana was unable to stop him, but his stat line isn't impressive because he had 3 turnovers. This guy is a 35+ attempt guy who also adds quality rushes. He has FCC this week. Play him and thank me later. Start him.