Tuesday, September 22, 2015

SEC Week 4 Picks

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In case you missed it, go brush up on last week's picks
A quick recap: I went on to a total record of 6-4 against the spread. That may not sound awesome (and it's not), but it also isn't have bad considering I am picking against the spread in the toughest conference in the land. Truth be told, it's probably better than the handicapper who you are paying. But, I digress.

My misses were Bama and the points. 5 turnovers later, Bama not only didn't cover, but lost. Should have won. Should have covered. Didn't.

Georgia, however, did cover the spread. I said they wouldn't. Desperation is a stinky cologne. I picked Georgia to drop the spread simply because of the man in the visor. Oh well.

LSU covered and so did Florida. I got those right.

Tennessee at Florida-Tennessee took it's lumps against Oklahoma. I wasn't surprised by that loss. Dobbs hasn't exploded as many thought he would. In fact, of his five TDs, four were thrown against Bowling Green and Western Carolina. His lone pick? Against Oklahoma. They have been very good with the run, but the run game was abandoned when it was crunch time. That's something to consider. 

Florida is giving up 50 rushing yards a game and 200 passing yards a game, totaling in 15 points allowed. They have picked off 4 INTs.  They have 12 sacks. Major advantage to Florida in this department. 

Flipping sides, Tennessee is allowing 153 rushing yards against teams that aren't running teams. They are also surrendering 240 passing yards per game and 26 points a contest. Bowling Green gave them a scare for a half. They have five sacks and 5 INTs. 

Florida was shut out in the second half against Kentucky. Their other games were no-contests. The quarterbacks aren't playing great. They have six TDs to two INTs, but the yards per completion are under ten yards. Additionally, the run game hasn't been SEC-worthy, averaging under 4.5 YPC. Advantage Tennessee. 

Ultimately, I believe Florida has a better coach and the game is in the Swamp. The line is Florida -1. I will take Florida and the points. Maybe next year, Tennessee. 

Missouri at Kentucky-Missouri continues to be a team that wins despite itself. It has yet to look like an SEC East contender, but it's impossible to ignore that it is undefeated. Kentucky is not, after the dreadful play of Towles, which is reminiscent of last year after they started 6-0. Missouri has thrown five INTs, four of those by Mauk who is as surprisingly bad as Jeremy Johnson at Auburn. The Tigers have no run game to speak of, though Hansbrough has been limited to seven total carries. That will change this week. 

Though Missouri's offense hasn't been very good, the defense has. It is holding offenses to under ten points a game and right at 200 yards per game. They have forced six turnovers. Kentucky has thrown four INTs and fumbled four times, all lost. 

Kentucky holds a slim line. I will take Missouri. 

Texas A&M at Arkansas-This is a desperation game for Arkansas. What happened to this program? TAMU is humming right along. This game is listed TAMU -7. After seeing what Arkansas has to offer, there is no way I wouldn't take TAMU and the points. Nothing else needs to be said. 

Mississippi State at Auburn-Auburn is favored by a field goal, something that is simply baffling. That was BEFORE White was named starter. This is the lone game where the desperation factor comes in to play. It reminds me of the 2009 Iron Bowl, in many ways. That being said, a close game until the fourth doesn't matter. It's certainly possible for Auburn to rebound, but regardless of what the offense does, the defense is the worst SEC defense I have seen. I will take State. I hope I am wrong.